Matt Grudnoff
Senior Economist
We might have finally seen a change that will help make housing more affordable.
Sure, there have been plenty of announcements on housing affordability. Politicians like nothing more than announcing a new policy, regardless of whether it will actually work.
But the financial regulator has just said that it is going to start restricting lending, and these restrictions are likely to mainly impact investors. I wrote about this earlier in the week when there was talk that something might happen.
APRA, the financial regulator, is worried about risking borrowing and today announced that no more than 20% of new lending can go to borrowers with debt-to-income ratios of greater than 6 times. So, if your household income was $150,000 a year you could face restrictions if you wanted to borrow more than $900,000.
APRA is worried about too much risky lending and what that might mean for the whole financial system if we have downturn.
But why will this mainly impact investors and more importantly, why might it make housing more affordable?
Investors are far more likely to have high debt-to-income ratios. Most investors are already wealthy and can put up substantial amounts of collateral. This means banks are willing to offer them larger mortgages.
It will make housing more affordable because the insane house prices that we are seeing are mainly being driven by investor demand for housing. If investors find it harder to get mortgages, that means that less investors are going to buy, making room for first home buyers to get a place of their own.
It is important to note that the restrictions that APRA announced are very weak. Restricting debt to six times income for 20% of new mortgages is not much of a restriction, since it’s only 7% at the moment.
But with the latest data from the ABS showing investor lending is rapidly ramping up on the back of three interest rates cuts this year, it could put some important guardrails on this lending.
The government could do much more to make housing more affordable. As we have suggested previously, they could tell APRA to consider housing affordability when it is setting its lending rules.
They could also stop the main source of all these problems, the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing. These are the massive tax concessions that are drawing investors into the housing market. Cut them off and we get much closer to more affordable housing.