The Point Live: AUKUS and AI data centres under scrutiny, estimates continues. As it happened.

I have to go harass the PMO for royalties after Anthony Albanese stole my joke in question time today when he called Angus Taylor Temu Abbott. I would have gone for something a little more alliteration like AliExpress Abbott, or Temu Tony or just something really simple like The Reject Shop, but that’s just me.

Tomorrow is a big day for economics nerds in estimates so the economists are very excited, but that is because they are nerds. Thankfully, they are nerdy in all the right ways and will be able to pick through all of that for you.

Thank you to everyone who dropped by – let us know what else you would like covered, as we continue to grow this little project. I read all your messages, even if I don’t get back to you and I am very grateful for how invested you all are.

So until tomorrow, take care of you. Ax

The Antipoverty Centre has put out some information on the senate estimates hearing which covered unlawful welfare cancellations, with the committee hearing that potentially 100,000 welfare recipients have been impacted:

New information revealed today by the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations in estimates hearings suggests upwards of 100,000 people may have had their Centrelink payment unlawfully cancelled under the Targeted Compliance Framework – roughly 10 times the number the department has publicly admitted to prior to today. 

• DEWR has published information indicating up to 9,510 unlawful payment cancellations or reductions under 42AF(2)(d) and 42AH of the Social Security (Administration) Act 1999. 
• Under questioning from Senator Barbara Pocock in estimates, DEWR’s Bronwyn Field first said that work by the department following Economic Justice Australia analysis that identified 310,000 potential unlawful cancellations under section 42AM found “[the number of potentially unlawful cancellations] is in the vicinity of that”.
• Field subsequently walked this back, saying that some people whose payment was cancelled under section 42AM may have lost eligibility because they had paid work above the income threshold, with this potentially being between 55–70% based on data from an unrelated participant survey. 
• Taking the most conservative view of Field’s hearing evidence, at least an additional 93,000 people may have been subject to an unlawful payment cancellation on top of the 9,510 figure DEWR previously made public. 

Today’s hearing follows the last week’s much-hyped employment services announcement, which is set to lock the current “mutual” obligations rules in place. In today’s hearing, DEWR also confirmed there is no intention to change to the governing legislation – which was last overhauled in 2021 under the Morrison government – to enable the Albanese government’s planned reforms or to address the legal quagmire the system has faced since unlawful cancellations were discovered in 2023. 

In response to questions about complaints data, DEWR was unable to provide information about the nature of complaints it has received, but confirmed they have not seen a reduction in complaints since a new complaints service was established 18 months ago. More than 8000 complaints were documented by the department between 1 July 2025 and 31 March 2026, however the complaints service has been plagued with long and unresolved wait times since mid-2025, increasing from an average of less than half an hour from when the service was established to over an hour in July and August 2025. Questions put to DEWR during estimates in December 2025 revealed more than 140,000 calls to the complaints line went unanswered between November 2024 and September 2025. The Antipoverty Centre is in contact with people reporting wait times 3 –7 hours long. 

The head of the complaints service Lisa Schofield also stated that issues with providers harassing participants for payslips – which they are not required to share – have been resolved, following a letter sent by DEWR to providers. She was unable to give a figure for the number of complaints DEWR received in relation to payslip harassment. The Antipoverty Centre has seen no reduction in issue in the support we provide to welfare recipients including multiple people we are assisting right now, and continue to see examples shared on social media. 

Antipoverty Centre spokesperson Jay Coonan said:

“The government’s so-called employment services “reform” does nothing but recycle old ideas welfare recipients have heard a thousand times, but flashy announcements have been helpful in distracting the public from the real story – the continued use of unlawful welfare penalties under the Targeted Compliance Framework, which has been mired in controversy since 2024. 

“People are still being harassed and penalised by providers who seem to feel they are completely beyond reproach and suffer no consequences for their mistreatment of people with compulsory activities. 

“Today it’s been confirmed that the legislative architecture that has punished millions of welfare recipients will remain unchanged. Minister Rishworth wants to change the packaging but keep the punishment. 

“The decision to keep this underlying system of coercion and punishment operating ignores the longstanding demands of participants – and more than a dozen civil society groups – who for years who have called for a new system that is voluntary and genuinely supportive. 

“Again they’ve been ignored, and continue to be punished unlawfully in the wake of the Commonwealth Ombudsman raising the alarm about this life-ruining penalty system.” 

The interactions between Senators on the Community Affairs Legislation Committee and Department of Health, Disability and Ageing officials lead viewers of Estimates today to one conclusion: the Australian healthcare system is a beast – a vast, fragmented, unwieldy beast.

The questions about private health insurance – its various tiers, what is covered, gap fees, and its interaction with Medicare benefits – are enough to induce vertigo.

It’s clear the Senators have no idea what’s going on. It’s also clear that officials struggle to explain how all the different sectors, factors and variables interact.

What chance does the average person have?

PJ O’Rourke said that “beyond a certain point, complexity is fraud”.

He may as well have been talking about this healthcare system of ours.

I think we are all Zoe McKenzie in this pic.

Here is how the rest of QT played out – plenty of laughs from the MPs today

A very big thank you to Glenn for taking us through that – I’ll have a quick look to see what else is happening

Today’s national accounts publication shows productivity declined in the March quarter with market sector productivity down 0.7% in that quarter.

Commentators, including shadow Treasurer, Tim Wilson in question time (3 June), have said that the decline in productivity should not have happened and that the government is responsible.

Over recent years there has been a lot of discussion about productivity and the general presumption that it is a good thing. So today’s fall in productivity for the March quarter will be regarded as a bad thing. But we should be careful about what we wish for. Productivity issues have to be seen in context.

Falls in productivity, like in today’s national accounts, mean less output is produced by the workforce but equally it means that more people are employed than would have been otherwise employed for the same output. Without the 0.7% fall in productivity employment would have fallen instead.

In December 2025 employment in the market sector was approximately 11.5 million people. That means without the fall in productivity the same output could have been produced with 80,500 fewer workers. That on its own could have seen unemployment increase by over 0.5 percentage points to around 5%, a rate not seen since June 2021. Already we have witnessed unemployment increasing from 3.4% in October 2022 to 4.5% now.

The fall in output per head by 0.1% in the latest national accounts and sluggish growth prior to that suggests the Reserve Bank strategy is working as does the rise in unemployment. That is a strategy of contracting the economy in the hope of reducing inflation. Low and indeed falling productivity is an inevitable outcome of the Reserve Bank’s contractionary policy. Why would business invest in improving their productivity when demand for their output is sluggish?

The Bureau of Statistics today released data on the consumption of tobacco and it makes for pretty brutal reading.

The ABS has long realised that illegal tobacco consumption has been an issue. Because it is illegal it hasn’t been appearing in the sales and consumption data, and this made it look like tobacco consumption was falling.

Alas that is not so/ The ABS estimate that tobacco consumption Is 50% higher than it was in 2016

The figures suggest price has had a big role to play in the shift from legal to illegal cigarettes. Since the end of 2016, the price of legal cigarettes have risen 168% while the cost of illegal cigarettes is largely unchanged

That would suggest though that in real terms illegal cigarettes have fallen around 25% compared to 2016 – and as has always been the case when the price of something falls, demand rises.

This all means there is a big problem for the government. Higher tobacco excise is no longer reducing tobacco consumption, and it suggests any more rises in the excise are mostly going to drive more people to cheaper illegal cigarettes.

The PM calls it, with a reference to Michael McCormack‘s Origin night clash with drunks outside a Canberra club last week.

The former Nats leader was caught on camera trading insults with a man urinating outside the Eastlake Football Club in Griffith.

Mr McCormack was interjecting just before the PM called time …

I ask that further questions be placed on the notice paper, and I also ask that Michael McCormack be given question number one tomorrow.

Here’s how Mike Bowers saw QT:

Independent Member for Clark, Andrew Wilkie:

Minister, in a 2023 CSIRO report, you noted that 240 mines will close by 2040 at an annual cost of 4-to-$8 billion Can you assure us that companies have provided for this expenditure, and that taxpayers won’t be left to pick up the tab?

Minister for Resources, Madeleine King:

Governments in all of our states and in the Northern Territory require mining companies to plan for closure from the outset, and to back those plans with financial assurances, including the payment of bonds and other similar schemes. There are, however, legacy mines around the country that came to existence before … the states and the Northern Territory manage those legacy mines, and the remediation and rehabilitation of them, so while not footing the bill for Commonwealth taxpayers, the Commonwealth does support responsible mine rehabilitation in a number of ways.

There is a lot of work to do on rehabilitation. Taxpayers are not footing the bill, but the state and territory governments are primarily responsible for making sure that that rehabilitation happens. But we support them as we can.

The good: Senator Ruston asked if the revenue from reducing the private health insurance (PHI) rebate for over 65s (about $450 million) will indeed be earmarked for aged care and not just flow to general revenue. This is key, because more aged care spaces will free up public hospital capacity (by accommodating older patients ‘stranded’ in acute hospitals because of a lack of aged care space).

Officials confirm that, yes, the revenue will go towards aged care. (Good to have them know that this will be scrutinised.)

The bad: The Senator then quoted “Linda” – a pensioner who says that she relies on PHI to “keep her out of the emergency department” and asks how the officials wish to respond.

The officials mention aged care, investment in public hospitals, bulk billing, and the PBS.

All correct, although they might also have said that PHI HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT CARE. Private EDs charge an up-front fee to all comers, regardless of insurance status. By law, insurance only kicks in once a patient moves past ED and is formally admitted to a hospital (an emergency presentation is not classified as an admission)  

What does keep people like Linda out of emergency departments is better primary care and social support – both also completely independent of PHI.

Linda’s example demonstrates how well scare campaigns can work – even (or especially) if based on misinformation.

Member for Ryan, Elizabeth Watson-Brown:

According to Oxfam, over the last year 17 more billionaires have been added to Australia’s billionaires list, now at 178 This time next year, do you think there should be fewer or more Australian billionaires?

Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese:

What I want, what I want is for people to be as successful as possible. Now, for most people, overwhelmingly, that’s not about whether there are more billionaires or not. It’s about whether they get a roof over their head that they own. Most Australians don’t aspire to be billionaires. What they do aspire to, though, is to live a life of comfort.

On Monday, the Victorian Government announced plans to strengthen the state’s Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission (IBAC), giving it ‘follow-the-money’ investigatory powers.

At the moment, IBAC can only investigate conduct with direct links to public officers or bodies. But these changes, recommended by a 2025 Parliamentary inquiry into IBAC, would allow it to ‘follow’ public funds through to private contractors and subcontractors on major government projects.

The reforms also expand the definition of corrupt conduct, allowing IBAC to investigate a wider range of behaviour, including “serious breaches of public trust”, and increase the transparency of IBAC’s work.

Transparency International Australia welcomed the strengthened powers, saying they will “greatly boost IBAC’s investigate muscle to help stamp out corruption in the construction sector and shine a light on dodgy deals and illicit money trails.”

But while the reforms themselves have been broadly welcomed, the politicking around them has been more controversial. Former IBAC commissioner Robert Redlich told The Age that “Unfortunately, everything I saw in my period as commissioner points me in the same direction, the enemy of integrity is party self-interest, protecting the party, advancing the party system.”

Angus Taylor has asked about the fall in living standards.

He’s right, living standards did fall slightly in the March quarter

But almost half of the reason for the fall in living standards was the increases in interest rates, and they remain higher than a year ago.

Angus Taylor’s question about GDP per capita going backwards means that the only reason the economy is growing is because of migration is pretty stupid in the best of times, but today it really highlights his lack of understanding of the National Accounts.

The reason the economy went backwards in per capita terms was because of trade – we imported more than we exported. Net exports detracted form GDP growth.

The domestic economy (which is measures by a thing called “Gross National Expenditure GNE) rose – both in total and per capita terms

So the economy didn’t grow because of population growth it failed to grow by more because of trade (which was affected by a combination of the Iran War and a surge in imports of datacentre equipment).

This all goes to wondering what the hell we are arguing over, and if anyone on the opposition really have a clue.

Member for Moncrieff, Angie Bell:

There are over 70,000 community sporting clubs across Australia, many of which rely on donations from trusts. How many community sporting clubs will now feel the brunt of Labor’s minimum 30 per cent tax on trusts?

Treasurer, Jim Chalmers:

As those opposite are aware, charitable trusts are exempt from the minimum, and there are other exemptions as well. When it comes to fixed trusts, for example, they are exempt, and there’s other kinds of exemptions and concessions built into the proposal that we put in the budget, Mr. Speaker, and as always always, when it comes to tax reform of this kind, the final implementation details are subject to the usual kind of consultation.

Opposition Leader, Angus Taylor:

Since Labor came to office, Australians have experienced the sharpest fall in living standards in the developed world. When will the Prime Minister admit his economic strategy has failed Australians?

Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese:

Speaker, we see a global crisis as an opportunity, as an opportunity to talk Australia up. They see it as an opportunity to talk Australia down. We have growth today of 2.5% which is higher than it is higher than the majority of the OECD … the Liberal One Nationals, over there says it’s the worst in the world.

Now we are growing faster than most of the developed world. We have Temu Abbott over here … trying to divide Australia as they always do.

Independent Member for Warringah, Zali Steggall:

In the 1980s your Labor mentor, Tom Uren, fought to stop Commonwealth from selling off HMS Penguin at Balmoral. In 2021 you invoked Uren in parliament, saying Sydney Harbor belongs to the nation and should stay in public hands. So, why is your government now planning to sell off parts of Penguin at Middle Head against community wishes? And will you commit to setting aside Angophora remnant bushland for conservation and keeping historic buildings in public hands?

Defence Minister, Richard Marles:

We are working with communities around Australia who are proximate to each of these estates, each of these defense properties, each of these bases, including HMAS Penguin, and we are absolutely committed to working through with the community what is the future use in respect of HMAS Penguin, and we have been doing that from the moment that we did the defence estate audit and had an examination as to whether each of these properties had a role to play in our defence force, and if not, what role they could otherwise play. Now, as the member, I assume, may know, the process that we have announced is that these properties will be transferred from the Department of Defense to the Department of Finance relatively quickly over a period of the next couple of years, but from there the process of disposing the properties will take as long as it does, and that means that there will be adequate time in which to engage with communities to deal with questions such as the one that the Hon. member has raised, and we certainly are very willing to work through with the Honorable Member those issues.

Malcolm Roberts has joined the Senate Estimates on Health – and asks if aligning the private health insurance rebate for over 65s is part of a “socialist agenda”.  

There you have it.

Shadow Treasurer, Tim Wilson:

Today’s national accounts show the sharpest fall in productivity in almost two years, with productivity down more than 5% on Labor’s watch. Treasurer, why is Labor introducing a productivity tax during a productivity crisis?

Treasurer, Jim Chalmers:

He said that productivity is down 5% since this government took office, and so I checked out that number, Mr. Speaker, and I’m pleased that I did. I want to tell the House why I’m pleased that I checked out that number. It turns out that the 5% number that the Shadow Treasurer is using includes the March quarter of 2022 Now, Mr. Speaker, we were elected in May of 2022 the first time, and so in March quarter of 2022 and I saw, I thought to myself, I wonder why he’s including the March quarter of 2022 and pretending Labor was in office when the coalition was in office. Let me tell you why he’s doing that, Mr. Speaker, it’s because productivity in the March quarter of 2022 fell by 2.3% and that was the biggest fall in productivity in more than 40 years, Mr. Speaker. So it always pays to check the numbers, it always pays to check the numbers. The Shadow Treasurer, he got the fuel excites wrong, he got his fuel security policy wrong, he got the amount of shareholders amongst young people wrong? He got the dual mandate wrong for the Reserve Bank, Mr. Speaker. Again and again and again.

Opposition Leader, Angus Taylor:

Today’s national accounts show GDP per person went backwards in the March quarter for the 10th time out of 15 quarters under Labor, on Labor’s watch, more than 1.4 million migrants have arrived in Australia. Prime Minister, why is out of control migration your only strategy to achieve economic growth?

Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese:

Our Australian economy is growing, and it grew by 0.3% in the March quarter to be 2.5% higher during the year, which under the circumstances of what is happening in the March quarter … there was this event on February 28 (the start of the US-Iran war) there was this little event. They say that is an excuse. This is the mob who … also criticised the work that we have done on fuel security.

Not sure if there’s some sort of “gotcha” follow-up on the way, but the Leader of the Opposition has opened QT with what sounds like a Dixer.

Angus Taylor:

My question is to the Prime Minister today. We welcome the Prime Minister of Solomon Islands, Matthew Whaley, to this place. Solomon Islands is a dear neighbor and an indispensable friend to Australia. What is the government doing to deepen this friendship and support the sovereignty of Sovereign Islands in the face disruptions to peace in the Pacific.

Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese:

I thank the leader of the opposition, and indeed was an absolute pleasure to welcome the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, Matthew Whaley, and his ministers to our nation’s capital. I ask everyone to give them a welcome. Our nation is very honored that the Prime Minister has chosen Australia for his first overseas visit since taking office just a few days ago, really about two weeks ago. That decision reflects the history and the deep bonds of cooperation that have linked our two nations and our two peoples over decades. As Prime Minister Wale said earlier today, the resilience of our relationship is self-evident, and it certainly is. At the request of the Solomon Islands, our two nations will commence negotiations on a new comprehensive treaty underpinned by mutual trust, respect, and open dialog. This new treaty will help us confront global and regional challenges together as equal partners in the pursuit of peace across the Blue Pacific.

I didn’t complete the project which was supposed to be completed on Monday and to save me from faking my death, Glenn has kindly offered to shepherd the blog throughout question time.

Please say hello. I will be bringing him a cinnamon jam doughnut and my undying gratitude as a thank you.

Senator David Pocock asked why the same imaging company charges ACT residents $60 more for an ultrasound scan than NSW residents just across the border.

Good question. Specialist fees are significantly higher in the ACT compared with the rest of the country (see p.25 here)

Officials point to current changes such as improving the Medical Costs Finder website, and the upcoming Parliamentary inquiry on access to medical specialists.

The short answer is the current regulatory arrangements allow specialists to charge what the market will bear. ACT residents are obviously paying up … otherwise fees would drop to ensure scanners aren’t sitting there idle.

Markets and social services, eh?

If you want to understand the limitations of GDP as a measure of wellbeing, then the latest figures for the March quarter are a great example. 

The overall picture saw the economy grew by 0.3% for the March quarter and 2.5% for the last year. This shows slow growth but not as slow as some were predicting.

The war in Iran and the subsequent increase in fuel prices did affect the numbers but not as much as you might think. This was because the war didn’t start until March, and these figures cover one of the three months that make up the data. Expect a bigger impact next quarter.

There were a couple of big changes.

First, private investment was the biggest contributor to growth. Great, you might think, economists love investment. That means businesses are putting more money into how they produce goods and that is the best way to increase productivity.

But the private investment was mainly driven by data centres. This involves importing expensive computer chips from overseas, sticking them in a building and then having them suck in enormous amounts of electricity and water.

The actual benefit for Australia is very small. Most of the value in this investment goes to buying imported chips, which means all the economic benefit occurs before they arrive in the country.

That’s before we get to the question of whether artificial intelligence (AI) is going to add much to productivity. If we are seeing a massive over-investment in AI – many people think that’s exactly what is happening – then many of these data centres might end up as stranded assets.

The second big factor for the numbers was the biggest detractor from growth: net exports. Net exports are exports (how much we sell overseas) minus imports (how much we buy from overseas).

Exports dropped, mainly in the mining sector. This was because weather conditions (like cyclones) affect mining companies’ ability to ship their products overseas. This might have a big impact on the official GDP figures, but it has a small impact on Australians’ wellbeing.

Most of the benefit from mining comes in the form of the profits the mining companies make. Because most mining companies are foreign owned, these profits mainly flow overseas. So, the drop in mining profits because they couldn’t export as much stuff, doesn’t impact us very much.

At the same time exports were falling, imports were rising. In particular imports of microchips for all those data centres.

So, the biggest contributor to growth, data centres, and the biggest detractor from growth, mining profits, are both going to have an underwhelming impact on most Australians’ lives.

It highlights that often the GDP figures don’t measure what is really important.

There is one other thing from these numbers that will attract attention, but for all the wrong reasons. That’s the federal, state, and local governments’ contributions to economic growth.

This quarter it was zero.

Expect to see the Federal Labor Government crow about how it is not adding to demand. Why? Because the opposition has been droning on about how government demand is adding to inflation.

To be clear, the current inflation rate has been largely caused by a supply shock and has nothing to do with excessive demand.

This conversation will obscure a real problem. The economy is slowing and that should mean an increase in government spending to help speed it up. But the opposite is happening. Government spending is slowing, putting economic growth at further risk.

All this shows the shallow and insipid commentary we have in this country on government spending and inflation and what dangers having the wrong discussion can create for Australian people.

As has been pointed out in the comments, Pauline Hanson is addressing the National Press Club on the 17th of June.

Let’s see if they try to ban any journalists (Hanson doesn’t have any control over that, but that doesn’t mean they won’t try!)

Get your bingo cards ready for how often she claims victimhood.

One of the things which is driving inflation are AI data centres. So not only are they driving inflation increases in Australia, they are also worsening global warming and climate outcomes. Huzzah!

But Jim Chalmers is happy for the investment:

This government has always said that when we see this welcome boom in investment in tech infrastructure, that we want to make sure it’s consistent with all of our other obligations, whether it be natural resource management, whether it be skills issues around foreign investment, and the like.

This investment [in AI] is overwhelmingly a good thing, but the government’s AI plan and the work that the government is doing is all about making the most of it, making sure that all of this investment serves our national economic interest.

Everyone was pretty happy

The Australian Defence Force has been criticised for its phase out of planes it has operated for only a decade in favour of commercial replacements.

“You guys don’t really actually have a plan, do you? You have no idea,” independent senator Jacqui Lambie told senior Air Force officials at a federal budget inquiry on Wednesday.

“It’s really embarrassing for me who wore that uniform.”

The Royal Australia Air Force will phase out C-27J Spartan planes just 11 years after the first one landed in Australia, but it is yet to disclose a detailed replacement plan.

The Spartans – which are small enough to land on short, soft runways but can carry troops and equipment – is being phased out just over a decade after they were first brought in.

Last week, the Government announced a once-in-a-generation reform to JobSeeker. For a long time, that is forever, the Jobseeker payment, formerly known as Newstart, popularly known as ‘the dole’ has been well below the poverty line.

The poverty line measures the minimum weekly income required to meet the basic needs of life: food, shelter, clothing, health, and education. The current poverty linein Australia is estimated by ACOSS to be $584 a week for a single adult.

With new research from Oxfam reporting that Australia now has a record 178 billionaires, and 3.7 million living in poverty it’s worth taking a data-driven analytical view of the how the JobSeeker changes will improve the outcomes of those relying on JobSeeker.

The chart below shows how much the Jobseeker payment will increase, relative to the poverty line, following the announced changes in JobSeeker.

Big fat zero.

The announced changes to JobSeeker have done nothing to close the gap between the poverty line and the Jobseeker payment. 

It gets worse, over time the JobSeeker payment increases in line with inflation, whereas the poverty line tends to grow a bit faster. The poverty line is defined as 50% of median incomes, and median incomes usually grow faster than inflation. That means the gap between JobSeeker and the poverty is likely to grow.

So, really, the once-in-a-generation reform to JobSeeker is no reform at all: JobSeeker will remain grossly inadequate.

Skye Predavec

Today, former Canberra Liberals leader Leanne Castley left the party, and will now sit as an independent in the Legislative Assembly.

Castley blamed the Liberal Party’s “toxic culture” as the reason for her move, saying “everyone deserves a safe workplace free from bullying, intimidation and threats of violence.”

With this move, the Coalition now has just 98 women elected across Australia’s state, territory and federal parliaments – compared to over 200 men.

That’s a far cry from Labor or the Greens, with women making up a majority of those parties’ MPs, and it’s only marginally ahead of One Nation, where three quarters of MPs are men.

There’s a clear solution to the problem: gender quotas.

In 2015 the Liberal and Labor parties set the same target for women’s representation: 50%. Labor implemented gender quotas, and reached its target early. The Liberals didn’t, and they’ve barely made progress.

In fact, the main reason the Liberals have moved closer to gender parity is that they’ve lost so many male MPs, going from 274 in 2015 to 157 today. Over the same time, they’ve gone from 79 women to 81 – an increase of just two.

The Liberals recently published an recent internal discussion paper prepared by Senator James McGrath commented on the dire state of the party’s gender representation,

“It is increasingly clear that if serious progress is to be made in delivering greater gender balance in our parliamentary team, additional measures will be required. None of them would be easy or without complication or resistance from some. However, if we want a different outcome, we need to be prepared to do things differently.”

To take on this challenge, the Liberals now have a former Minister for Women taking over the party’s presidency: Tony Abbott.

When Abbott was Prime Minister, he doubled the number of women in his cabinet… from one to two. For comparison, Scott Morrison had eight women in his final cabinet, and Anthony Albanese now has twelve (a majority).

Time will tell if Abbott’s presidency of the Liberal party will finally see the party make real progress towards gender-parity.

So I was right!! Woot!! Chalk one up for me (first time for everything) 

Quarterly GDP growth of 0.3%, and annual of 2.5%

Matt Grudnoff will do a bigger dive into the numbers but the overall story is that big domestic driver of growth was private investment and all of that really was datacentres, and that most of that growth was wiped out by the fall in net exports (ie we imported more than we exported)

That sound you hear is Chalmers’ sigh of relief. It’s a long one, but here is the Treasurer’s statement on GDP:

Today’s National Accounts show the Australian economy grew 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, to be 2.5 per cent higher through the year.  

This is very solid in the circumstances.  

This is the equal fastest pace of annual growth in almost three years.  

It shows how resilient our economy is at a time of substantial global economic volatility. 

The biggest takeaway of today’s National Accounts is that all of the growth in the March quarter came from the private sector. 

Private sector investment is booming in Australia. 

Economic growth was driven by strong growth in business investment, solid consumption and ongoing growth in dwelling investment.   

New public final demand made almost no contribution to quarterly GDP growth.  

Annual growth in Australia is faster than almost every major advanced economy and above the OECD average.  

The Australian economy is outperforming when it comes to annual growth, has stronger employment growth than almost every major advanced economy, and has lower gross debt-to-GDP than every single major advanced economy.  

Australia is not immune from the volatility and uncertainty in the global economy, but these new numbers show we are well placed and well prepared to confront these challenges. 

The largest and most significant contributor to growth in today’s figures was business investment, which recorded its fastest quarterly growth in nearly a decade and a half.  

New business investment grew 5.7 per cent in the quarter to be 10.4 per cent higher through the year. It contributed 0.7 percentage points to quarterly growth. 

Business investment was driven by the largest through-the-year rise in machinery and equipment investment in more than two decades.  

While data centre investment has been strong, business investment has also been supported by the rollout of renewable energy and battery storage. 

The outlook for investment is encouraging, with CAPEX survey data from last week showing the level of nominal spending was upgraded in both 2025-26 and 2026-27 to around $200 billion in each year.  

CAPEX was more than six times higher than the median market expectation for the quarter.  

As a share of the economy, business investment is now at 12.9 per cent, the highest in nearly a decade and much higher than the 11.3 per cent we inherited. 

Business investment collapsed under our predecessors but we’re turning that around. 

Annualised average new business investment is growing at 5.2 per cent under us after going backwards by an average of 1.3 per cent under them.  

Business investment was the key reason why private demand grew faster than public demand in the quarter. New private final demand grew 1.3 per cent, to be 4.0 per cent higher through the year.  

It contributed 0.9 percentage points to growth this quarter, which is the sixth consecutive quarter that new private final demand has contributed more to growth than public demand.  

There was continued strength in dwelling investment, which for the first time in eleven years recorded its ninth consecutive quarter of growth.  

Dwelling investment grew 0.7 per cent in the quarter to be 3.5 per cent higher through the year. When we came to office, it was going backwards by 3.6 per cent.  

This comes after data yesterday which showed trend building approvals grew 9.8 per cent in the 12 months to April. This is another solid turnaround from the fall of 21.6 per cent when we came to office.  

These figures are welcome, especially given our continued primary focus on boosting housing supply to improve affordability and homeownership.  

Household consumption grew 0.5 per cent in the quarter to be 2.5 per cent higher through the year.  

The data shows that households in particular were not immune from the impacts of the conflict, with elevated fuel prices contributing to operation of vehicles experiencing the largest price increase across all consumption categories, rising 1.8 per cent.  

The data also showed that mortgage interest costs were up 5.1 per cent in the quarter, but the full impact of recent interest rate movements will be reflected in future quarters.  

Despite these impacts, solid consumption was supported by a resilient labour market in this quarter.   

Compensation of employees was up 1.2 per cent in the quarter to be 5.9 per cent higher through the year. This has again pushed the wage share of income to 54.2 per cent, up from the 49.0 per cent we inherited.  

In annual terms, the National Accounts measure of prices moderated to 3.0 per cent, down from 3.2 per cent in the previous quarter. 

As with recent CPI figures, these price increases remain higher than we would like but it is still welcome to see them ease in the quarter.  

Public final demand made almost no contribution to growth in the quarter. It grew 0.1 per cent, to be 2.5 per cent higher through the year. This is a significant moderation from 0.9 per cent in the previous quarter.  

The weakness in public final demand was partially driven by the Government’s responsible decision to end energy bill relief, which saw government consumption fall by 0.2 per cent in the quarter.  

Net exports detracted 0.8 percentage points from growth. Exports fell 1.1 per cent in the quarter, as exports for iron ore and coal were impacted by weather events. Imports grew by 2.1 per cent in the quarter largely reflecting the strong business investment. 

Productivity declined in the quarter but increased 0.3 per cent through the year. While quarterly productivity figures can be volatile, we are doing more in the Budget to turn Australia’s longstanding productivity challenge around.  

The pickup in the private economy, driven by booming investment, is an important strength as we confront a challenging global economic environment.  

Under Labor, annual economic growth is ahead of every major advanced economy, business investment is strengthening, more than 1.2 million jobs have been created, unemployment is low, participation is at near record highs and wages growth is solid. 

The Budget we handed down last month was all about cutting taxes for workers, making it easier to get into the housing market, and boosting productivity.  

The Budget included $3.5 billion in business tax relief to encourage even more investment and innovation in the private sector.  

This Government and our Budget is very focused on resilience and reform, to respond to our economic challenges and make the most of our opportunities at a time of substantial volatility and uncertainty in the world. 

There will always be those who want to talk our economy and our people down for political purposes, but these National Accounts are a very welcome and timely reminder of our strengths in challenging times. 

The prime minister has wandered into the chamber to deliver a speech on Labor’s budget bill, specifically the tax changes. It’s up to MPs whether or not they speak on a bill, so when the prime minister does it, it’s because he’s deemed it important – it’s guaranteed to get media coverage. To help with this, the PMO usually alerts the press gallery that the PM is entering the chamber.

Here are the Labor lines for today (the bill will head off to the senate tomorrow, where it will be part of a committee inquiry over the next couple of weeks ahead of the next senate sitting)

This bill, that every single Labor member of the House of Representatives is looking forward to voting for tomorrow, delivers a new $250 Working Australians Tax Offset to over 13 million working Australians, $1000 instant tax deduction that will benefit around 6 million low- and middle-income Australians, and reforms to negative gearing and capital gains that will rebalance the tax system and finally give young people a fair crack at home ownership.

Australians feel like the economy isn’t working for them, our government is not going to waste a single moment defending a system that everyone knows is broken, nor are we going to sit back and wring our hands and hope that something will turn up.”

Australian gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3 per cent in the March quarter 2026 and 2.5 per cent compared to a year ago (seasonally adjusted, chain volume measure), according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). 

Grace Kim, ABS head of National Accounts, said: “Economic growth slowed in the March quarter, with modest household and public sector expenditure as well as cyclone disruptions to mining and export activities.” 

Household spending rose 0.5 per cent in the March quarter. This growth includes elevated spending on electricity, gas and other fuels (up 11.7 per cent) as government rebates ceased, raising out‑of‑pocket expenditure for households.

Household spending on essential goods and services increased by 0.8 per cent, while discretionary spending rose by 0.1 per cent. “Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in the March month likely created an environment for more cautious consumer behaviour. This resulted in reduced spending across a range of household expenditure categories,” Ms Kim added. Household spending results in this release predates the halving of the fuel excise on 1 April.

Government final consumption expenditure fell 0.2 per cent, the lowest quarterly growth since September quarter 2022. Commonwealth spending slowed from recent high levels of defence expenditure, while state and local government spending fell 0.8 per cent following the ending of electricity rebate payments.

Weather disruptions impacted export dependent industries. Mining production fell 1.5 per cent, while transport, postal and warehousing activity declined 1.3 per cent. 

Exports fell 1.1 per cent, the largest quarterly decline in two years, driven by falls in coal (down 6.8 per cent) and mineral ores (down 1.3 per cent). Imports of capital goods rose 6.3 percent, as total imports grew 2.1 per cent. Overall, net trade detracted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth.

Private business investment rose 6.0 per cent, driven by a 16.3 per cent increase in machinery and equipment (M&E). “M&E investment recorded the largest rise in 30 years with the expansion of data centres in New South Wales and Victoria during the quarter. The contribution of investment to GDP growth was moderated as most of this equipment was imported,” Ms Kim added.

The household saving to income ratio fell to 6.2 per cent, down from 7.0 per cent in the December quarter. This fall reflects the rise in household spending in nominal terms which outpaced the rise in household disposable income. Household disposable income was driven by a 1.2 per cent rise in compensation of employees while the increase in income tax and interest payments detracted from growth.

While illicit tobacco is not reflected in the official National Accounts data, the level of public interest led the ABS to develop experimental estimates of household consumption of illicit tobacco and nicotine products and its impact on economic statistics. This release includes an analytical article containing these estimates and their theoretical impact on published economic statistics. Grace Kim said, “Experimental estimates based on wastewater analysis indicate that the share of tobacco and nicotine products consumed from illicit sources is substantial and growing although it does not have a material impact on the level or growth of household consumption.”

Labor Senator Michelle Ananda-Rajah asking some useful questions about bulk billing GP numbers.

Department officials crow about the 4.6 percentage point rise in GP bulk billing over the past year nationally, higher in rural and remote regions 

The Senator (who is one of the star performers on this Committee imo) follows up with question asking whether there is any evaluation about the quality of the services provided. This exactly the right question. Growth in bulk billing itself isn’t a sign that the outcomes of the consultations improving Australians’ health.

For example, doctors may be shoehorning more patients into rapid 6-minute consultations that are more lucrative to bulk bill, and doing more of these at the expense of longer consultations that more complex patients require. If this is the case we have false economy, especially if the health of these patients starts to suffer as a result – an example of meeting the target but not the objective.

Department officials are saying that this type of evaluation is forthcoming. One to keep an eye on.

In the Employment committee Liberal Senator Matt O’Sullivan is asking about the costs of the new process where there will be 3 streams. He asks if the Department could just breakdown the numbers currently.

The Departmental official notes that they are still working out precisely who will be in which stream but that the hope is that Stream 1, which is departmental run and is all online and doesn’t involve shitty Job providers, will work much better and people will opt to stay in the Stream and also that it will work better so that people will get jobs sooner. 

This probably explains why the Budget forecast a reduction in Jobseeker spending, despite unemployment being forecast to remain steady at 4.5%. In essence they are forecasting people will be unemployed for shorter times than in the past, so the overall Jobseeker cost is reduced. 

What is left unsaid but is heavily implied is that the current privatised Job Networks are useless.

This was obvious in Amanda Rishworth’s speech last week – but also highlights the failure of the government. They know what the problem is, but they have decided to only partly fix it. Those unemployed who will likely get a job quickly will be spared the Job Network, but those who actually need better support are not. The government is trying to ‘reform” the job networks with better incentives. 

But a privatised public service always becomes about generating profits not better service.

Here is the official agreed upon outcomes of the leaders meeting between Anthony Albanese and Matthew Wale:

1.    Solomon Islands and Australia share longstanding and growing ties, embedded in our ancient cultural connections, shared geography, faith, and a history of standing together in challenging times. 

2.    Prime Minister Albanese was honoured to host Prime Minister Wale on his first international visit since his appointment on 15 May 2026. 

3.    Our countries have a relationship spanning economic, development and security sectors. Australia and Solomon Islands recognise the security, stability and prosperity of both nations and the Pacific region are inextricably linked.

4.    Prime Minister Albanese welcomed the new vision and focussed energy Prime Minister Wale is bringing to the relationship. He further acknowledged Prime Minister Wale’s wish to bring about transformational change in the relationship, cemented in a treaty, and significant enhancement of the bilateral development assistance partnership between the two countries. Prime Minister Albanese assured Prime Minister Wale of his commitment to work closely with him to achieve a shared vision for the partnership.

5.  During their discussion, Prime Minister Albanese and Prime Minister Wale committed to elevate the bilateral relationship on the basis of mutual trust, respect and open dialogue. Both leaders agreed to commence negotiations towards a comprehensive treaty to capture the two countries’ joint ambition for the relationship. Leaders tasked Foreign Ministers, in consultation with other relevant Ministers, to lead the development of this comprehensive treaty with a view to it being concluded as expeditiously as possible. 

6.     Both leaders agreed that while the treaty is being developed, Australia, as a committed and reliable partner to Solomon Islands and the Pacific, agreed to provide SBD200 million (AUD35 million) to assist Solomon Islands with the response to Tropical Cyclone Maila and the impacts of global energy shocks. Both leaders also agreed to continue discussions on how Australia could further support the new government’s agenda based on the vision for the relationship shared by Prime Minister Wale with Prime Minister Albanese. 

7.    In recognition of the priority Prime Minister Wale’s government places on education, Australia agreed to double the number of training and vocational scholarships to 1500 in 2027. Australia committed to work with all willing partners to help Solomon Islands achieve the new government’s goal of free education and provide the next generation of Solomon Islanders a brighter future. Leaders also discussed other opportunities to deepen the education partnership going forward. Leaders welcomed the impending opening of the Australian-funded Naha Birthing and Urban Health Centre in Honiara. 

8.    Leaders celebrated recent growth in our economic relationship, including the contributions of Solomon Islands PALM workers in Australia. Leaders also agreed to increase the number of Pacific Engagement visas to be offered to Solomon Islands to 300 for the next year of the program. This increase represents a doubling of Solomon Islands’ Pacific Engagement visa allocation and will further strengthen people-to-people ties and encourage greater cultural, business and educational exchange.

9.    Prime Minister Albanese and Prime Minister Wale reaffirmed the importance of the Solomon Islands–Australia security partnership. Leaders welcomed the continued partnership to grow the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force, including the planned completion of a new police academy in Honiara in 2028. The Leaders agreed to maintain the policing partnership through the next phase of the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force – Australia Policing Partnership Program. 

10.    Noting Australia’s longstanding investment in Solomon Islands’ sovereign security capabilities, including multiple projects across the country, Prime Minister Albanese and Prime Minister Wale acknowledged that Solomon Islands’ Western Border Outpost was nearing completion. The new facility will bring together police, customs, and immigration officials in a single location, enhancing Solomon Islands’ border security and maritime surveillance capability. 

On the Regional front:

11.    Leaders reiterated Australia and Solomon Islands are proud members of the Pacific Islands Forum and committed to work closely and energetically with other PIF members to strengthen the Pacific’s premier regional organisation.

12.    Leaders reiterated their support for the view of Pacific leaders, as expressed most recently in the Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration, that Pacific peace and security is best led and handled by the Pacific.

13.    Prime Minister Albanese consulted Prime Minister Wale, as current Pacific Islands Forum Chair, on the difficult global circumstances facing the Pacific, including climate change and rising energy prices, and the critical role the Pacific Islands Forum plays in bringing the region together to find shared solutions, including on maritime transnational crime. Leaders noted 2026 is an important year to amplify Pacific voices on climate action, with the Pre-COP Leaders’ Event to be held in the Pacific.

14.    Leaders expressed their commitment to shared responsibilities and contributions to regional security including through the Pacific Policing Initiative (PPI). They welcomed that Solomon Islands, under Prime Minister Wale’s leadership, signed the PPI Memoranda of Understanding to enable Royal Solomon Islands Police Force participation in the Pacific Police Support Group, which deploys at the request of other PIF members.

Conclusion

15.    Finally, Prime Minister Albanese and Prime Minister Wale, jointly affirmed the strong and enduring partnership between Australia and Solomon Islands and reiterated optimism for transformational and deepening engagement that will lift the relationship to another level. 

Greens Senator Steph Hodgins-May asked the department and Senator Chisolm if the Resources Minister met with anyone form the gas industry in the urn up to the budget. 

She doesn’t get an answer

She then asks if any gas reps were at the Budget function held on Budget night. Chisolm does not give and answer, not even saying whether or he did or did not have a beer with anyone from Santos. He says he doesn’t drink anymore at work functions but doesn’t even say if he talked to anyone. 

She then goes on to the reservation policy, pointing out Ken Henry in the recent inquiry into the taxation of gas noted it doesn’t raise a cent of revenue so why would the government do it?

Senator Chisolm says its important, will lead to lower gas prices domestically and “is an important part of our agenda” and he doesn’t really address Ken Henry’s line, saying he didn’t really follow the inquiry (which is pretty extraordinary for the Assistant Minister for Resources)

Hodgins-May then asks about tax policy and says a gas export tax “would help to secure domestic supply surely this was on the table alongside the reservation policy as an intervention, was it not?”

The Departmental official (we are talking to the Department of Industry , Science and Resources) notes the evidence given in the committee was all considered for government, but says the Department is not responsible for tax (ie ask the Treasury). 

She asks if he agrees that the gas export tax would fall on the gas companies not our trade partners. The Departmental official says he has not turned his mind to that (because DISR not do tax) 

She then asks why given the gas export tax and the reservation policy will have effectively the dame impact on supply internationally that the gas export tax was framed by the government as harmful to our trade partners but the reservation policy is not. 

Senator Chisolm doesn’t accept the characterisation and the government will make sure trading partners contracts are honoured. 

Hodgins-May notes in the inquiry trade partners didn’t worry about a gas export tax (except Japan who have a stake in INPEX) but they were worried about a reservation policy, but the government chose to push the opposite view. 

Senator McDonald comes back in. She’s not a fan of the gas reservation policy (because the gas industry does not like and she parrots whatever they say).

Anthony Albanese is speaking to the media with his Solomon Islands PM Matthew Wale.

It is all about moving forward in the direction of a strategic treaty. Which means that talks have begun, but there is nothing concrete as yet.

Weight-loss drugs like Ozempic may cut the risk of developing or dying from cancer by 30%, according to studies reported in the Guardian yesterday.

We can add this unexpected benefit of these drugs to others including reduction of arterial plaques, dementia onset, Parkinson’s disease symptoms, and chronic kidney disease.

If this keeps up (and we make no progress on reducing obesity) we might be pumping the stuff into our drinking water by the end of the decade.

Susan McDonald turned her attention to the “Conservation Council ACT” which she notes is a charity group (and has DGR status) that hosted the “National Rising Tide Book Club”. Given Rising Tide were behind the protest at the port of Newcastle Macdonald draws the long bow that “taxpayers funds could be supporting illegal activity”.

Government Senator Chisholm says he supports the right to protest, but agrees that the Rising Tide protest was not advisable nor safe.

McDonald keeps going on about these charitable organizations. She then asks whether anyone in the government has talked to the “assistant Climate Change minister (Josh Wilson) about his son attending this process”.

Senator Chisholm snaps back saying :

”I think you can do better than that Senator, targeting someone’s son, honestly”

McDonald replies: 

“I think he’s targeting us, he’s targeting Australia and the resources sector investment, trade relationships, and putting his life at risk” 

She then suggests ”He is part of the Labor Party family”

This is truly gross stuff.. Senator Chisolm rightly replies “I don’t think you want to go talking about our colleagues and their children, I would advise against that. It’s up to you…I caution you against that”

McDonald says this is the second time and “it’s not small beer”. She then says ”I appreciate the government doesn’t support fossil fuels but this is going too far”

She then goes back to asking whether the government supports organisations “abusing the DGR status”. Chisolm is far too smart to answer that dumb question and talks about the right to protest. 

McDonald bangs on about the “government rolling over” against protests. Chisolm says that’s a state policing matter.

McDonald say she is disappointed by the government’s response. Chisolm responds that he is disappointed by some of her questions. 

Senator Jordon Steele-John asking good questions about the difficulties people with complex medical needs face accessing primary to manage their condition(s).

This goes to the disproportionately lower benefits for longer GP consultations through Medicare … and to the (un)suitability of fee-for-service remuneration more broadly.

Independent MP Monique Ryan had some things to say about Medicare in The Saturday Paper on the weekend. Ryan, a paediatric neurologist, wrote that “Australia’s health system needs a fundamental reset” and makes the following points:

• Medicare was designed for a community with a vastly different demographic and disease profile. The biggest concern is that doctors are paid by ‘fee-for-service’, which rewards quick consultations – unsuited to an ageing, medically complex population.
• GP remuneration has stagnated, especially compared to non-GP specialties. A GP shortage has been forecast but there is no coherent national medical workforce plan.
• Specialist fees are rising and forcing people to delay or forego consultation.
• Additions like urgent care clinics are just band aids on a failing system.
• Chronic underfunding of public health and prevention.

Indeed. 

As I’ve argued before, the Australian healthcare system is going the way of the US – expensive, unequal and focused on rescue instead of prevention and early management. This is unsustainable. 

On private health insurance, however, Ryan falls into the familiar trap of claiming that reducing the rebate for over 65s will shift costs onto public hospitals. This is unlikely for reasons outlined here. 

There has been some push back to the government’s changes to capital gains tax, negative gearing, and trusts, particularly from financial commentators. The idea that house prices might stop going up sounds great to those trying to buy a home of their own, but not if you’re hoping to continue making big capital gains from investment properties.

But one popular financial guru, the barefoot investor, has backed the changes in. In an article entitled You’ll hate this, he refutes three claims.

The first is that young people will be worse off. He points out that someone saving for a deposit with a $50,000 Aussie index fund would only be roughly $900 a year worse off and depending on future returns and inflation might actually be better off.

He describes the 47% silent partner memes as now just annoying. The vast majority of small businesses pay no capital gains tax at all because of other exemptions, that are not changing.

Finally, he points out that the changes to family trusts are really just closing a loophole that are used by those on high incomes to avoid paying tax. As he said “The system lets wealthy families with good accountants pay less tax than nurses and tradies. That doesn’t pass the pub test.”

He’s right about that.

Bill Browne

Earlier this year, the High Court found that there was an unconstitutional loophole in Victoria’s electoral laws.

The laws, passed by Labor and the Greens in 2018, restricted political donations but left gaping loopholes for political parties to take advantage of – as revealed in a 2023 research paper from The Australia Institute.  

The High Court was asked to address one specific loophole, but couldn’t change it in isolation. Instead, they struck out the state’s political finance laws in their entirety.

Today, the Allan Labor Government will introduce its proposed new political finance laws.

There are some positive measures:

• They are bringing back donation transparency, and making it retrospective.
• They have raised the donation cap, although only by a modest amount, to $7,500 over four years.
• They will later allow new candidates and parties to receive double the standard donation cap, “to get a foothold”.
• They are closing one loophole, the “nominated entity” loophole that allowed the major parties to get millions of dollars uncapped.

However, as with all political finance changes, the devil is in the detail. Some of the changes will only come in after the November election, and the new bill is not yet on the Bills in Parliament page for public analysis.

Extraordinarily, the Victorian Government has reportedly used their original laws being unconstitutional as an excuse to increase taxpayer funding of political parties even further.

There’s no reason to believe that established politicians need even more money from the taxpayer. 

Taxpayer funding for politicians and political parties was originally justified as reducing the need for private funding – but instead it has mostly increased alongside more private funding. The way taxpayer funding is implemented in Australia, it overwhelmingly favours incumbents at the expense of new entrants.

The Accountability Round Table has belled the cat, calling for the abolition of public funding saying:

Candidates should raise their funds from supporters rather than rely on taxpayer dollars, which only benefit incumbents and entrenched parties.

An alternative would be to distribute public money in a way that new entrants can benefit from as well, like the “democracy vouchers” used in the City of Seattle that put the power to distribute money into the hands of voters.

The Economics committee this morning is focussing on oil and gas and LNP Senator Susan Macdonald, who is very much a big fan of oil and gas companies, starts things off by wondering why we had a trade deficit in the March quarter “due to a fall in mining exports” She asks if this means we need “more mining” and if there is anything that needs to be done in policy. 

I mean cripes. 

The Departmental official says maybe not focus on one quarter 

She then suggests that “the resources sector pays the bills in the country” and that the Budget papers forecasting Mining investment of 0% in 2026-27 “this is a canary in the coal mine”.

IDK. 

The departmental official points out that is a growth figures not a total figure.

Susan Macdonald says this is shocking and means investment is going elsewhere and Australia is missing out. 

The departmental official says we are at historically high levels of mining investment and so it’s not a shock to see that not grow as fast as it had been. 

Macdonald then goes on about how a lot of mining resources is sitting in ports. I guess Macdonald has not heard about the Iran War and the issue that is having with supply chains.

There has been a fascinating discussion around the forthcoming reductions in the private health insurance (PHI) rebate for over 65s. 

Liberal Senator Anne Ruston – clearly angling for evidence that re-aligning the rebate with younger cohorts is bad – is asking about the ‘emotional value’ of holding cover for older Australians. Fair question, but there is of course no available data on this. 

Ruston then follows up with the obvious question about people dropping PHI putting pressure on the public hospital system.

In any case: perhaps the (inaccurate) scaremongering about the public system being overwhelmed may be counterproductive in making older Australians feel emotionally secure?

The red carpet is still being laid out for Matthew Wale – he now has received among the highest honours for a visiting dignitary – the inspection of the guard.

Mike Bowers was there:

As Amy has reported, economists attached to the major banks are not expecting much growth in the March quarter GDP figures. 

There’s no magic involved here. As I posted yesterday, essentially, we already have some good numbers on household spending, residential building, trade, private sector investment and government spending and investment. 

We can estimate just how much they will contribute to quarterly GDP growth:

If you then add them all together it gives you an estimate for what GDP growth will be. It’s not exact but it can give a sense of direction:

The overriding story is that the trade figures are going to cancel out a lot of growth in the domestic economy. This was due to a big increase in imports, and not a similar increase in exports.  

Looking the correlation between the two figures, the roughly 0% growth form the early estimate would suggest an actual GDP quarterly growth of 0.3%.

There’s a lot of margin of error there, so don’t be going and putting any money on that number, but I’ll just say I would be shocked if the March GDP is anywhere close to the December quarter growth of 0.7%

Another week, another integrity scandal from one of the Big Four consulting companies. This time, it’s KPMG where CEO Andrew Yates had to resign after whistleblower allegations were mishandled.

The allegations relate to “client documents being inappropriately shared internally”, including audit partners accessing the board papers of client Lendlease.

The prompt action can be explained by the fact that these were private clients – who actually stop hiring consulting firms when they are betrayed by them.

Meanwhile, it’s been six years since KPMG was caught providing dodgy, conflicted advice to the NSW Government, and governments just keep coming back for more. 

It’s the same story with PwC, which has been forgiven by the credulous Department of Finance for misusing confidential government information after an embarrassingly brief period out in the cold.

Incredibly, KPMG runs the Reserve Bank of Australia’s whistleblowing program.

As Labor Senator Deborah O’Neill told Capital Brief, that’s “untenable”. Senator O’Neill is the one who revealed the whistleblower’s claims of impropriety under the protection of parliamentary privilege.

The Reserve Bank is “reviewing” the arrangement, but the real question is why KPMG was running the whistleblower hotline for a government agency in the first place. It’s a powerful argument for a Whistleblower Protection Authority, within government and answerable to the parliament.  

The consulting firms trade off the aura of integrity created by their audit work, in order to sell their consulting services to government. The Reserve Bank had only to google “KPMG scandal” to realise that was a carefully crafted mirage.

The Employment Department estimates gets off to a feisty start because the legislation to deal with workplace relations “Building Cooperative Workplaces”  is being introduced today. Senator Jane Hume is annoyed because this goes to issue they were dealing with yesterday around Workplace Relations that was before the committee yesterday, not today. 

Hume points out the bill was released at 10.01pm last night, (ie a minute after the committee ended for the day). Given the topic also pertains to the complaints being made by one Fair Work Commissioners against the President of the FWC, Senator Hume thinks its all a bit fishy. 

The committee moves on to talking about the changes to Jobseeker that were announced by Amanda Rishworth last week at the national press club. 

Senator Hume is a bit worried that those in “Stream 3”, who are the unemployed furthest away from the labour market (either due to lack of skills, illness etc), will not have mutual obligations. This is because Rishworth suggested people in this stream might not have to apply for jobs (because it’s a bit pointless, given they lack skills and those are the things that need to be worked on first).

The Department officials say there will still be mutual obligations, just that they will be “better targeted’.

This is then followed up by Liberal Senator Matt O’Sullivan asking if the government is still committed to mutual obligations. Govt Senator Jess Walsh, who is representing Rishwort,h says the govt is and then rambles on for a while talking up fit for purpose “better targeted” etc etc. O’Sullivan continues by saying the LNP is very much in favour of mutual obligations but is worried that these changes are really ending mutual obligations and weirdly refers to the dropping of them during COVID and how it negatively affected people in indigenous communities and caused “social unrest” because “of a lack of engagement”.

This of course is completely spurious. The main reason mutual obligations were dropped during COVID is the same reason Jobseeker was doubled – the Morrison Government did not want people to realise just how shitty life is for those on Jobseeker. In the Morrison government’s view COVID meant the wrong type of people were being forced to be unemployed (ie “good working possible Liberal Party voters”). Mutual obligations have had a long history of mostly being about punishment and that’s why they were dropped because the government didn’t want to punish potential voters. 

AnthonyAlbanese and the Solomon Islands PM Matthew Wale will hold their leaders’ remarks in just a little bit. The big question is over whether or not the two islands enter into arrangements which will lock China further out of the region (which is Australia and the US’s goal).

When we say Australia is laying it on thick, we mean it – this is what greeted Wale as he walked through the Marble Hall today.

Bowers also caught Albanese meeting another Albanese

One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce has skipped out on parliament this morning to attend an anti-abortion rally outside the NSW parliament, which was organised by anti-abortion campaigner and right wing social media identity  Joanna Howe. (Howe was most recently in the news for trying to pass off sugar glider newborns as aborted ‘twins’)

Howe has been trying to get support for Libertarian MP John Ruddick’s bill which proposes to limit gender selective abortions. If that sounds odd to you, you are right on – it is not something which is happening at any level of concern in Australia.

The last time the NSW parliament looked at this was in 2020 and its report found:

A total of 15,973 terminations of pregnancy that occurred between 1 October 2019 and 30 September 2020 were notified to the NSW Ministry of Health. Of these, 13 notifications of termination of pregnancy (0.08 per cent or 8 per 10,000 of all notifications) indicated that they were for the sole purpose of sex selection.

Of the 13 notifications for the sole purpose of sex selection, 10 indicated that these were for pregnancies less than nine weeks gestation. As there is no reliable way of determining gender prior to 10 weeks gestation, it is suggested that these notifications were recorded and reported incorrectly. Note that the other three notifications indicated they were between 9 – 13 weeks gestation. The adjusted notification rate is therefore 0.02 per cent or 1.9 per 10,000 notifications.

Of the 13 notifications, nine were performed in non-hospital facilities (such as private healthcare provider clinics) and four in private hospitals.

So why would anyone want to ban something which isn’t actually a problem? Because it would be one step closer to being able to punish abortion healthcare providers, and therefore make it harder for any woman to access healthcare.

It is also part of the rightwing ideology to start controlling women again. You only need to look to the US to see how that is going.

Australians overwhelming support abortion health care access, but there isn’t a culture war in the world that conservatives won’t look to import into Australia. And with the rise of One Nation comes the creeping attempts to control women’s bodies – there are a lot of people invested in trying to leverage One Nation’s surge in support with slipping in their pet authoritarian projects.

Joyce spoke at the rally which AAP estimates had about 2,000 people attending and said:

Politically, does this make you popular? No, you’d probably lose half your votes every time you do it. But you know why you do it because that’s the right thing to do,” he said.

This was also the sort of rhetoric he used when stirring up anger against renewable projects, particularly wind farms.

Yesterday, Labor Senator Michelle Ananda-Rajah picked up on a remark (made in relation to another question) about dementia rates, asking why Indigenous Australians are is 3-4 times more likely to acquire dementia than the general population.  

Prof Michael Kidd, Australia’s Chief Medical Officer, cited evidence that conditions like hypertension and diabetes are known dementia risk factors. These conditions are much more prevalent among Indigenous populations, so the link with dementia is quite clear. Addressing these continues to be a major priority, according to Prof Kidd.

But the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians’ health is a wicked problem (and one that successive governments have struggled to move the needle on). 

It’s hard to tell people to eat better when a healthy food basket can cost double in remote communities than in metropolitan supermarkets, and when Indigenous adults are already 1.3 times as likely to have high blood pressure and 2.8 times as likely to report diabetes or high sugar levels

Nobody on the Committee or the assembled panel answering this question are Indigenous. If only there was a Parliamentary body comprising Indigenous community representatives that could advise politicians and public servants on these issues.

Penny Wong also won’t get into the Axios report of Donald Trump’s phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu which has gone around the globe.

Axios reported:

Behind the scenes: One U.S. official said Trump told Netanyahu that following through on his threats to bomb the Lebanese capital would further isolate Israel around the world. 

• Two of the sources said Trump claimed he’d helped keep Netanyahu out of jail — a reference to his support during Netanyahu’s corruption trial.
• Summarizing Trump’s remarks to Netanyahu, the U.S. official said: “You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.”
• A second source briefed on the call said Trump was “pissed” and at one point yelled at Netanyahu: “What the fuck are you doing?”

Wong:

I’m not going to comment on what President Trump said, other than to say it was significant and important that the US made clear its opposition to Mr. Netanyahu’s plans to bombard or to attack Beirut. We oppose Israel’s escalation in Lebanon. We’ve made our views about Prime Minister Netanyahu’s agenda quite clear. You saw that prior to the last election and he had some things to say about us. We have a clear view, in this circumstance, about the escalation which we do not support. We believe that the ceasefire from the beginning should have applied to Lebanon. You might recall we were the first country to call for that. And we continue to say, without the ceasefire applying to Lebanon, it is difficult to see how the broader ceasefire in the region can continue or be strengthened.

Penny Wong says she understands that “privately, individuals will have their views” (she means Ed Husic) about AUKUS but as a member of the cabinet government, she believes it “in the best interests of our country for this project to proceed”.

But Husic isn’t alone – he’s just among the bravest in saying these things publicly.

On the debate within the Labor party, Wong told ABC News Breakfast:

In terms of debates at party conference, we are the only political party that has an open debate in front of the media. The Greens political party have closed conferences and the Liberals similarly.

So, we are the only political party in this country that does open debates. And if we have a debate on it, what we would be saying is what I’ve said to you, we’ve had over a decade of governments changing course on submarines.

We have a clear project ahead of us, and that is to deliver a submarine capability for this country into this century. And it is a necessary capability, particularly in the current circumstances, because deterrence is about securing the peace. So, this is not an academic exercise, this is not a theoretical exercise, and this is not an exercise about any one administration or any one government. It is about a capability the country needs for decades to assure peace and stability in the region in which we live.

The People’s Inquiry into Free Speech on Palestine at Australian university campuses, which was supported by Greens senator Mehreen Faruqi has returned it’s final report.

 Bart Shteinman, Executive Officer of the Jewish Council of Australia was among those holding the inquiry and said:

The assault on free speech about Palestine has nothing to do with making Jews safer on campus. It is just the latest right-wing culture war directed at universities, their staff and students for daring to question the ideologies and policies favoured by politicians, media barons, and western-backed regimes like Israel. Increasingly, Jewish students and academics are refusing to allow their identities to be weaponised to shut down debate and marginalise Palestinians, and they are demanding that universities stop bending to the demands of the right-wing establishment and its pro-Israel bias.”

Some examples from the report include:

• A Jewish student was refused entry to a space created on campus as a safe space for Jewish students. When the university realised the student had been involved in pro-Palestine activism, the student was told that they had to be a member of the Australasian Union of Jewish Students to access the space, despite this never previously being a requirement (p88). 
• A first year Palestinian student spoke publicly about atrocities being committed against civilians in Gaza, including her own family. An investigation was initiated by the university after a complaint was made that her statements were untrue. She was given just days to prove that her claims were factual, that she had not acted to create division, and to comment on the statements in relation to the university’s bullying policy. She provided a long document with evidence supporting what she had said. The university did not respond for months. When it did, it was to inform her no further action would be taken (p52). 
• A general practitioner and academic was reprimanded by their university and told their comments could make students feel less safe in the classroom when they wrote a letter expressing concern about various hospital and university heads attending a conference hosting a delegation from a state being accused of genocide. The GP was called into a meeting where they were told that their letter had been sent around to various Zionist groups and told off on the basis that the comments could be damaging to the university’s reputation (p56). 
• Many academics described complaints, investigations and censorship of course content, especially in courses relating to justice and ethics, human rights, international law, apartheid, imperialism, and the history and geopolitics of the Middle East. One tutor was abruptly dismissed following him showing footage of the Israeli Defence Forces in Gaza during a class on state violence (p30). Another described being called into their Dean’s office and asked to respond to complaints that they were forbidden to see or know the source of (p70). 
• A student was emailed a complaint about “erecting a temporary structure on campus” for setting up a table for a bake sale to raise money for the family of a student in Gaza. This is one of countless examples of universities using bureaucratic red tape, absurd excuses, and obscure policies to hamper events relating to Palestine or Gaza. At this bake sale, university protective services took photos, approached students, and questioned if they had booked a space for the stall (a trestle table). Protective services employees then demanded that the bake sale be shut down (p21–22). 
• A student was disciplined for making others feel unsafe when she criticised the behaviour of a group who shouted “racially vilifying remarks.” This shouting group included a student who attempted to hit her with a pole, spat on a Muslim student, and made Islamophobic remarks towards them. The student with the pole, and the others in the group, were never disciplined (p90). 

Faruqi said it was on the Albanese government to act:

University campuses should be political spaces where students and staff are encouraged to speak out and stand against injustice, but instead universities have gone to extensive lengths to do the opposite and to shut down pro-Palestine activism and advocacy. 

The harsh measures to silence dissent are quite reprehensible when universities should be upholding academic freedom and free speech.

The courage and bravery of the staff and students who have contributed to this Inquiry and who continue to speak out are a beacon of hope in these dark times. 

If the Albanese Labor government and the higher education sector care about safe and inclusive universities that are free from racism, discrimination and suppression, they must act urgently on these recommendations.”

As Grogs was outlining yesterday, today is national accounts day, which is when we will find out how the economy is going. And there is an expected slow down, which makes sense – the world is on fire. And the RBA in Australia seems intent on proving to its market friends that it can do things like just keep increasing interest rates, and taking spending power away from mortgage holders and renters, and give that wealth to the banks, even as the economy slows. Now ‘RBA insiders’ are leaking to media including the SMH that things might slow down even more and house prices could *gasp* fall. I am sure everyone is going to be very serious and calm about that.

AAP has some GDP previews:

Fresh data is likely to show gross domestic product was still growing at a fairly rapid clip at the start of the year, but a slowdown is on the way.

Wednesday’s national accounts release is likely to be the last time annual growth has a two in front of it for some time, which could convince the central bank to hold off on more rate rises.

Economists at National Australia Bank expect the Australian Bureau of Statistics to show the economy grew by 0.3 in the March quarter, which would put the annual growth rate at 2.4 per cent.

In May, the Reserve Bank predicted GDP to rise by 2.6 per cent.

NAB’s forecast downgrade is largely the result of a sharp rise in imports, which resulted in Australia’s first trade deficit since December 2017.

Imports surged on the back of higher fuel prices and the AI boom, NAB chief economist Sally Auld said.

The data centre build-out, which drove a massive increase in business investment, is highly reliant on imported server racks, while increased use of AI software also fuelled a rise in service imports.

Dr Auld said Wednesday’s numbers were already “pretty historical”.

The RBA’s three rate hikes in 2026 and the flow-on effects of the Strait of Hormuz blockade will only be partially felt in the data, which covers January to March.

But it would provide a baseline for where the economy was before the Middle East conflict and the budget tax changes hit sentiment in the housing market, she said.

“Growth is clearly moderating, which would give the Reserve Bank confidence that they’re on track in terms of getting a better balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply,” Dr Auld told AAP.

Westpac has also pencilled in growth of 0.3 per cent, while ANZ expects a slightly sturdier rise of 0.5 per cent and Commonwealth Bank has forecast a flat outcome.

If predictions of a slowdown from 0.8 per cent in the December quarter are accurate, it augurs ill for the rest of the year.

While some analysts, including HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham, believe Australia is headed for at least one quarter of negative growth, Dr Auld said it was still too early to tell.

“It does feel like we’ve had quite a significant shift in housing policy as a consequence of what was announced in the budget, and that’s clearly had a sentiment effect on the housing market,” she said.

“The question we’re mulling over is how big is the correction in housing likely to be, and what that might mean for activity; not so much in the current quarter, but possibly in the back half of the year.

“Does that present some downside risks to the economy from an activity perspective that maybe weren’t there even just a month ago?” 

Morgan Stanley economists have predicted property values to fall between 5-10 per cent.

Prices sank 0.9 and 0.8 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne, respectively, in May, according to Cotality.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said any economic growth with a two in front of it would be welcome given the current circumstances.

“(It) would be a very welcome reminder that we confront this period of substantial global economic uncertainty and volatility from a position of genuine economic strength,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

Foreign minister Penny Wong is one of those doing the media rounds this morning. She has just spoken to ABC News Breakfast where she was asked about the government decision to sanction some Israeli settler groups (but not the Israeli government which offers settlers, who violently terrorise Palestinians and steal their homes, support and IOF protection):

We have a very clear position that Israeli settlements are an obstacle to peace and inconsistent with progress towards a two-state solution. You’re right, I have sanctioned in the last 24 hours three individuals and four entities for their actions in the West Bank, including unacceptable violence and activities in relation to Palestinians.

We have a consistent position. We support two states, and the reason is we see, as do so many others, no road to peace and stability in the Middle East, unless the issue of a Palestinian state is resolved, and there can be peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

Hello and welcome back to The Point Live!

It’s Wednesday of the second week, which means the MPs are going to be displaying signs of cabin fever. Should be great.

The Climate Council has released a report on the potential impact of data centres on the Australian grid, concluding that without some strong guide rails and intervention, the industry could lead to higher power prices for Australians:

• If data centre energy growth is matched with more gas, rather than renewables and storage, wholesale power prices will rise across Australia as high as 26% in NSW and 23% in Victoria by 2035.
• An impact on power bills is not inevitable. Matching new data centre load with additional, lower-cost renewables and storage would almost entirely avoid dumping extra costs onto households, other industries and businesses.
• Without intervention, data centre electricity demand will be met by more polluting coal and gas; delaying the retirement of ageing and unreliable coal stations and increasing reliance on expensive fossil gas. Our national electricity grid could be 14% more polluting than it otherwise would be in 2035.
• Developers of data centres, and their big tech customers, should fund approaches that lock in the benefits of our national switch to clean energy, avoid unnecessary price hikes and prevent further climate damage.  

Given the Labor party is all gas, gas, gas rah, rah, rah, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Meanwhile, following the news that Australia is now only going to get used Virginia Class submarines (maybe) instead of the original two in service and one new deal, and criticisms getting louder from within the Labor party (Ed Husic being one not afraid to publicly voice his thoughts) government ministers are spending the morning telling media everything is fine.

The government is very clear about why we need AUKUS. This is a capability Australia needs, and unfortunately, we had a capability gap in terms of our submarines because of what happened under the Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison governments, and we are determined to deliver that capability, so it is full steam ahead,” Penny Wong told the Nine network this morning.

So yeah, all totally fine.

We’ll cover all of that, as well as everything else that pops up in politics today. Ready? Coffee number three is getting me closer to yes.

Let’s jump in.