LIVE

Thu 29 Oct

The Point Live: Final day of House sitting in the shadow of inflation, estimates continues. As it happened.

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst and Political Blogger

This blog is now closed.

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The Day's News

Factcheck: Three misconceptions about inflation, government spending and taxes

Jack Thrower

Much of the media and political class is repeating a lot of nonsense about government spending, taxes, and inflation, mostly to claim that the Government needs to make big spending cuts. Let’s go through three misconceptions.

  1. Does the Government need to make big spending cuts to tackle inflation?

No. Much of Australia’s inflation comes from supply shocks (eg high fuel prices and flow-ons), not excessive demand. Even if governments do want to reduce demand in the economy, cutting public spending is only one option. Instead, they could raise taxes, such as on gas exports or wealth, or intervene in other ways. For instance, if there are supply constraints in construction, one way to free up labour and materials would be bans on new fossil fuel projects or a moratorium on constructing giant data centres.

  1. Are cuts justified because Australia’s government spending is historically high?

No. While it is true that public spending is quite high in historical terms, this is not a problem in itself, and is actually highly predictable. As societies get richer and older (as Australia has), the public demands more social services such as education, healthcare and social care (aged, disability, child etc). Leaving social services to the private market leads to failure, as shown by economic theory and experience. This means Australia has the choice of either higher public spending, privatised failure, or (too often) a combination of these two.

  1. Is ‘cutting middle-class welfare’ (means-testing social spending) needed and progressive?

Commentators claim that Australia needs to means-test things like the NDIS, the Child Care Subsidy and Aged Care subsidies in order to avoid giving help to richer people.

This is misguided, often economically inefficient, and frankly morally wrong.

Firstly, it fundamentally misunderstands the point of social spending. Social spending is not just about moving money from rich to poor; it also has a ‘social insurance’ role: it insures or protects everyone against certain risks to their livelihoods, such as sickness and disability, and helps smooth consumption across people’s lives, meaning they experience less hardship in harder times (such as parenthood).

While cutting social services by introducing means testing is framed as ensuring that “those who can pay more” do so, it actually just means people with disabilities or illnesses pay more, while the healthy, able-bodied rich are let off the hook. If Australia wants rich people to pay more into the system, we should tax the rich directly.

Means-testing systems also create inefficiencies and harm poorer people; they require complex bureaucracies to manage and construct barriers to people accessing benefits. Applicants will now have to fill out additional complicated paperwork to prove their income and assets, often leading people to slip through the cracks.

See you next month?

The orange Cockatoo representing the absent member for Indi Helen Haines remains in place 4 days after it was placed there by the member for Warringah Zali Steggall during question time in the House of Representatives chamberof Parliament House, Canberra this afternoon. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October

And on that note, on what has been a hard, and at times, broken week of sitting, we are going to close up The Point Live until the next sitting.

We are told that Helen Haines is in good spirits. Her electorate office re-opened today. We hope her staff are getting all the love, as we continue to think of Helen and her family and loved ones in all of the ways.

And I hope you also extend some of that love to yourself and those around you. Next week’s rate rise is going to be tough. It’s going to be a long end of the year and it won’t be easy on anyone. So make sure you take care of you.

Until next time – cause good trouble. Ax

Gas exporters still the biggest reason for ‘gas shortages’

Matt Saunders

New data from the ABS confirms, once again, that the biggest user of domestic gas is the gas export industry.

The new data shows the mining industry used over $30 billion worth of domestic gas in 2024–25. The vast majority of this gas, around 87%, is used by the gas export industry to run the huge refrigerators that convert natural gas destined for export into liquid form, making it easier to load onto ships bound for Asia.

Compared with the $30 billion worth of gas used by the mining industry, just $5 billion was used in manufacturing, $2.5 billion in electricity generation, and $8.9 billion by households. In fact, the value of gas used by the mining industry is greater than all other industries and sectors combined.

The kicker is that while households actually paid around $8.9 billion for their gas, the gas export industry paid very little for the enormous amount of gas it used.

So, when you next read claims that Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia, or even Australia is about to run out of gas, just remember: Big Gas is still taking the piss, while using way more gas than anyone else.

Female politicians bridge divide to unite against abuse

Emily Woods for AAP

Female members of parliament are putting their political differences aside to build a network following the alleged attack on independent MP Helen Haines and increasing abuse towards women in office.

Women from across the political spectrum in the House of Representatives and Senate are being invited to join a new Network of Women in Parliament to build connections and provide a safe space to support one another.

Minister for Women Katy Gallagher, shadow minister for women Melissa McIntosh MP and Independent Rebekha Sharkie announced the initiative in Canberra on Thursday.

“We may have political differences, probably more times than not, but we’re not going to have political differences when it comes to the safety of our fellow women colleagues in parliament,” Ms McIntosh said.

“Differences are going to really be squashed when it comes to encouraging other women across our nation into politics and showing them that this parliament here in Canberra is very much a place for women as well.”

Senator Gallagher said women parliamentarians all had a similar story and were experiencing more sexualised and personal abuse than their male colleagues.

“All members of parliament are being inundated with abuse and threats, and often threats of physical harm and violence,” she told reporters.

“But women, I think, get more of it, and the nature of that abuse is more sexualised.

“Often women can feel quite isolated, as a parliamentarian. Creating this network is about just coming together, sharing that experience, a bit of solidarity and support when it’s needed, and building trust over time.”

Senator Gallagher said she was one of 58 MPs using an app to remove problematic or threatening comments from their social media, which was being offered to female parliamentarians as a free trial.

The app had hidden or removed 21,000 comments from her pages since she had been using it, she said.

The announcement comes 10 days after Ms Haines was struck repeatedly by a four-wheel drive outside her Wangaratta office, resulting in the loss of both her legs.

She remained in a serious but stable condition at The Alfred hospital in Melbourne on Thursday morning.

Independent MP Rebekha Sharkie (file image)
Rebekha Sharkie believes crossbench colleague Helen Haines would welcome the initiative. (Lukas Coch/AAP PHOTOS)

Since the attack, several other incidents of abuse towards females in office have occurred, including a man who allegedly wielded a weapon and threatened staff at Labor MP Hannah Beazley’s electorate office in Western Australia.

On Wednesday, police in South Australia cautioned a 44-year-old man with stalking over separate incidents involving two female SA MPs.

Ms Sharkie, who sits in front of Ms Haines in parliament and considers her a dear friend, said she would be happy about the announcement.

“This is about bringing us together. This is about light in a time of darkness, and this is about the future,” she said.

The network will be officially launched at Parliament House on November 24.

Estimates: NDIS fraud watch – leave it to the professionals

Greg Jericho

The National Disability Insurance Agency has been before the Senate and Senator Hanson wants to know about fraud.

This is because talking about fraud and the NDIS is an easy way for conservatives (and the government) to justify the cuts and also from One Nation perspective blaming the government for not getting back tax payer funds.

Since November 2022 there have been 27 convictions for fraud and the biggest jail sentence is 7 1/2 years. We are also told (but not the dollar amount) that there has been quite a lot of money and property recovered – including gold bullion. No doubt that would be “proceeds of crime”.

Pauline Hanson wants to know the nationality of the people. Gee wonder why she wants to know that?

She is told that the vast majority of the people are Australian citizens.

At this point Hanson mentions two online activists (and that’s being polite) Drew Pavlou and Pete Zogoulas who are going around claiming they have uncovered stonks of fraud in the NDIS. The deputy head of NDIA rightly give the pair little consideration and says if they have information to alert the NDIA through the tip off hotline, and he wants to “strongly discourage” citizen investigations.

He notes that the actual people who investigate such fraud are experienced, qualified, have access to data that can give insight of whether there is fraud and also know how to obey the law and crucially investigate fraud in a way that doesn’t mean an innocent person is not wrongly targeted.

He also suggests that a big concern is such citizen wannabe investigators can also tip off potential fraudsters before they can be arrested which means evidence can be destroyed or potentially the fraudsters can flee the country.

He suggest they “are not particularly useful or helpful”.

Indeed.

The view from Bowers: QT

The Prime Minister Anthony Albanese talks to the Treasurer Jim Chalmers during question time in the House of Representatives chamberof Parliament House, Canberra this afternoon. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October
The member for New England Barnaby Joyce during question time in the House of Representatives chamberof Parliament House, Canberra this afternoon. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October
The member for Wentworth Allegra Spender and the member for Curtin Kate Chaney during question time in the House of Representatives chamberof Parliament House, Canberra this afternoon. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October
The member for New England Barnaby Joyce during question time in the House of Representatives chamberof Parliament House, Canberra this afternoon. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October

How policy reform saved superannuants some $48 billion

David Richardson

The Australia Institute has just released a new report on superannuation default arrangements.

Once upon a time superannuation was a preserve of the better off, mainly white-collar workers, managers and many public servants. Women largely missed out on superannuation.

During the early 1980s some unions took on the issue and argued for extending superannuation to the blue-collar workforce. Initially this was an industrial relations issue and there were limited gains in the form of industry superannuation, especially for building industry workers in the beginning.

Further initiatives came during the Hawke/Keating Labor Governments (1983 to 1996) which extended superannuation to all employees under the compulsory super guarantee. Contribution rates were also gradually increased so that today a worker with an unbroken work history can accumulate sufficient wealth to continue their lifestyle into retirement.

There were bumps along the way. Employers may have been obliged to offer super to their workers but there were no stipulations as to the quality of the super schemes being offered to workers. Most workers had no interest in super nor could they know what funds might be best for them.

Beginning around 2008 the Australia Institute was publishing research which drew attention to the fact that some workers were diddled with employers guiding them into funds with low returns and high management fees. Accordingly the Australia institute  argued for a default scheme that guaranteed workers good returns, low fees and no penalties on exits nor joining fees. By 2014 reforms to superannuation were introduced to give effect to the arguments arising out of Australia Institute’s research. MySuper funds which are eligible to be used as default funds gave effect to those reforms. MySuper funds are subject to monitoring and control by the Australian Prudential  Regulatory Authority to make sure they reach performance standards.

We are now in a position to estimate how much these reforms have saved for those with superannuation. Overall, the reduction in management fees have resulted in savings of $48 billion to June 2025 based on analysis of APRA statistics. That figure could be around $55 billion when APRA eventually publishes figures to June 2026.

Question time ends

And we are done. Have we learned anything? As we said yesterday – of course not. This is question time, not answer time and it’s even worse when most of the questions are ridiculous.

Back to 2014

Q: Convicted terrorist and ISIS commander Isaac Almatari, a known associate of the alleged surviving Bondi terrorist, is set to walk free from jail this Sunday.

Despite his history of plotting terror attacks on Australian soil, why has the minister failed to seek a continuing detention order to keep this dangerous terrorist off our streets?

This is part of the building ‘you can’t keep us safe’ case the Coalition is trying to build, with help from right wing media. Tony Burke is ready for this one though:

Thank you very much, mr. Speaker, and I thank the member for the question because we are we are talking about someone who has engaged in in views and planning that is beyond contempt, beyond contempt.

The first way and the most powerful way that we are able to keep the community safe from people like that is through the criminal offenses that we’ve established. Now he was sentenced in 2021.

He was found guilty of acting in preparation for a terrorist attack.

We had allowed that to have a maximum sentence of life imprisonment, and he was given four years and six months.

He was convicted of preparing to enter into a foreign country to engage in hostilities.

On that again, we had set a maximum sentence of life imprisonment, and he was given six years.

The full aggregated sentence he received was seven years and four months. The

non-parole period he was given was five years and six months.

The most challenge-proof way to keep the community safe is for someone like that to be in prison, and I think we would all have similar questions about the gap between the maximum penalties we had made available and where this has landed.

There are two different methods that then become available.

One to be able, with much more limited legal power, when someone has been released at the end of those sentences, much more limited power for us to try to restrain that person further.

The first is the reference that you gave with respect to the Department of Home Affairs, which has particularly through various decisions that have come through the High Court, has very high thresholds you have to be able to meet.

Had we been able to meet those thresholds, the Department of Home Affairs would have been in court the next day. The second method that’s available is for the Australian Federal Police to seek a control order, and I am pleased to say they did go to court and seek a control order. And I’m pleased to advise the House that earlier today, the court agreed to allow that interim control order.

Hmmmmmm

Independent MP Andrew Wilkie then asks a question that someone should have probably have asked Amanda Rishworth on Monday:

Minister, the Commonwealth Ombudsman found the mutual obligations system for those on Jobseeker and other payments was operating unlawfully, with grave consequences.

Tens of thousands of people had their payments wrongly cancelled, reduced or suspended. The Government subsequently paused sections of the system, but some this week have restarted.

So Minister, what has been done to fix the system, and do you have confidence that it is now being run lawfully?”

Hmmm, unclear. It’s basically – we are told it has been fixed, so here’s hoping!

Rishworth:

The Albanese Labor government understands the importance of ensuring government systems operate effectively, particularly when interacting with vulnerable people.

And I, as minister, expect the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations to take all necessary steps to ensure that processes and systems it uses in administering the targeted compliance framework operate in accordance with the law.

The department accepted all recommendations of the Commonwealth Ombudsman’s recent report related to the targeted compliance framework, and our government made 48.8 million dollars available to strengthen the integrity of that system that administers the targeted compliance framework, including to address the recommendations of the Commonwealth Ombudsman.

The department has undertaken significant work to address findings from the Commonwealth Ombudsman and other issues that were identified as a result of legislation changes in early 2022 that facilitated the introduction of Workforce Australia by the former government.

The significant work undertaken includes IT system improvements, intensive testing, which will continue to ensure the system operates as intended. It has improved notifications for participants, improved provider guidance, and introduced the introduction of improved provider training, the development of clear and consistent complaints and review processes, process information alongside Services Australia have also been introduced, along with greater mandatory annual training for all staff, which covers decision making under legislation, the exercise of discretion, and good practices around making decisions that are valid and lawful, the secretary has provided the government with assurances that decision making under the elements of the targeted compliance framework that resumed this week are operating in accordance with the law.

The secretary has informed me that IT systems will continue to be tested to ensure any payment cancelations and notifications are operating lawfully, and regular meetings will occur with Services Australia and the Department of Social Services to support ongoing assurance activities.

The Secretary has established a dedicated assurance function within the department to provide ongoing oversight of system integrity, and I can assure the member that our government takes these issues very seriously, and it is my expectation that this work will continue to be undertaken as a matter of priority to ensure that all systems are operating as intended.

Three for one

Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson is evicted from the chamber under standing order 94A during question time in the House of Representatives chamber of Parliament House, Canberra this afternoon. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October

Milton Dick has just booted David Littleproud, Tim Wilson and Phil Thompson from the chamber for interjections.

“Unbelievable,” says Milton Dick who is all very sick of these people

QT whiplash

We go from some actual heartfelt words of agreement about police who have died in the line of duty to…

My question is to the Prime Minister. The Reserve Bank has said government spending is adding to the likelihood of further interest rate hikes. Beta Shares chief economist David Bassis has said every serious economist in the country would acknowledge that public spending has been contributing to inflation. The average new mortgage holder is already paying $30,000 more per year because of the 16 interest rate rises under your government. Why do Australians always pay the price? Because the Prime Minister can’t ever admit he’s made a mistake.

That last bit is the new focus group line.

Jim Chalmers takes this one as well:

I think, as I said yesterday, in response to a similar question from another honourable member, the fact that public demand is part of aggregate demand has not been contested by any objective observer. It’s not been contested by us, which is the point that economists have made. I’ve made that point throughout the course of the year. I think, on at least half a dozen different occasions.

The issue with inflation in our economy right now is really a function of two things.

First of all, much quicker than anticipated recovery in the private sector. [Treasury] Secretary Wilkinson and [RBA] Governor Bullock have both referenced that in the past.

And secondly, obviously, the escalation in fuel prices that came from the biggest oil shock in the history of the world, and I think it’s a bit unusual, Mr. Speaker, if we can acknowledge that we had an inflation challenge in our economy, which is made worse by the war in the Middle East.

I find it bizarre, frankly, that those opposite won’t acknowledge what was factually the biggest driver of yesterday’s inflation figures, which was higher petrol prices. Just a fact in the ABS data, and it’s this kind of weird post-truth stuff that they get engaged in. It’s this weird post-truth stuff that they get engaged in, where they they see the same ABS data that we see, and the biggest driver of yesterday’s inflation number, which was too high, was was fuel. You can see it in the numbers that were released yesterday.

And so, and I was also asked about the comments from the Reserve Bank governor. This is what the Reserve Bank governor said yesterday: the conflict in the Middle East, has reescalated, and global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts. Oil and related prices have increased sharply again, and will add materially to inflation, both directly and indirectly, as businesses facing increasing pressure from higher transport and related costs attempt to pass them on. That’s what the governor of the Reserve Bank said yesterday, Mr. Speaker.

Now, any objective observer of the economy and of budgets knows that budgets aren’t the primary determinant of prices in our economy. But we can continue to play a helpful role, and we will continue to manage the budget in a responsible way. Every single one of our eight budgets and budget updates had savings in it, and our ninth will as well. The mid-year update that we release in December will have savings in it as well, Mr. Speaker. And that’s because we acknowledge that the primary driver of the higher inflation in yesterday’s figures was a consequence in the war of the war in the Middle East, which has been disastrous from a cost of living point of view.

But we will continue to play a helpful role where we can.

Berries and Cream berries and creams.

Tim Wilson is up and is now criticising the prime minister for going to the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting next week (CHOGM) which seems very dumb, and very on brand.

The Treasurer Jim Chalmers during question time in the House of Representatives chamberof Parliament House, Canberra this afternoon. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October

Question:

Treasury has confirmed your government has spent over $100 billion more than it has saved, fuelling inflation and driving up interest rates. Next week, after the Prime Minister has jetted off to the Caribbean, the RBA is expected to raise interest rates for the 17th time under Labor to the highest levels since 2008.

Will the Treasurer finally take responsibility and admit his out-of-control spending is forcing Australian families to pay more for everything?

I refer you to Jack’s post just before this one on why this is a ridiculous line.

Here is Chalmers’ answer:

You can tell from that question that nothing makes the shadow treasurer happier than the prospect of an interest rate rise, Mr. Speaker.

You can tell, you can tell from his question, Mr. Speaker, that that is the case. Now, when it comes to responsible economic management, I would stack up our record on managing the budget against their record any day.

Their last budget didn’t have any savings in it, Mr. Speaker. We’ve had savings in all eight of our budgets and budget updates, Mr. Speaker.

We have had we have had eight in a row, Mr. Speaker. Eight budgets and budget updates, without with with every single one of them’s had a budget saving.

It their last budget didn’t have any savings in it. That’s the first point.

The second point, Mr. Speaker, is that our last two budget updates? The net policy decisions have been positive rather than negative. Not something that those opposite were able to manage. Mr. Speaker, 180 billion dollars in savings, including more than 60 billion dollars in savings in our last budget, which is a record for the Commonwealth. mr. Speaker, and that goes to our responsible approach to managing the budget.

Now, the reason, Mr. Speaker, that their argument about spending and inflation, like the Liberal Party itself, is falling down all around them, is because they have, even after the half-baked so-called announcements of savings that they made on Monday, they still have 110 billion dollars of unfunded commitments just since the election.

Just since the election, so by their own logic, by their own logic, the policies that they have announced would mean 110 billion dollars in bigger deficits, and by their logic, higher inflation and higher interest rates, mr. Speaker. Now, the number that the Shadow Treasurer refers to, and the reason they sometimes use these numbers, is that they are implying that some of the spending in the budget, which is the indexation of the age pension and other pensions, that somehow that they wouldn’t go, they wouldn’t see the indexation of the pension.

So let every pensioner know. Let every pensioner in this country know that when they try to make up the difference, the 110 billion dollars that they have committed to, Mr. Speaker, that they don’t support new taxation of pensions and payments in the budget, Mr. Speaker. They’ve got a 110 billion dollar hole in their budget, they cannot fill it without going after Medicare again, without going after pensions and payments again, because that’s how they roll, Mr Speaker.

If their argument is that bigger deficits means higher inflation, then they have to explain why they’ve got 110 billion dollars extra bigger deficits in their proposals that they put before the Australian people. We’ve got a record of managing the budget responsibly, and they don’t.

West Wing is the worst.

Angus Taylor asks one of those political questions that seem to be written by someone sitting in tactics hearing the West Wing theme soaring in their heads. This will get them!

Anyways, it’s the usual – why are you lying to us, why are you so terrible at being prime minister types of questions, so the detail doesn’t matter.

Albanese is annoyed though. Here is how he answers it:

Frankly, on a day, on a day after we had yesterday’s inflation figures, where the government is dealing with an economic response to that, it is astonishing. It is astonishing that they continue continue to get their advice from their friends who used to be have a role in this place and don’t anymore, but have slots on media.

Now, what we do is focus on the big issues facing Australians. How do we, at a time of global inflationary pressures, get inflation down? How do we, at a time of fuel insecurity, secure fuel for Australians? How do we, at a time of cost of living pressures, give support to people in ways which don’t put pressure on inflation, but which deal with short-term issues and providing short-term relief while building longer-term support?

And that’s why we do things which are serious, such as free TAFE, that lowers the costs of people undertaking TAFE, but builds our skill base. That’s why we tripled the bulk billing incentive, so that more people can see a doctor for free whilst building Medicare for the future.

That’s why we’re building as well agreements such as the EU Free Trade Agreement, which are not only important for our jobs and our economy, but also about building our national security. Because what that does, that diversification of trade, is it builds the diversification of those relationships and makes us less reliant as at the end of supply chains. This is a government that is serious about meeting the challenges which modern Australia is facing.

Do it in a way that protects as best as possible the people that we are elected to serve. We take these issues very seriously, just as we take issues seriously of protecting children through the digital duty of care.

This is a government that is focused, focused on the needs of Australians.

Will the government legislate to ensure that new data centers are not permitted to use expensive, polluting backup diesel generators?

Independent MP Monique Ryan then asks a question that Australians might care about, or at least something that will impact their cost of living.

Prime Minister, Australia is the largest sea-born importer of diesel in the world. Many of our data centers are powered by backup diesel generation. That adds more sovereign risk and cost to a vulnerable supply chain.

Most communities want any new data centers to be powered by 100% renewable energy. Will the government legislate to ensure that new data centers are not permitted to use expensive, polluting backup diesel generators?

Albanese:

I thank the member for her question, and the minister will supplement the answer, but we are very determined to develop AI standards which are for Australia and which are world’s best practice. That includes making sure that we deal with issues such as energy, such as water, such as location to make sure that it truly serves Australia’s national interest. AI can drive our productivity and can make an enormous difference for Australia, given the comparative advantage that we have in this country. One of the issues we have to deal with and is being dealt with by the committee as well that’s dealing with it across the Parliament is the issue of energy, and I’d ask the minister to supplement.

Chris Bowen:

Well, thanks, Mr. Speaker. Thanks, the Prime Minister. Thanks, the Member for Kooyong. As the Prime Minister has indicated, we are absolutely determined to make sure that the very significant pipeline of data centre investment in Australia is in the best interests of Australians, and that means ensuring that these data centres bring their own new energy, and that energy should be the cheapest form of energy, Mr. Speaker, which we all agree with, which is a good thing, and I’m sure honourable members will therefore agree with the approach of the government.

And the approach of the government agreed through the Energy Ministers’ Council is to send a rule change to the Australian Energy Market Commission, which has gone, which will require, if it’s approved by the Australian Energy Market Commission, to require new data centers to bring their own new energy, with a particular focus* on renewable energy. With, as I’m sure, honourable members would agree, gas is an appropriate peaking and firming facility to ensure, as a sensible approach would apply, Mr. Speaker, as a sensible approach would apply….I apologise. I’ve triggered them, Mr. Speaker. I’ve triggered them. (The Coalition is upset)

That’s my fault, Mr. Speaker. I’ve triggered them.

We will continue to work through the consultation paper that the Prime Minister has released on AI standards. is very, very clear about our approach, as is the rule change, as is the legislation that the government has made clear we are developing, and of course will, in due course, make its way through the House.

*Particular focus is not ONLY. That’s an important point here.

Sewerage-gate rolls on

We get another question on the sewerage grant for a Marrickville golf course that ended up not being for sewerage because the state government stepped in to fix the sewerage but Albanese said it was for sewerage in parliament, so then had to say he was wrong, it is no longer for sewerage, and this is a story because he had an undeclared membership to the golf course he said he didn’t know about because it was from about 15 years ago and also he doesn’t play golf and also he hasn’t been to the golf course other than to walk his dog in the public part of it, and we were talking about grants and transparency but now we are talking sewerage and who knew what when and who didn’t know what and honestly? People are dying, Kim.

Question time begins

But not before the prime minister says he agrees that November 11 is sacred. Good, glad we are all across that.

Simon Kennedy starts us back off in sewerage.

My question is to the Prime Minister. Yesterday, the Prime Minister claimed the sewerage works were originally part of the $6 million invite-only taxpayer-funded grant to Maricopa Golf Club, can the Prime Minister explain with a straight face why there’s no mention of the sewerage works in the Prime Minister’s own announcement on March 2025? No mention in the Inner West Council documents. No mention of sewerage works on the Grant Connect website. No mention of sewerage works on the golf club’s website, and no mention of sewerage works in the infrastructure department’s decision brief.

Call to the prime minister.

Anthony Albanese:

On the 27th of April, 2025, we made an election commitment, building and securing the Marrickville Golf Club precinct, that went to a range of activities, including today’s election commitment will go towards delivering an upgrade of the entire precinct that everyone can share in, and ensure this inner west institution can be enjoyed for decades to come.

It included as well. It went on about stormwater being harvested, irrigating the golf course, the upgrade of better indoor amenities with clubhouse renovations and the provision of community meeting and function rooms, and went into boosting the health of the nearby Cooks River, and that was a part of the the mayor of the Inner West Council confirmed that that was a part of the project when he gave evidence before the Senate committee last week. This is a grant to the Inner West Council, an election commitment, just like the member for Cook had four election commitments during during the campaign, during elections campaigns. The member for Cook has asked his question and was shown respect. I’m asking him to show the same respect to the prime minister. If only the former member for Cook was in a position.

Can I make this point? During election campaigns, people make election commitments. We made election commitments. We will deliver on the election commitment, and after we made that commitment, the state government, because it is well known that this was an issue for a long period of time, stepped in in September 2025 and made the commitment.

He then concludes his answer.

Someone needs to update Angus Taylor

You may have seen the giant hullabballoo about a small protest planned by one student group for a protest on November 11, which is Remembrance Day. Well, the students have moved their protest to November 12 after a breakfast TV/conservative meltdown over the small protest.

Someone hasn’t told Angus Taylor, because he is still roaring about it in the MP airing of the grivances.

On Remembrance Day, our nation will pause to honour all Australians who have served, suffered, and sacrificed in wars and military operations for our nation.

Remembrance Day is one of the most sacred on our national calendar. Yet this Remembrance Day, protests have been planned by students and teachers (not sure why he is dragging teachers into this, other than he wants to continue the culture war on education) across Australia. Now, freedom of speech and freedom of protest are core tenets of our democracy, but shame on those who abuse those freedoms and choose Remembrance Day of all those to protest.

What disrespect to the fallen! What disrespect to veterans and their families? What ingratitude and historical ignorance? Choosing Remembrance Day of all days is utterly disgraceful, Deputy Speaker. And let’s not forget how these protests can quickly morph into violent unrest as extremists seize on the opportunity, we’ve seen that elsewhere. Don’t think Australia is immune.

We must protect our way of life. Remembrance Day must not be hijacked. I’m calling on the Prime Minister to join me in condemning these protests. Let’s proudly protect and commemorate this most solemn day for our nation.

So, yeah. Not a thing, but given we are also due for the THEY ARE CANCELLING CHRISTMAS insanity that will no doubt be unhinged this year, expect more and more of this sort of thing. Much easier to get people angry at stuff that isn’t really happening, or certainly isn’t happening in the mainstream, or as a direction, rather than address neoliberalism I guess.

Inquiry needed into peptides says Monique Ryan

Monique Ryan would like an urgent inquiry into peptides in Australia, after a coroner linked peptides to the death of an Australian actor. Given their popularity in a lot of the social spaces, as well as wellness and right wing circles, it is probably a good idea to try and catch this before it goes mainstream, mainstream.

Ryan’s statement is below:

Independent Member for Kooyong, Dr Monique Ryan, has renewed her call for an urgent parliamentary inquiry into Australia’s online healthcare market, after a Victorian coroner found that actor Richard Norton’s death was triggered by unapproved peptides prescribed to him by a doctor. 

On Wednesday, Coroner David Ryan found that Mr Norton, 75, suffered a fatal cardiac arrest after injecting CJC-1295 and ipamorelin sourced from an interstate compounding pharmacy. Neither agent has TGA approval. This is believed to be the first confirmed death in Australia from unapproved peptide use. The coroner has recommended that the TGA consider tougher restrictions on these products. 

“My thoughts are with Mr Norton’s family,” Dr Ryan said. “His death should be a turning point. 

“An expert told the Medical Board there was insufficient evidence that these peptides are safe, effective or beneficial for human use. But the Board found it was reasonable for a doctor to prescribe them. The system allowed it. That’s the problem. 

“The TGA regulates products; AHPRA regulates individual doctors, and nobody regulates the business models driving this market. That gap needs to be closed by Parliament.” 

Mr Norton’s death is not an isolated case. Peptide-related presentations to emergency departments are increasing. Contaminated injections have led to skin grafts and amputations.  

“Influencers are selling these products to young Australians, particularly young men struggling with their body image,” Dr Ryan said. 

“I wrote to the Health Minister in August asking him to refer telehealth and online prescribing to the House Health Committee. Since then a coroner has confirmed a death, and the harm keeps growing. Telehealth has transformed access to care, particularly for rural patients, women and people who can’t easily see a doctor in person. But there are concerns about commercially-driven telehealth models, and the unregulated prescribing of some medications. This inquiry is about protecting good telehealth from profit-driven prescribing, not winding it back. 

“The Government should refer this issue to the Health Committee now.” 

The inquiry Dr Ryan has proposed would examine: 

  • vertically integrated telehealth, pharmacy and retail models
  • oversight of prescribing for medicines with high potential for misuse or harm
  • the pathways that allow unapproved peptides to be prescribed and compounded

gaps in regulatory responsibility between the TGA, AHPRA and the states

MP airing of the grievances

Sometimes it pays to listen in to the members statements – which is known here as the MP airing of the grievances. And that’s because you can get a steer on new lines, new arguments and what you are going to be hearing from the political parties in the coming weeks.

And here we have Andrew Hastie, who is expanding his reach as Coalition spokesperson beyond the guy who pushes back against One Nation, laying out where the Coalition is going for us in 90 seconds:

This Labor government doesn’t get it, and they won’t listen. So let me spell it out: Australian families are hurting, and they feel poorer because they are poorer. Families are drowning in rent and mortgage payments. Their budgets are tighter than ever. Food prices are up, power prices are up, petrol prices are up, and that’s the cost of this Albanese government. And what’s Labor’s answer? More taxes, more spending, and more excuses. Higher taxes on savings, higher taxes on businesses, higher taxes on housing, higher taxes on families.

But do you know what Labor’s biggest tax is? It’s sneaky, it’s silent, it requires no policy announcement, just more spending. Do you know what it is?

It’s Albanese’s inflation, and Albanese’s inflation is a tax on families every single day. The Prime Minister’s inflation is a tax on families every single day at the supermarket, at the petrol bowser, when the power bill arrives, and when Australians ask why life is so expensive, what does Labor do? They blame everybody but themselves. Now families are trimming their budgets, but Labor keeps spending and taxing families with inflation, stealing their purchasing power, taking more tax through bracket creep, families are making changes. It’s time the Albanese government did the same. It’s time for restraint. It’s time for responsibility, because families can’t afford the price of Labor anymore.

I hope I don’t have to say that this is not true, and government spending takes in the states and territories and also, who would you like to cut funding too? (I have some ideas and its not people) But you are going to hear this more and more over the coming months, particularly as Christmas rolls in.

Downhill slide into QT

OK, so we are heading into QT. Grab what you need to get through it. For me, maybe a lobotomy, but that probably won’t be done in time for questions.

Roy Morgan polling: In September 2026 risk of mortgage stress was 31.8%; up a large 7.9% points since January

Roy Morgan have released new polling on mortgage stress:

New research from Roy Morgan shows 31.8% of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to September 2026, down 0.5% points from August 2026, but up a large 7.9% points since January after four interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank (RBA) this year.

After raising interest rates in February (+0.25%), March (+0.25%), May (+0.25%), the RBA elected to leave interest rates unchanged in June and August, before raising interest rates again in late September (+0.25%) to a 15-year high of 4.6%.

A share of 31.8% of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is equivalent to 1,750,000 people – up a large 566,000 so far this year.

The record high of 35.6% of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress was reached in mid-2008 when official interest rates hit a 30 year high of 7.25% (March – September 2008).

The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is up 389,000 on a year ago

The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is up 389,000 on a year ago after the RBA raised interest rates four times over the last 12 months. As a result of these changes, interest rates were at 4.6% in September 2026, 1% higher than a year earlier in September 2025

The number of Australians considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, is now numbered at a record high 1,262,000 (23% of mortgage holders) significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.5%.

Mortgages ‘At Risk’ set to rise as the Reserve Bank increases interest rates again

The Reserve Bank (RBA) has raised interest rates four times so far this year. These increases were due to the official ABS annual inflation rate being above the RBA’s preferred target range of 2-3%. Official estimates of inflation were at 4% in the year to August 2026; well above the RBA’s preferred target range.

Because of this, Roy Morgan has modelled the impact of potential RBA interest rate increases at their meetings next week in early November (+0.25% to 4.85%) and in early December (+0.25% to 5.1%).

If the RBA increases interest rates by +0.25% to a 19-year high of 4.85% next week, the share of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ would increase to 33.1% (up 1.3% points from now), and equivalent to a new record high 1,821,000 mortgage holders, up 71,000 from now.

Looking forward into December, and another potential RBA interest rate increase of +0.25% to 5.1%, the share of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ would then increase to 34.3% (up 2.5% points from now), and equivalent to a new record high 1,887,000 mortgage holders, up 137,000 from now.

Estimates: RIP to the Household Expenditure Survey

Greg Jericho

The Bureau of Statistics has just been appearing in estimates and Greens Senator Barbara Pocock asks them about the complete lack of a Household Expenditure Survey (HES). The last one done was in 2015-16.

This is a pretty crucial survey. It is used to assist in the weighting of the CPI, and the cost of living indexes. It also provides data on spending by level of income, type of income, age etc etc.

Like I said – it is a crucial survey.

For example, recently the Grattan Institute proposed levying the GST on fresh food and other items. We can use the HES to show that doing so would be regressive because those on lower incomes spend more of their money on all those items

But if we did put a GST on private school fees, private health insurance and even uni fees, that would actually be progressive

But all of that is relying on data that is now 10 years old.

In its most recent corporate plan, the ABS announced it had no intention of doing a new HES.

The head statistician David Gruen told the committee that “We were doing preparation and then COVID turned up” and that since then it has dropped off because… well a lack of funding to do it.

Senator Pocock asked the Minister, Tim Ayres if he planned on raising the funding, and after some jokes that were not funny, he suggested “Every agency can do more with more resources”

So no.

GST and fuel – a reminder it goes to the states, not the Commonwealth

Tim Wilson, known here as Berries and Cream, is back trying to push the line that the federal government is making hay from the increased oil costs, through GST on petrol.

He has said, again, this time to Brisbane radio 4BC, that it was correct the government is raking in another $350m a month from the GST on petrol. But that is not the way GST works. It goes to the states and territories, particularly WA, because of the sweet, sweet deal they have locked the nation into.

Also – you know who is making bank from these oil prices? The oil companies. And that money just goes to shareholders.

Domestic gas reserve legislation passes the House

So now it off to the senate, where it will most likely be the Greens in the driving seat for the negotiations.

This is normal for end of year legislation – oppositions tend to dig in and oppose where they can for the plot.

Tail continues to wag the dog in the Coalition

Nationals Leader Matt Canavan, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Ted O’Brien, Manager of Opposition Business Dan Tehan and the Chair of the Australian Dairy Industry Council Ben Bennett on their way to a press conference in the Mural Hall of Parliament House, Canberra this afternoon. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October

The Nationals opposition to the EU Free Trade Deal, which they claim is because of climate commitments included in the deal (despite Australia having other free trade deals with climate commitments, and Australia is a signatory to the Paris Agreement) is ramping up, which might make some of the Liberals a bit more antsy.

The Nats and regional Libs say they have crunched the numbers and the $10bn benefit in the first year claim Don Farrell has made is based on 2020 figures, which are now out of date and large increases in overall meat and dairy exports.

Nationals Leader Matt Canavan, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Ted O’Brien, Manager of Opposition Business Dan Tehan and the Chair of the Australian Dairy Industry Council Ben Bennett during a press conference in the Mural Hall of Parliament House, Canberra this afternoon. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October

So now they have found a new reason to oppose it, other than climate. Which shows that maybe the climate line was biting more than was being made public.

Estimates: People unable to pay their home loan: Broadly stable but with a slight increase

Greg Jericho

We are now on to the Australian Prudential and Regulatory Authority (APRA) which is in charge of making sure the bank and other financial institution (insurance, superannuation) do the right thing and are not getting into trouble.

The National’s leader Matt Canavan was asking about the number of people with mortgages who are in arears – ie not able to keep up with their payments and whether it has risen. Clearly he is trying to suggests things are getting worse because of rate riser and wanting to blame the government

APRA argue that the level is broadly stable and the level of “non-performing loans” – ie loans that are not generating money (because the payments are not being made) is around 1%.

That is true, but also there has been a slight increase – obviously there is an increase in people struggling, but APRA also want to stress that the banking sector is not about to fall over because essentially 99% of their loans are still being repaid

Estimates: Fallout from the Firmus IPO – brokers on notice

Greg Jericho

Today in Senate Estimate the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) was asked by Liberal Senator David Sharma about the Firmus IPO (which famously fell over once reporting of it made it pretty clearly that it seemed a rather flimsy proposition)

The AFR reported a few weeks ago a letter from JPMorgan, who were working on the IPO float for Firmus (ie trying to generate buyers of the stock) saying “Demand has been enormous – north of $7.5 billion over $5 billion of available stock”

This rather seems to not be accurate of the actual investor demand. Brokers are not allowed to misrepresent things in such a way (ie lie)

Sharma wanted to know if ASIC was investigating the matter. ASIC Chair Sarah Court told the committee that “at this stage we are making enquiries” and that it is not a formal investigation.

But were I a broker at JPMorgan I would be gather my correspondence and be alerting the legal team.  

Supermarket forces

Morgan Harrington

Yesterday’s new inflation data has led to some discussion about grocery prices. Labor MP Ed Husic has said that, “having price interventions or price caps on those basic groceries are some of the things I seriously think need to be entertained.” Both Assistant Treasurer Daniel Mulino and Shadow Minister Andrew Hastie were asked about price caps on RN Breakfast this morning, and both hosed down the idea. Mulino pointed to an existing code of conduct for supermarkets and new laws against price gouging, while Hastie called the idea “very interventionist.”

But it was just a couple of years ago that then Liberal leader Peter Dutton (and Angus Taylor) floated an idea that would have forced the break-up of the big supermarkets (and hardware shops). The kind of ‘divestiture’ powers they had in mind already exist in the UK and the USA.

Back in the present, the Green Institute has called for publicly owned supermarkets – according to their polling, 84% of people would support the idea.

Australia Institute research has found that food retailing in Australia is not a competitive well-functioning market, that there is evidence that this market failure is hurting consumers and adding to inflation, and that low-income households in particular are being harmed by this lack of competition and resulting higher food prices.

Last year, an inquiry by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission found that “ALDI, Coles and Woolworths are some of the most profitable supermarket businesses among global peers and their average product margins have increased over the past five financial years.”

Rate rise the short-priced favourite on Cup Day              

Greg Jericho

It has been a long while since I have cared about the Melbourne Cup (too many dead horses made me realise it was not how I liked to have fun), but if you fancy a sure thing, bet on a rate rise next Tuesday.

Right now the future market is forecasting an 85% chance of a rate rise next week.

What probably makes it even more certain is it is clear the RBA wants to increase rates and let everyone know last week that it would likely do so.

The Deputy Governor, Andrew Hauser, told an audience at Citigroup that “the inflation outlook looks materially worse than we projected in the August report”

Not surprisingly the market reacted and shifted from thinking there would not be a cut because UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE TO A 5 YEAR HIGH OF 4.7% to realising the RBA does not worry about that

For those who do bet on the horse an 85% chance is like betting on a hoard that pays $1.18. – ie you bet $1 and to win 18 cents. To give some context in her last race Black Caviar was paying $1.14. SO yeah, the odds are pretty likely that the rates will go up.

And what then?

Well the CPI figures changed the outlook a bit as well.

The good news is it still seems most likely that there will be just one rate rise in the next 18 months. But then just note that when the unemployment figures came out showing UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE TO A 5 YEAR HIGH OF 4.7% the market wasn;t even sure there would be anymore rate rises.

So, things can change. Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose etc etc (actually best not to bet, tbh)

Union launches ‘Jobs for Tomorrow’ campaign

The Mining and Energy Union have just released this statement:

Latrobe Valley workers are calling on all Victorian political parties to commit to a $102 million plan to secure new jobs, industries and training opportunities before Yallourn Power Station closes in 2028.

The Mining and Energy Union’s (MEU) Victorian District today launched Jobs for Tomorrow, a campaign led by workers and families calling for investment in the region’s future before existing jobs disappear.

The campaign, which stars real local MEU members will run across radio and digital advertising, starting tomorrow.

Around 1,000 workers and their community face an uncertain future as Yallourn’s closure approaches. The MEU says the time to establish new industries and employment opportunities is now, not after workers have lost their jobs.

MEU Victorian District President Andy Smith said workers and their families deserved certainty about the region’s future.

“Latrobe Valley workers have powered Victoria for generations. Now it’s Victoria’s turn to back the workers, families and communities who keep the lights on,” Mr Smith said.

“Yallourn’s closure is getting closer, and workers are making decisions now about their futures as well as who to vote for. They need to know there will be good jobs in the Valley and a real pathway into them.

“We can’t wait until the gates close and then start asking what comes next. We need investment, training and new industries in place before these jobs disappear.”

The MEU’s Jobs for Tomorrow plan calls for a $102 million Victorian Government package, including:

  • Investment to attract and establish new industries in the Latrobe Valley.
  • Industrial land and infrastructure that is ready for new businesses and jobs.
  • Retraining and income support for mature-age workers, and study bursaries for workers and their partners.
  • At least 40 adult apprenticeships through the State Electricity Commission, recognising workers’ existing skills and experience.
  • Funded regional coordination and accountability to make sure commitments are delivered.

“Workers don’t want to be told to simply retrain and hope for the best. They need training connected to real jobs, and they need those jobs to be available in their community,” Mr Smith said.

“Families have built their lives in the Latrobe Valley. They deserve the opportunity to stay here, continue their careers and see a future for the next generation.”

The MEU is seeking commitments from all parties ahead of the Victorian election.

“This is about the future of our community, and it should be a priority for every party seeking to govern Victoria,” Mr Smith said.

“Workers and families have done their part for this state. It’s time for Victoria to invest in jobs for tomorrow.”

The campaign website can be viewed here: https://jobsfortomorrow.com.au/

Business blames government for inflation but it is business that fixes the prices behind inflation.

David Richardson

Today’s Financial Review talks about the inflation data (inflation “spikes” to 4.3%) and says the figures pushed business groups to warn that “alarm bells” for the economy were “well and truly ringing”.

The report continued on this theme mentioning that Business Council of Australia (BCA) chief executive Bran Black said the inflation figures were an “alarm bell” for the economy.

He is reported as saying “I am deeply worried about the economic impact on businesses and millions of Australians.…Inflation is running hotter in Australia than in many other parts of the world, including the US, UK and New Zealand…It is also abundantly clear that we have a home-grown inflation problem to fix, with 3 percentage points of the headline figure driven by home-grown inflation, according to ABS data. The government must take action.”

This is real cute. The BCA’s members include some of the main corporate price setters if not price gougers. BCA’s membership includes AGL and other energy companies, the big banks, Ampol, Apple, BP, Coles, CSL, Dulux, Goodman, Medibank, Microsoft, Optus, Qantas, Shell, Telstra, Transurban, Woodside and Woolworths. These are among some of the most recognisable names of companies with a good deal of market power over the prices facing Australia’s consumers.

Companies like these are precisely the ones that determine the prices we pay and that directly impacts inflation. Mr Black may well say that government must take action. But it is action against big business that is increasingly necessary.

Rather than blaming government, Mr Black and his membership should be hanging their heads in shame.

Meanwhile the Reserve Bank has signalled we are likely up for more interest rate increases and that it doesn’t care about unemployment consequences. In doing that the Reserve Bank will be fighting the wrong battle.

Traditional Owners reclaim access to rainforest Country

Keira Jenkins for AAP

Connection to Country is one of the most important things to Jirrbal Elder Uncle Kurt Noble. 

So stepping onto the 20,000 hectares of forest known as Wooroora for the first time was a moment he had been looking forward to. 

For generations, Jirrbal people have not been able to meaningfully access this land in far north Queensland, but Mr Noble said cultural and historical knowledge of the area has remained in the memories of Elders. 

“Much of our land is under private ownership,” Mr Noble said.

“To have access, to be able to come back and forth has been very restricted over many years, over generations.”

The rainforest, wet sclerophyll forest and savanna woodland landscape of Wooroora is home to at least 12 threatened species, and more than 30 of conservation significance, including the southern cassowary, northern greater glider, red goshawk and magnificent broodfrog.

Conservation organisation Bush Heritage Australia is working with Jirrbal Traditional Owners to purchase the property, hoping to protect its ecosystem, wildlife and cultural heritage.

It will cost the not-for-profit $24.7 million to purchase and begin work alongside Jirrbal people, with the final $5.3 million needed before December 24. 

The plan is to remove the fence line with the neighbouring Yourka Reserve, which is also managed by Bush Heritage Australia, creating a protected corridor of more than 400,000 hectares, with Koombooloomba and Tully Falls national parks. 

This would be a spectacular outcome for the land, and Traditional Owners, according to Bush Heritage Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander partnerships manager Ross Mitchell. 

“It’s a beautiful place, an important place that’s been there for generations and to reconnect back to their ancestors, where they’ve walked, their songlines, their storylines … it’s a really deep feeling,” he told AAP. 

It’s hard to imagine all the possibilities that will open up once the property is purchased, Wabubadda Aboriginal Corporation chairperson and Jirrbal man Liam Roberts said.

Aspirations include the Jirrbal ranger team working with Elders and community to safeguard areas of cultural significance. 

But Mr Roberts said he’d like to see access to Wooroora extending beyond the rangers, hoping it might be a place where community conversations can be had, and history can be shared.

“The opportunity to come out here and to have camps is the opportunity to share stories you haven’t heard told to you by the Elders and the older generation,” he said. 

For Mr Noble, being able to access Wooroora means better wellbeing for his people. 

“Being able to be on Country and have access to Country strengthens all of us, it just makes our lives better, stronger, healthier,” he said.

“Instead of talking about our Country over there somewhere, a long way away, now we can be right there in the middle of it.”

Estimates: expressions

You can always tell how a hearing is going for a public servant by the expressions as they are asked questions. Here are a couple Mike Bowers has caught today.

The Chair of ASIC Sarah Court before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee in Parliament House, Canberra this morning. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October

Secretary of the Department of Defence Meghan Quinn before the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Legislation Committee in Parliament House, Canberra this morning. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October
The Chair of ASIC Sarah Court before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee in Parliament House, Canberra this morning. Photograph by Mike Bowers. Thursday 29th October

US Fed keeps rates unchanged despite elevated inflation

AAP

The Federal Reserve has kept its key rate unchanged at about 3.9 per cent despite elevated inflation while providing little hint about the US central bank’s next moves.

“Inflation remains elevated,” the Fed said in a statement released after its two-day policy meeting.

Holding off on an increase will allow “the accumulation of more information” that will help determine what policy the Fed should pursue “to ensure a timely return of inflation” to the central bank’s 2.0 per cent inflation target, the statement said.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh expressed confidence US inflation can be lowered to the two per cent target without having ‌to “throw sand in the gears” and slow growth or raise unemployment.

Warsh, speaking at a press conference, said he expects a report on third-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday to show strong investment and consumer spending and an acceleration of growth from the first half of the year.

Warsh, however, said he still does not think the US economy is “too hot” or generating demand-side inflation that needs to be curbed.

“The economy is pointing in the right direction. Is the economy running too hot? Is the economy running too strong? That isn’t the judgment of most of my colleagues,” said Warsh, arguing, as he has before, that changes in productivity, even predating the artificial intelligence boom, may allow the US to grow faster without as much inflation.

“The ‌goal, in my view … isn’t ‌to throw sand in the gears of ⁠the economy and throw people out of work. I don’t think we have to do that.”

Rather, Warsh said, a higher Fed policy rate is already showing its ​impact in slightly tighter credit conditions that could, for example, slow business investment and which arguably contributed to recent stock market declines, another potential source of “disinflation” if it slows spending among wealthier families.

Last month the Fed raised its benchmark rate for the first time in three years, defying US President Donald Trump’s demands for rate cuts, in an effort to get inflation back to its 2.0 per cent target in a “timelier” manner.

In comments to CNBC on Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration continues to have faith that Warsh will “find the right balance” between the two per cent inflation goal and continuing economic growth.

Two Fed officials dissented from Wednesday’s decision, with Fed governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack voting in favour of hiking rates by a quarter point.

with Reuters

Treasury bill almost through the house

The government is pushing its start up and CGT bill through the house, which the crossbench is trying to amend – but not successfully.

There are concerns from the crossbench over what the bill will mean for research and development, given some of the timeframes for access contained in the bill, while there are other concerns over what the CGT changes will mean for investment.

But this is an issue for the senate, because the house is voting on it as it is.

Late-day speeches (again) making the case for a 25 per cent gas export tax

Louise Morris

Late on Wednesday afternoon, well after the live blogs had clocked off, a handful of MPs rose in the Federation Chamber to speak on the Domestic Gas Reservation Bill. The debate wrapped up at 7.30pm. No press gallery rush. No breaking news banner.

That is a shame, because the speeches were about why we need a 25 per cent tax on gas exports.

Minister Madeleine King’s pitch was about structure, balance, and trusted trading partners. She spoke of an “enduring, transparent and predictable framework”. She did not mention revenue.

Independent MP Sophie Scamps did. A reservation scheme, she said, “does not raise a single dollar” for the public. A 25 per cent export tax would raise around $17 billion a year, and polling shows 72 per cent of Australians back it. She noted the petroleum resource rent tax raised just $1.4 billion last year, while more than $55 billion worth of gas was exported.

Independent MP Andrew Gee put a price on waiting. By his estimate, a 25 per cent tax since 2022 would have raised about $79 billion. He called it a choice between “national interest” and “vested interests” and said delay costs about $2 million an hour.

Then came Labor MP Ed Husic, who was “stoked” about the reservation scheme but went straight to the missing piece. The ACTU’s proposal of a 25 per cent tax on gas exports, he said, is “estimated to generate $17 billion a year”. At a time when finding new revenue “is pretty hard going”, he said, “we have to have a serious talk about our options”. A gas tax, he said, “absolutely has to come next”.

He argued that Australia is a resource-rich country, but everyday Australians “aren’t seeing the returns of that prosperity”. Instead, they read about Santos not paying company tax for 11 years. The same company that says a gas export tax is a bad idea, he said, thinks that is a good idea. “I think the hypocrisy of that is just wrong.”

Australians, by contrast, see the tax taken out of every pay slip. Then they read about big multinationals “crying out poor”. The outrage, he said, “is absolutely justified”.

It is not a partisan issue, either. Labor, Liberal, National, One Nation and Greens supporters all “reckon we should be getting a better deal on gas”.

Husic also asked the question that matters most. With gas income set to decline, “what are the jobs that come next?” A tax, he said, lets us invest the money for long-term growth, as Scandinavian countries have done. A gas tax is “a missed opportunity, not a lost one”, he said, and “the fight isn’t over”.

A tax also does the reservation scheme’s job. It gives exporters a reason to sell at home, which puts downward pressure on domestic prices. Scamps reminded the chamber that those prices have tripled since east coast LNG exports began.

The government has support from Labor’s own ranks, the crossbench, and the public. It can pass this bill and then do what Husic says must come next. Or it can keep reading talking points while the revenue walks out the door.

A reminder – Australia opposes the death penalty in all circumstances for all people.

Mark Dreyfus, who made this one of his passion projects as attorney-general and has always been very consistent on this issue, has made a statement to the house on Australia continuing to work to abolish the death penalty – everywhere. Including ‘our allies’ which is diplomatic speak for AMERICA, where Donald Trump recently floated the idea of live streaming a firing squad execution.

Australia opposes the death penalty in all circumstances for all people. This is not the position of one government or one party. It is a long-standing bipartisan commitment, grounded in our belief in the inherent rights and dignity of every person.

When serious crimes occur, the grief and anger are real, and the desire for justice is entirely human, but when we look at how the death penalty is used around the world, it becomes clear that it does not deliver justice. It is an affront to it. First, the evidence shows the death penalty is too often applied unfairly to people facing economic or educational disadvantage, people living with intellectual, cognitive, and psychosocial disability, foreign nationals, women, and ethnic minorities.

Second, when mistakes are made, and they are, there is no undoing them. There is no second chance.

Third, the death penalty offers no prospect of rehabilitation. Fourth, the death penalty does not make communities safer. There is no evidence that it deters crime more effectively than other serious penalties.

And finally, in some countries, people can still be put to death for who they love, for what they believe, or as a form of political persecution, that is not justice.

Australia works for global abolition through every channel available, multilaterally, regionally, and bilaterally.

We use international forums, particularly the UN, to call for universal abolition, we raise our position directly with retentionist countries, including our close partners. These conversations are often private, but they matter.

And we do this work alongside civil society, whose efforts are vital.

Australia’s own journey is one we can be proud of. Our last execution of Ronald Ryan took place in 1967.

The 60th anniversary of this event is coming up next year.

The death penalty was abolished across every Australian jurisdiction in 1985, and in 2010 Parliament legislated to ensure it can never return.

In 2018, we launched our first strategy for the global abolition of the death penalty under then Foreign Minister Bishop.

In 2022, we co-led the UN General Assembly resolution on the death penalty, and a record number of nations voted in favor.

Last year, the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister asked me, as Special Envoy for International Human Rights, to take on a special advocacy role for universal abolition. And today, I’m proud to announce another milestone: the launch of Australia’s refreshed strategy for abolition of the death penalty.

Under this refreshed strategy, Australia will broaden and strengthen our abolition efforts. This will include deepening our engagement with civil society, countering the disproportionate and discriminatory application of the death penalty on certain individuals, combating efforts to subvert international human rights obligations, and ensuring abolition is a whole-of-government effort.

The refresh strategy is closely informed by the recommendations of the Human Rights Subcommittee of the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade, which the government welcomed earlier this year.

This occasion is an opportunity to reflect on global progress.

146 countries have now abolished the death penalty in law or in practice.

Lebanon abolished it this year, becoming the first country in the Middle East to do so. I was honored to personally congratulate Lebanon’s ambassador to Australia a few weeks ago.

Vietnam has reduced the number of offenses carrying the death penalty, and Zimbabwe has abolished it for ordinary crimes. In 2023, Malaysia abolished the mandatory death penalty, and Pakistan repealed it for drug-related offenses.

But in these times, when so many hard-won gains are being tested, we must guard against backsliding. Progress is not inevitable.

Amnesty International reports that executions worldwide in 2025 were the highest since 1981, a 78% increase on 2024. Drug-related offenses accounted for at least 46% of them, and our home, the Asia Pacific, remains the region with the most executions.

Given this, Australia’s leadership remains crucial. Today, I remember those who have been put to death, including Australians.

I also think of those who remain on death row worldwide, and I recognize the tireless advocates, lawyers, parliamentarians, and civil society organizations who refuse to look away.

Abolition has been achieved by countries in every region of the world across different cultures, traditions, religions, and legal systems. It is not the project of one group of states. It is a global movement rooted in the protection of human rights. And so, I repeat, Australia opposes the death penalty in all circumstances for all people.

And under our refresh strategy, we will continue working until universal abolition is achieved, I ask Leave of the House to present a copy of Australia’s strategy for global abolition of the death penalty 2026.

Is a ‘blue wave’ coming at the US midterms?

Angus Blackman

The Trump administration and US democracy itself face a big test at the midterm elections.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Dr Emma Shortis joins Ebony Bennett to discuss US politics ahead of the midterms and the state of democracy globally.

Australian artists form alliance

More than 150 artists have come together to launch the Artists Alliance of Australia (AAA), which is the first national representative body for recording artists in the country’s history.

The AAA (not to be confused with the Automotive Alliance) has been founded by Kristy Lee Peters (KLP) and Holly Rankin (Jack River), with the support of artists including Bernard Fanning, Kate Ceberano, Tina Arena, Thelma Plum, Spiderbait, G Flip, John Butler, Matt Corby, Montaigne, Katie Noonan, Ben Lee, What So Not, Lime Cordiale, Peking Duk, Troy Cassar-Daley, Sneaky Sound System and Nina Las Vegas.

It aims to use collective power to raise issues, particularly around the rise of technology stealing their work, in the public and political spaces.

The Artists Alliance of Australia will be led in the interim by a steering committee of Alex Lahey, DOBBY, Heidi Lenffer, Isabella Manfredi, Josh Pyke, Kira Puru, Paul Dempsey, Sophie Payten (Gordi), Sukhdeep Singh (L-FRESH The LION), Zindzi Okenyo and Thomas Honeywell, alongside Rankin and Peters.

Artist-led bodies of this kind already exist internationally, including the Featured Artists Coalition in the United Kingdom and the Music Artists Coalition in the United States, but until today no body like this has ever existed in Australia.

From AI and copyright to artist rights and government policy, decisions are being made every day that affect the careers of Australian artists. The Alliance will commence immediate advocacy on the most critical issue facing artists today: the protection of copyright in Australia.

Kristy-Lee Peters:

Artists deserve a seat at the table when decisions are being made about our careers and our futures. AAA is about bringing us together, giving us a collective voice and making sure we’re part of those conversations.

Holly Rankin:

Australian recording artists are facing an existential threat. The Government’s proposal to upend copyright law is the most pressing issue in our history as artists and for Australian culture.

Before now, artists’ alliances like AAA have only existed at scale in other countries, like the UK and the US. We have changed that today. We are coming together to make our voices heard, to lead the conversation with the Australian public and to make sure no decision about our work is made without us in the room.

Bernard Fanning:

Artists contribute a great deal to this country. This is an exciting day for the future of our culture and for generations of artists to come.

You can find out more, here: https://www.artistsaa.com/

You’ll be SHOCKED to learn Peter Costello thinks he could do it all better

The IPA has interviewed former treasurer Peter Costello (and founder of the HR Nicholls Society) has been interviewed by the IPA’s chief economist, Adam Creighton for the IPA’s new podcast.

You will be shocked, SHOCKED I tell you to learn that in “an exclusive and wide-ranging interview with the IPA, Australia’s longest-serving Treasurer Peter Costello has declared the nation’s economic problems are “nearly all self-inflicted”, blaming excessive regulation, taxation and wasteful government spending for Australia’s loss of competitiveness”.

Well smash me down and call me avocado! You can find that riveting interview where you get your podcasts.

The RBA has primed the market for an interest rate rise.

Greg Jericho

My column on Guardian Australia today looks unsurprisingly at inflation.

“It also examines the answer yesterday at Senate Estimates by thee head of the RBA

Greens senator Nick McKim asked Michele Bullock whether she was “worried … about the pace of the increase in unemployment, specifically what rise in unemployment would give the RBA cause for a reasonable concern that we would head into recession?”.

He asked this due to unemployment rising from 4.1% in January to 4.7% in September. Claudia Sahm, a US economist, argues a 0.5% rise in the three-month average of unemployment over a year is the point at which an economy enters recession conditions.

Right now, Australia’s three-month average unemployment rate has risen 0.45% in the past year, and if the October rate remains at 4.7%, it will break through the 0.5% mark:

Bullock replied: “We’re not worried about the pace of increase in the unemployment rate at this stage. We do forecast that it has to gradually move up … I can’t be specific about what that number is. What I can say is we think that it’s probably above where the unemployment rate is at the moment.”

Read more and find all the graphs explaining the CPI figures over here

Calling it out

Deputy Greens leader Steph Hodgins-May has released a social media video of her calling one of the men who has left abusive messages on her social platforms.

Another day of being a woman in politics.

A man called me a “stupid bitch”. So I called him.

Spoiler alert: he stood by it. Said he’d do it again, apparently even to his wife and kids.

This behaviour is far too common. And every time it’s excused, it emboldens others to disrespect, intimidate and abuse women.

Just because it’s normalised doesn’t mean we should accept it.

You can find that here.

Women still the ones expected to give up paid work to care for the kids

Greg Jericho

The Bureau of Statistics not only released the latest inflation figures, but also the latest numbers on reasons people were not working or looking for work.

Two of the biggest reasons are that they are retired so, working ain’t on the agenda, and the other is that they are studying (even though more people studying work now than in the past).

Once you exclude those reason – which are not really reasons that the government or even economists really would like to change (ok there are some who think you should work till you die and should be down the mines even when at school) – the big two reasons are “dunno” and “something”, or officially “Other reasons” and “not determined”

Seriously people – just answer the damn survey!

But once we get past those two “reasons” we see big differences.

For women the biggest reason not looking for paid work (as opposed to the actual work they are doing, work that keeps the economy going but is unpaid) is child care. 20% of women state that reason.

By contrast just 5% of men do.

For men the biggest reason is a lack of suitable work around.

Still holding onto that grudge.

Asked about whether or not independent senator Fatima Payman will receive any extra staff – and whether it is fair that the prime minister gets to decide how many staff non-government MPs receive, Anthony Albanese holds onto that grudge.

Payman has been very open and vocal about the impact on her and her staff, as an independent senator, in not having enough staff to do her job. Albanese says Payman has the same amount of staff she would have had as a Labor senator – which is pretty disingenuous because as a Labor senator, she would have had Labor help in general – the major parties have people who tell them what is happening, where it is happening, and all of that other admin that independents don’t get.

Leaving the Labor party was seen as a betrayal and Albanese is not one to forget these things. So, her view that this is a petty response to her leaving the party (which she did after Labor refused to acknowledge the Palestinian genocide) is not, not wrong.

Albanese:

Fatima Payman has the same numbers of staff now as she had when she was elected as a Labor senator. Indeed, one more, because we granted an additional staffer to all senators and all members of the House of Representatives

‘Nativist politics is not in Australia’s national interest.’

Q: Under a free trade agreement, you say that you are astonished at the opposition that’s being put forward here. The coalition’s criticism seems to be that a it’s a bad deal, and b that it somehow legitimises the existence of climate change, which the Nationals don’t seem to like. Could you address those criticisms? And do you think what’s your read on whether this issue is divisive within the Coalition, given the Liberals’ historic support for free trade?

Anthony Albanese:

Well, I note Alex Hawke’s comments in a Liberal Party meeting, where he questioned why it is that Matt Canavan is making determinations without any process in their party room or their shadow cabinet. It’s very clear that for people who say they belong to a political party that supports markets and supports free and fair trade, that will be completely undermined and shredded unless they support this legislation. When it comes to is it a fair deal? It is a fair deal.

When we had discussions, firstly with the European Union, we determined that it wasn’t good enough. After that, we went back to them and we got a better deal, and that is what this does.

For example, the sheep meat and beef meat exports, which have been subject of some criticism, respectively, will lead to four and eight times the amount of exports going into Europe, as currently occur, that’s a pretty big increase with a five-year review of that and the potential to increase it even further.

This is a good deal. It’s a good deal over things such as naming as well. Those issues that were dealt with, you know, whether you could name feta that was produced here, for example. It’s also a good deal for Australian consumers because cheaper imports put downward pressure on prices.

Trade is a good thing. I thought this was resolved in the 1980s under the Hawke and Keating governments, and that since then there was support across this Parliament and across the mainstream political parties. The parties of government agreed that trade was a good thing at a time where it is under challenge, where the U.S. government have implemented tariffs that have, that have increased inflation in the United States

That have been the subject, as we’ve been very clear about standing up for Australia’s national interests.

You know, when we gather with President Xi and President Trump at APEC in a month’s time, Australia wants to be the country that we’re for free and fair trade unequivocally. And when it comes to climate provisions, there’s nothing special about this. There’s a reference to the Paris Agreement, Paris Agreement that was signed up to by Tony Abbott, that was supported by the Coalition.

There are climate references in the UK FTA, in the US FTA, in the China FTA, as well.

So this is just an excuse for going down the road of protectionist and nativist politics.

Nativist politics is not in Australia’s national interest. We are a trading nation. We are an island continent in which economic growth and productivity is boosted by engaging with the world.

It is a full court press

The Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with Minister for Climate Change Chris Bowen, Minister for Industry Tim Ayres and Minister for Resources Madeline King at a press conference in the PM’s courtyard of Parliament House, Canberra this morning. Photograph by Mike Bowers.

Half the cabinet seems to be at this press conference, so this is what we call an attempt to ‘re-take the narrative’.

So we have resources minister Madeleine King talking about the gas reserve policy (honestly, just do the gas tax already), industry minister Tim Ayres talking gas reserve policy and Chris Bowen talking gas reserve policy.

The gas reserve legislation will pass the parliament today, but then it is off to the senate where it’s up to the negotiations.

Bowen:

When the gas reservation bill passes the House of Representatives today, it’ll be a good day for Australia. About 20 years overdue, it will be a day in which Australian gas under Australian soil and Australian water is reserved for Australian use. This is fundamental reform, which will put Australian industry on a better competitive foot, and will ensure that the gas which belongs to all Australians is used by Australians first and foremost. Australia is the last country with a gas industry in the world without an effective reservation policy. That’ll be fixed under the Albanese government. It’ll pass the House of Representatives today. We call on all parties to pass it through the Senate because it’s what Australia needs.

Well if that is the measure, Australia should also be seriously considering properly taxing its resources then too, huh?

On the EU free trade deal

He then moves on to the European Free Trade deal – the Coalition are against it because of the climate clause, which they don’t agree with, and want Australia excluded from having to meet the EU’s standards.

Which is…backwards to say the least. That’s not a comment on whether or not the trade deal is good, but it is showing how Australia is already an outlier on how most of the rest of the world deals with climate – it is not a left/right issue for most nations, but an economic and rational one.

This needs to be passed, and I find it astonishing that at a time where free and fair trade is under threat around the world, where that’s a big debate in global politics and in the global economy, that this somehow is being questioned here in Australia. This is very much in our national interest to engage internationally, and that’s one of the reasons why I’m going to CHOGM (Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting) next week at the invitation of His Majesty King Charles.

Anthony Albanese press conference

The Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at a press conference in the PM’s courtyard of Parliament House, Canberra this morning. Thursday 29th October Photograph by Mike Bowers.

The prime minister is holding a press conference, opening with the digital duty of care bill and urging its passage through the senate.

It is ital that this get the support of the Senate. It does two things essentially. The first is it makes big tech accountable, just as the media organisations represented here are accountable for what’s on their platforms. They should be held to account for the role that they play and what appears in their platforms, and which therefore then gets circulated right around Australia.

Second thing that it does, which is related, which is rather than international base. companies are determining through algorithms what Australians receive, it empowers people themselves to determine what you receive on your devices, so that you should have that control. This isn’t about government having a greater role; it’s about people having a greater role, having more control themselves, and it’s deserving of support of this parliament. Following the ban which we put in place for under-16s on social media accounts, this is again Australia leading the world, and the truth is that these new technologies are having a major impact on our economy, on the way that we work, but more importantly, just on society. And it’s important that society, through Parliament, have a legitimate role in debate in what impact do we want this to have on the way that society functions, and that’s what this legislation is about.

And on future plans…

Q: You’re wanting to walk back government spending, but with the experience we’ve had with the Middle East and trade disruption, would a coalition government need to be forking out money to invest and prop up some of the industries which may be under threat from global disruption?

Hastie:

Well, the government’s already doing that. We’re seeing bailouts across the board, whether it’s Tomago or Waiala, well, I believe in sovereign capability, and I believe the government should have a role where market can’t deliver the outcomes that we need, which is why we invest in in critical capabilities like smelting, for example.

But what we have to do is get spending under control, and that’s why this week we identified 31 billion dollars worth of savings, which will pay for our tax cuts*.

In the first year, average Australian will get 500 bucks. Second year, 750. Third year, about $1,000. Over 10 years, 14 $1,000 back. They’ll be better off. So, but we’ll also have about 22 billion dollars left over from that as well. So, we are identifying where the saves are. We’re going to dismantle Labor’s climate bureaucracy.

We’re going to bring in more revenue by fixing the illicit tobacco trade in this country.** There’s a range of areas that we’re going to focus on.

*That’s in things like climate, housing and welfare by the way – all things which will end up costing you more money and that’s even before the RBA decides the tax cuts are inflationary and raises interest rates to balance out the scales.

**That is not going to raise anywhere near the money they are claiming, based on how these markets work.

Hastie responds.

Andrew Hastie has been put forward by the Coalition, so let’s see what he has to say – Hastie is keen to expand his appearances beyond being the only Coalition MP to openly call out One Nation and is doing more and more policy responses.

Q: How concerned are you about the prospect of another interest rate rise next week?

Hastie:

I think Australians should be very concerned. We are looking down the barrel of a 17th interest rate rise under this government.Bond yields are above 5%, the 10-year bond yield, and the spending is out of control. We’ve hit a trillion dollars of debt*, and there’s no sign that this government is going to kick its spending habit. And the Australian people are the ones who pay with higher prices across the board, but also in mortgage repayments, it’s costing an extra $30,000 for the average family with a mortgage these these days to to pay it down per year.

*More than half of that debt was left by the Coalition. Also, it doesn’t matter – Australia has a comparatively low debt to GDP ratio (one of the lowest in the OECD) and has maintained AAA credit ratings, so the cost of servicing it hasn’t increased, but if we are going to talk about these numbers they need to be in context.

Q: Labor MP Ed Husic yesterday suggested the government should consider price caps on basic grocery items to help Australians with cost of living. Is that doable?

Hastie:

Look, that’s very interventionist**. I think the the best thing that we can do is cut spending in in from the government. We ask families and businesses across the country to manage their own finances. It’s now time for the government to manage its finances, and if we do that, we can get inflation under control. We can balance the books, and return this country to prosperity because our living standards are dropping. Inflation is a silent tax that is eating away at people’s wealth. We have bracket creep. That’s why we’re introducing our tax plan, which gives people more of their money back, defeating Albanese’s bracket creep***.

**The Nationals wanted to break up the supermarket monopoly not that long ago. The Coalition also wanted to break up energy companies (remember the ‘big stick’) so you know, potatoes, pahtadoes

***It’s not Albanese’s bracket creep and also, the RBA would see it as inflationary in this environment, and also even John Howard had to scrap this plan in the Fraser government because of how much money it would cost, even then.

Q: Energy Minister Chris Bowen said in question time yesterday that he government is talking to industry about how to ensure Australian taxpayers can share and increase profits made by Australian oil refineries during periods of high fuel prices. Is this an idea that the coalition supports?

Hastie:

Well, we have our own plan through the Future Generation Fund, where we’ll set aside 80% of all windfall profits from oil and gas sector* and put it into a fund and use it to pay down the debt, but also on nation-building projects. We need more roads, we need more ports, we need more power plants, we need a whole range of things that will support the economy and, particularly in the power space, deliver cheaper energy for Australian families.

****This only works if those windfall profits happen in Australia, which, looking at history, they somehow never do.

Q: Let’s talk about the credit card ban on paying tax. Commissioner of Taxation Rob Heffernan was in front of estimates yesterday. Said the ATO could have consulted small businesses in a more extensive way before announcing this ban. What do you make of that?

Hastie:

Yeah, I think that’s admission that the government didn’t do its due diligence and that small business once again is paying. Small business is really doing it tough. We’ve had record insolvencies over the last four years*****, and they depend upon credit cards for for cash flow. So the ATO should have done a better job, but ultimately the ATO is responsible to the government of the day, and that’s the Albanese government.

*****Also record numbers of businesses starting.

Time for ‘drastic measures’?

Q: Labor MP Josh Burns says the government needs to do everything it can to bring down inflation. Is there a sense amongst your caucus colleagues that blaming the Middle East conflict is not enough, and the government needs to get on with some drastic measures to get the economy back on track?

Daniel Mulino:

So we’re not blaming foreign situations and leaving it at that. I think it’s important context to acknowledge that there are inflationary impulses coming internationally. But as I pointed to, we need to continue to strengthen our fiscal position. We’ve done that across a number of budgets, and we’ll continue to. And we need to continue with productivity reforms. So it is taking actions on those two fronts that is important when it comes to dealing with inflation.

The other advantage to having the assistant minister out there talking and not the treasurer, is there is enough of a gap between responsibilities where the assistant minister can say the lines, but not actually have to answer beyond them because well, they are only the assistant minister, not the decision maker.

Just something to keep in mind.

So of course we are now talking about making more people unemployed.

Q: So do interest rates need to go up to the extent that unemployment rises to cool the economy a bit further?

Daniel Mulino:

Well, so what we’re doing as a government is to continue to find savings. We’ve found something in the order of 180 billion in savings over the last four budgets. Two surpluses plus in the last budget, really, really significant savings, over 60 billion in savings and reprioritizations. So that that’s really important. We’re also leaning in when it comes to the productivity challenge. That is also key here. We need to lift the speed rate of the economy.

Q: We haven’t seen a significant jump in productivity, have we?

Mulino:

No. And so when you look at productivity, we’ve got a number of major initiatives we’ve already delivered, including passing the EPBC Act, including freezing the National Construction code, a bunch of measures in my portfolio, but also, as identified in the budget, something in the order of $13 billion a year added to economic growth through a range of national markets and we’re not seeing the positive measures shift in a favorable direction. Generally, productivity improvements do take a bit of a lag to come through, and we saw this, for example, in the Hawke Keating years. For example, you pass the EPBC Act, it takes a bit of time to implement, and then the improved decision making does take time to flow through.

Q: But the Treasury analysis in the budget points to improved economic outcomes. Should Australians brace for another interest rate hike next week? Do you think it’s likely?

Mulino:

So I’m not going to try and second guess what the RBA is going to do in future meetings, but what I can look look to is the fact that the the inflation result that we saw last in the last few days is primarily a result of international factors that the government will continue to undertake responsible fiscal management while at the same time having targeted cost of living support. We’ve managed to balance those two objectives over the last four budgets and eight economic statements in total.

Q: When we’re looking at some of the factors that are at play at the moment, you can’t control the war in the Middle East, but you can control spending. Why not pull harder if you can pull back spending?

Mulino:

Well, so I think what’s been achieved has been very significant, and as I touched on, if you look at the last four years, there’s been an accumulated saving of 180 billion dollars. The fiscal position is significantly better than the trajectory that we inherited. Debt is around 198 billion dollars less, which means around 70 billion less in interest payments over the medium term, over the coming decade, so the accumulated impact of what we’ve been doing, budget after budget, has been significant. The last budget, in particular, had very significant savings. They weren’t easy decisions; they were necessary. And in fact, what we find in the current political discourse is that we have an opposition who points to the need for more savings. But then, when savings actually come into the parliament, they opportunistically and cynically oppose them.

Well that last point depends on the group and how much power they hold in society doesn’t it. Because the NDIS cuts went through, but changes to veterans health caps and private health subsidies for over 65s have had huge amount of political pushback. And that isn’t a bad thing, but it does tell you who has power and who doesn’t. The NDIS cuts were framed by almost everyone in the political and media classes as ‘rational’ but the other debates have been driven by emotion.

Don’t overlook unemployment when talking inflation

Daniel Mulino is growing his profile – he has been out and about a lot for an assistant minister in the last couple of months, and is seen by the Labor party as one of the anointed ones for future leadership.

So it’s not surprising to hear him on ABC radio RN Breakfast again this morning, talking inflation. It’s also part of a strategy to spread things out a little so Jim Chalmers isn’t solely blamed as the consistent face of inflation (even as treasurer, he would be, because most people don’t know who politicians are because they have lives).

Q: Why is the government unable to get inflation down?

Mulino:

So, what we saw in the figures released earlier this week is that the conflict in Iran is lasting longer and is more severe than had been forecast, and that means that global energy prices are higher than had been expected a few months ago. We’re seeing higher inflation than expected right across the advanced economy world, so Australia is not immune from that.

You look at automotive fuel prices having gone up over 9% in the last quarter and over 23% over the last year, so that’s the primary driver. If you go back to the RBA’s most recent monetary policy statement, they talked about energy prices and also some technology prices being higher than expected because of the AI rollout again globally.

So there are some global factors at play here, which obviously Australia has to navigate. The government’s going to continue its very responsible fiscal management as we have over the last four budgets, and that will play an important role in putting downward pressure.

Q: When we’re looking at other OECD nations and comparable nations, they’re dealing with some of those global factors as well, but they’re having more success for bringing inflation down. Why are we not with them?

Mulino:

There’s a range of outcomes across the advanced economy world. I think if you look at other countries, it’s important to compare holistically. A lot of other economies have not been anywhere near as successful as Australia in terms of their labor market outcomes. We’ve managed to navigate this global economic inflationary impulse with very strong employment growth, around 1.3 million jobs created during the course of the government. We have unemployment higher than we would like, but it’s it’s low in comparison to a lot of other economies.

That last point is important and overlooked a lot in this discussion. Australia does not have the unemployment rates of a lot of these nations (which seems to annoy the RBA) and keeping people employed in this sort of situation is not usually a central bank’s focus – but it certainly is a human one.

Spanish high-speed train crash kills at least 68

URDA (Via AAP)

A high-speed train has slammed into the rear of another train that had stopped, derailing two cars and killing at least 68 people in central Spain, authorities say.

Rescue workers were scouring wreckage for more bodies at the crash scene on Wednesday in the province of Toledo.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said “all of Spain” was in mourning after the crash, which Transport Minister Oscar Puente said happened after ‌a Renfe service was authorised to proceed despite an active red signal due to a stationary train ahead.

Puente told reporters in Madrid that the red signal was issued due to a computer communications failure, which automatically stopped traffic, but an erroneous decision was then ‌taken to restart the Renfe train.

At the scene in rural Castilla-La Mancha, ambulances, funeral home vans and helicopters assembled beside one of the trains on an elevated ‌stretch of track while twisted ‌metal and wreckage lay scattered down an ⁠embankment where at least three carriages had plunged.

The head of the regional government Emiliano García-Page said the death toll had risen to 68 while rescuers searching for other ​victims as darkness fell did not know if other fatalities would be discovered once the carriages were moved.

Passengers removed from the train streamed along a road near the scene, some splattered with blood or with their wounds bandaged, others wheeling suitcases and being given water by volunteers who said it had been donated from neighbouring towns.

Miguel, a passenger travelling with several colleagues in the rear car of one of the trains, described to COPE radio the moment of the accident.

“We heard ⁠a massive roar, a truly enormous thud that went ‌on for ​10 seconds, as if the train were about to derail. Through the right-hand window, we could see ​a wrecked train,” ‌he said.

The disaster, the deadliest train accident in Europe since a 2013 derailment in Spain’s Santiago de Compostela in which 80 people died, follows another fatal accident in January involving high-speed trains operated by the same companies on the same line, in which 46 ⁠people died.

Renfe said on ‌Wednesday that after being authorised ​to continue its journey, its train had crashed into the Iryo train that had remained stationary “for reasons we don’t know”.

“The Renfe train continued on its way as instructed, and a collision occurred. The exact sequence of events, the traffic conditions and the circumstances ​of the impact ‌will have to be established by the investigation,” Renfe said in a statement.

Iryo, which said it had activated emergency protocols, and state-owned infrastructure operator Adif did not respond to requests for comment.

A Castilla-La Mancha government spokesperson said ​147 people, including a baby, were on board the Iryo train and 397 on the Renfe service when the crash occurred about 9am, derailing two Iryo carriages.

Passenger Rafael Barcelo said he felt lucky as he had stepped away from his seat for a coffee, adding there had been at least eight victims from his carriage.

“We were having breakfast, drinking a coffee when we felt a very strong impact and we were sent flying,” he said.

Renfe said it had opened a special line for families of victims. 

The railway operator said it had suspended ticket sales on the Madrid-Andalusia high-speed corridor until December 13.

Spanish Health Minister Monica García said emergency workers were focusing on rescuing survivors and bodies from the two most damaged train cars.

The crash, which occurred in a flat stretch surrounded by olive fields in between the towns of Urda and Los Yebenes, left one car shredded into bits of metal and other material, scattering debris down a gravel slope.

The accident was between two high-speed trains heading in the same direction from the capital Madrid to Seville in southwestern Spain, according to Esther Padilla, spokeswoman for the Castilla La Mancha region.

with AP

In case you missed it: Shoebridge and Wong spar over Russia and Ukraine

Skye Predavec



Yesterday afternoon, as Greens leader David Shoebridge asked the Foreign Minister about Australia’s sanctions on the Myanmar Government during their ongoing civil war, Penny Wong took the opportunity for a jab over the Greens’ policy on Ukraine.

Wong accused the Greens of being “pro-Russia”, while Shoebridge labelled the attack “shameless” in the content of the government’s refusal to adopt EU-style sanctions to prevent 2.6 million tonnes of Russian-origin oil since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Wong: “I would also note that one of Myanmar’s biggest arms suppliers is Russia Senator Shoebridge.”

Shoebridge: “Well indeed, so we should stop giving money to Russia by buying Russian oil.”

Wong: “You know I’m really very happy to have a discussion with you on Russia-Ukraine after your unilateral upturning of Greens policy to abandon Ukraine”

Shoebridge: “You can falsely make those positions, you’re a foreign minister, you’re meant to make your statements based on evidence, that statement is false and misleading – it undermines my confidence in any of the answers you give …”

Good morning

Hello and welcome to the final The Point Live for this sitting.

It’s mostly about what has happened outside of the parliament, with inflation continuing to chase the government around like my cat with a sunbeam.

The September figures all but set in stone another rate rise by the RBA next week. Not because you or I are spending (in this economy?!) but because oil prices are fuelling inflation. Oh – and AI data centres. Huzzah!

So it’s all a bit of a mess and we will be made to pay for it.

We’re going to jump right in today, so grab your coffee – I am on coffee number three. We are almost through it, so brace yourself for one last question time. I believe in us.

Ready?


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