The Point Live: Final day of House sitting in the shadow of inflation, estimates continues. As it happens.

Greg Jericho

The Bureau of Statistics not only released the latest inflation figures, but also the latest numbers on reasons people were not working or looking for work.

Two of the biggest reasons are that they are retired so, working ain’t on the agenda, and the other is that they are studying (even though more people studying work now than in the past).

Once you exclude those reason – which are not really reasons that the government or even economists really would like to change (ok there are some who think you should work till you die and should be down the mines even when at school) – the big two reasons are “dunno” and “something”, or officially “Other reasons” and “not determined”

Seriously people – just answer the damn survey!

But once we get past those two “reasons” we see big differences.

For women the biggest reason not looking for paid work (as opposed to the actual work they are doing, work that keeps the economy going but is unpaid) is child care. 20% of women state that reason.

By contrast just 5% of men do.

For men the biggest reason is a lack of suitable work around.

Asked about whether or not independent senator Fatima Payman will receive any extra staff – and whether it is fair that the prime minister gets to decide how many staff non-government MPs receive, Anthony Albanese holds onto that grudge.

Payman has been very open and vocal about the impact on her and her staff, as an independent senator, in not having enough staff to do her job. Albanese says Payman has the same amount of staff she would have had as a Labor senator – which is pretty disingenuous because as a Labor senator, she would have had Labor help in general – the major parties have people who tell them what is happening, where it is happening, and all of that other admin that independents don’t get.

Leaving the Labor party was seen as a betrayal and Albanese is not one to forget these things. So, her view that this is a petty response to her leaving the party (which she did after Labor refused to acknowledge the Palestinian genocide) is not, not wrong.

Albanese:

Fatima Payman has the same numbers of staff now as she had when she was elected as a Labor senator. Indeed, one more, because we granted an additional staffer to all senators and all members of the House of Representatives

Q: Under a free trade agreement, you say that you are astonished at the opposition that’s being put forward here. The coalition’s criticism seems to be that a it’s a bad deal, and b that it somehow legitimises the existence of climate change, which the Nationals don’t seem to like. Could you address those criticisms? And do you think what’s your read on whether this issue is divisive within the Coalition, given the Liberals’ historic support for free trade?

Anthony Albanese:

Well, I note Alex Hawke’s comments in a Liberal Party meeting, where he questioned why it is that Matt Canavan is making determinations without any process in their party room or their shadow cabinet. It’s very clear that for people who say they belong to a political party that supports markets and supports free and fair trade, that will be completely undermined and shredded unless they support this legislation. When it comes to is it a fair deal? It is a fair deal.

When we had discussions, firstly with the European Union, we determined that it wasn’t good enough. After that, we went back to them and we got a better deal, and that is what this does.

For example, the sheep meat and beef meat exports, which have been subject of some criticism, respectively, will lead to four and eight times the amount of exports going into Europe, as currently occur, that’s a pretty big increase with a five-year review of that and the potential to increase it even further.

This is a good deal. It’s a good deal over things such as naming as well. Those issues that were dealt with, you know, whether you could name feta that was produced here, for example. It’s also a good deal for Australian consumers because cheaper imports put downward pressure on prices.

Trade is a good thing. I thought this was resolved in the 1980s under the Hawke and Keating governments, and that since then there was support across this Parliament and across the mainstream political parties. The parties of government agreed that trade was a good thing at a time where it is under challenge, where the U.S. government have implemented tariffs that have, that have increased inflation in the United States

That have been the subject, as we’ve been very clear about standing up for Australia’s national interests.

You know, when we gather with President Xi and President Trump at APEC in a month’s time, Australia wants to be the country that we’re for free and fair trade unequivocally. And when it comes to climate provisions, there’s nothing special about this. There’s a reference to the Paris Agreement, Paris Agreement that was signed up to by Tony Abbott, that was supported by the Coalition.

There are climate references in the UK FTA, in the US FTA, in the China FTA, as well.

So this is just an excuse for going down the road of protectionist and nativist politics.

Nativist politics is not in Australia’s national interest. We are a trading nation. We are an island continent in which economic growth and productivity is boosted by engaging with the world.

Half the cabinet seems to be at this press conference, so this is what we call an attempt to ‘re-take the narrative’.

So we have resources minister Madeleine King talking about the gas reserve policy (honestly, just do the gas tax already), industry minister Tim Ayres talking gas reserve policy and Chris Bowen talking gas reserve policy.

The gas reserve legislation will pass the parliament today, but then it is off to the senate where it’s up to the negotiations.

Bowen:

When the gas reservation bill passes the House of Representatives today, it’ll be a good day for Australia. About 20 years overdue, it will be a day in which Australian gas under Australian soil and Australian water is reserved for Australian use. This is fundamental reform, which will put Australian industry on a better competitive foot, and will ensure that the gas which belongs to all Australians is used by Australians first and foremost. Australia is the last country with a gas industry in the world without an effective reservation policy. That’ll be fixed under the Albanese government. It’ll pass the House of Representatives today. We call on all parties to pass it through the Senate because it’s what Australia needs.

Well if that is the measure, Australia should also be seriously considering properly taxing its resources then too, huh?

He then moves on to the European Free Trade deal – the Coalition are against it because of the climate clause, which they don’t agree with, and want Australia excluded from having to meet the EU’s standards.

Which is…backwards to say the least. That’s not a comment on whether or not the trade deal is good, but it is showing how Australia is already an outlier on how most of the rest of the world deals with climate – it is not a left/right issue for most nations, but an economic and rational one.

This needs to be passed, and I find it astonishing that at a time where free and fair trade is under threat around the world, where that’s a big debate in global politics and in the global economy, that this somehow is being questioned here in Australia. This is very much in our national interest to engage internationally, and that’s one of the reasons why I’m going to CHOGM (Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting) next week at the invitation of His Majesty King Charles.

The prime minister is holding a press conference, opening with the digital duty of care bill and urging its passage through the senate.

It is ital that this get the support of the Senate. It does two things essentially. The first is it makes big tech accountable, just as the media organisations represented here are accountable for what’s on their platforms. They should be held to account for the role that they play and what appears in their platforms, and which therefore then gets circulated right around Australia.

Second thing that it does, which is related, which is rather than international base. companies are determining through algorithms what Australians receive, it empowers people themselves to determine what you receive on your devices, so that you should have that control. This isn’t about government having a greater role; it’s about people having a greater role, having more control themselves, and it’s deserving of support of this parliament. Following the ban which we put in place for under-16s on social media accounts, this is again Australia leading the world, and the truth is that these new technologies are having a major impact on our economy, on the way that we work, but more importantly, just on society. And it’s important that society, through Parliament, have a legitimate role in debate in what impact do we want this to have on the way that society functions, and that’s what this legislation is about.

Q: You’re wanting to walk back government spending, but with the experience we’ve had with the Middle East and trade disruption, would a coalition government need to be forking out money to invest and prop up some of the industries which may be under threat from global disruption?

Hastie:

Well, the government’s already doing that. We’re seeing bailouts across the board, whether it’s Tomago or Waiala, well, I believe in sovereign capability, and I believe the government should have a role where market can’t deliver the outcomes that we need, which is why we invest in in critical capabilities like smelting, for example.

But what we have to do is get spending under control, and that’s why this week we identified 31 billion dollars worth of savings, which will pay for our tax cuts*.

In the first year, average Australian will get 500 bucks. Second year, 750. Third year, about $1,000. Over 10 years, 14 $1,000 back. They’ll be better off. So, but we’ll also have about 22 billion dollars left over from that as well. So, we are identifying where the saves are. We’re going to dismantle Labor’s climate bureaucracy.

We’re going to bring in more revenue by fixing the illicit tobacco trade in this country.** There’s a range of areas that we’re going to focus on.

*That’s in things like climate, housing and welfare by the way – all things which will end up costing you more money and that’s even before the RBA decides the tax cuts are inflationary and raises interest rates to balance out the scales.

**That is not going to raise anywhere near the money they are claiming, based on how these markets work.

Andrew Hastie has been put forward by the Coalition, so let’s see what he has to say – Hastie is keen to expand his appearances beyond being the only Coalition MP to openly call out One Nation and is doing more and more policy responses.

Q: How concerned are you about the prospect of another interest rate rise next week?

Hastie:

I think Australians should be very concerned. We are looking down the barrel of a 17th interest rate rise under this government.Bond yields are above 5%, the 10-year bond yield, and the spending is out of control. We’ve hit a trillion dollars of debt*, and there’s no sign that this government is going to kick its spending habit. And the Australian people are the ones who pay with higher prices across the board, but also in mortgage repayments, it’s costing an extra $30,000 for the average family with a mortgage these these days to to pay it down per year.

*More than half of that debt was left by the Coalition. Also, it doesn’t matter – Australia has a comparatively low debt to GDP ratio (one of the lowest in the OECD) and has maintained AAA credit ratings, so the cost of servicing it hasn’t increased, but if we are going to talk about these numbers they need to be in context.

Q: Labor MP Ed Husic yesterday suggested the government should consider price caps on basic grocery items to help Australians with cost of living. Is that doable?

Hastie:

Look, that’s very interventionist**. I think the the best thing that we can do is cut spending in in from the government. We ask families and businesses across the country to manage their own finances. It’s now time for the government to manage its finances, and if we do that, we can get inflation under control. We can balance the books, and return this country to prosperity because our living standards are dropping. Inflation is a silent tax that is eating away at people’s wealth. We have bracket creep. That’s why we’re introducing our tax plan, which gives people more of their money back, defeating Albanese’s bracket creep***.

**The Nationals wanted to break up the supermarket monopoly not that long ago. The Coalition also wanted to break up energy companies (remember the ‘big stick’) so you know, potatoes, pahtadoes

***It’s not Albanese’s bracket creep and also, the RBA would see it as inflationary in this environment, and also even John Howard had to scrap this plan in the Fraser government because of how much money it would cost, even then.

Q: Energy Minister Chris Bowen said in question time yesterday that he government is talking to industry about how to ensure Australian taxpayers can share and increase profits made by Australian oil refineries during periods of high fuel prices. Is this an idea that the coalition supports?

Hastie:

Well, we have our own plan through the Future Generation Fund, where we’ll set aside 80% of all windfall profits from oil and gas sector* and put it into a fund and use it to pay down the debt, but also on nation-building projects. We need more roads, we need more ports, we need more power plants, we need a whole range of things that will support the economy and, particularly in the power space, deliver cheaper energy for Australian families.

****This only works if those windfall profits happen in Australia, which, looking at history, they somehow never do.

Q: Let’s talk about the credit card ban on paying tax. Commissioner of Taxation Rob Heffernan was in front of estimates yesterday. Said the ATO could have consulted small businesses in a more extensive way before announcing this ban. What do you make of that?

Hastie:

Yeah, I think that’s admission that the government didn’t do its due diligence and that small business once again is paying. Small business is really doing it tough. We’ve had record insolvencies over the last four years*****, and they depend upon credit cards for for cash flow. So the ATO should have done a better job, but ultimately the ATO is responsible to the government of the day, and that’s the Albanese government.

*****Also record numbers of businesses starting.

Q: Labor MP Josh Burns says the government needs to do everything it can to bring down inflation. Is there a sense amongst your caucus colleagues that blaming the Middle East conflict is not enough, and the government needs to get on with some drastic measures to get the economy back on track?

Daniel Mulino:

So we’re not blaming foreign situations and leaving it at that. I think it’s important context to acknowledge that there are inflationary impulses coming internationally. But as I pointed to, we need to continue to strengthen our fiscal position. We’ve done that across a number of budgets, and we’ll continue to. And we need to continue with productivity reforms. So it is taking actions on those two fronts that is important when it comes to dealing with inflation.

The other advantage to having the assistant minister out there talking and not the treasurer, is there is enough of a gap between responsibilities where the assistant minister can say the lines, but not actually have to answer beyond them because well, they are only the assistant minister, not the decision maker.

Just something to keep in mind.

Q: So do interest rates need to go up to the extent that unemployment rises to cool the economy a bit further?

Daniel Mulino:

Well, so what we’re doing as a government is to continue to find savings. We’ve found something in the order of 180 billion in savings over the last four budgets. Two surpluses plus in the last budget, really, really significant savings, over 60 billion in savings and reprioritizations. So that that’s really important. We’re also leaning in when it comes to the productivity challenge. That is also key here. We need to lift the speed rate of the economy.

Q: We haven’t seen a significant jump in productivity, have we?

Mulino:

No. And so when you look at productivity, we’ve got a number of major initiatives we’ve already delivered, including passing the EPBC Act, including freezing the National Construction code, a bunch of measures in my portfolio, but also, as identified in the budget, something in the order of $13 billion a year added to economic growth through a range of national markets and we’re not seeing the positive measures shift in a favorable direction. Generally, productivity improvements do take a bit of a lag to come through, and we saw this, for example, in the Hawke Keating years. For example, you pass the EPBC Act, it takes a bit of time to implement, and then the improved decision making does take time to flow through.

Q: But the Treasury analysis in the budget points to improved economic outcomes. Should Australians brace for another interest rate hike next week? Do you think it’s likely?

Mulino:

So I’m not going to try and second guess what the RBA is going to do in future meetings, but what I can look look to is the fact that the the inflation result that we saw last in the last few days is primarily a result of international factors that the government will continue to undertake responsible fiscal management while at the same time having targeted cost of living support. We’ve managed to balance those two objectives over the last four budgets and eight economic statements in total.

Q: When we’re looking at some of the factors that are at play at the moment, you can’t control the war in the Middle East, but you can control spending. Why not pull harder if you can pull back spending?

Mulino:

Well, so I think what’s been achieved has been very significant, and as I touched on, if you look at the last four years, there’s been an accumulated saving of 180 billion dollars. The fiscal position is significantly better than the trajectory that we inherited. Debt is around 198 billion dollars less, which means around 70 billion less in interest payments over the medium term, over the coming decade, so the accumulated impact of what we’ve been doing, budget after budget, has been significant. The last budget, in particular, had very significant savings. They weren’t easy decisions; they were necessary. And in fact, what we find in the current political discourse is that we have an opposition who points to the need for more savings. But then, when savings actually come into the parliament, they opportunistically and cynically oppose them.

Well that last point depends on the group and how much power they hold in society doesn’t it. Because the NDIS cuts went through, but changes to veterans health caps and private health subsidies for over 65s have had huge amount of political pushback. And that isn’t a bad thing, but it does tell you who has power and who doesn’t. The NDIS cuts were framed by almost everyone in the political and media classes as ‘rational’ but the other debates have been driven by emotion.

Daniel Mulino is growing his profile – he has been out and about a lot for an assistant minister in the last couple of months, and is seen by the Labor party as one of the anointed ones for future leadership.

So it’s not surprising to hear him on ABC radio RN Breakfast again this morning, talking inflation. It’s also part of a strategy to spread things out a little so Jim Chalmers isn’t solely blamed as the consistent face of inflation (even as treasurer, he would be, because most people don’t know who politicians are because they have lives).

Q: Why is the government unable to get inflation down?

Mulino:

So, what we saw in the figures released earlier this week is that the conflict in Iran is lasting longer and is more severe than had been forecast, and that means that global energy prices are higher than had been expected a few months ago. We’re seeing higher inflation than expected right across the advanced economy world, so Australia is not immune from that.

You look at automotive fuel prices having gone up over 9% in the last quarter and over 23% over the last year, so that’s the primary driver. If you go back to the RBA’s most recent monetary policy statement, they talked about energy prices and also some technology prices being higher than expected because of the AI rollout again globally.

So there are some global factors at play here, which obviously Australia has to navigate. The government’s going to continue its very responsible fiscal management as we have over the last four budgets, and that will play an important role in putting downward pressure.

Q: When we’re looking at other OECD nations and comparable nations, they’re dealing with some of those global factors as well, but they’re having more success for bringing inflation down. Why are we not with them?

Mulino:

There’s a range of outcomes across the advanced economy world. I think if you look at other countries, it’s important to compare holistically. A lot of other economies have not been anywhere near as successful as Australia in terms of their labor market outcomes. We’ve managed to navigate this global economic inflationary impulse with very strong employment growth, around 1.3 million jobs created during the course of the government. We have unemployment higher than we would like, but it’s it’s low in comparison to a lot of other economies.

That last point is important and overlooked a lot in this discussion. Australia does not have the unemployment rates of a lot of these nations (which seems to annoy the RBA) and keeping people employed in this sort of situation is not usually a central bank’s focus – but it certainly is a human one.

URDA (Via AAP)

A high-speed train has slammed into the rear of another train that had stopped, derailing two cars and killing at least 68 people in central Spain, authorities say.

Rescue workers were scouring wreckage for more bodies at the crash scene on Wednesday in the province of Toledo.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said “all of Spain” was in mourning after the crash, which Transport Minister Oscar Puente said happened after ‌a Renfe service was authorised to proceed despite an active red signal due to a stationary train ahead.

Puente told reporters in Madrid that the red signal was issued due to a computer communications failure, which automatically stopped traffic, but an erroneous decision was then ‌taken to restart the Renfe train.

At the scene in rural Castilla-La Mancha, ambulances, funeral home vans and helicopters assembled beside one of the trains on an elevated ‌stretch of track while twisted ‌metal and wreckage lay scattered down an ⁠embankment where at least three carriages had plunged.

The head of the regional government Emiliano García-Page said the death toll had risen to 68 while rescuers searching for other ​victims as darkness fell did not know if other fatalities would be discovered once the carriages were moved.

Passengers removed from the train streamed along a road near the scene, some splattered with blood or with their wounds bandaged, others wheeling suitcases and being given water by volunteers who said it had been donated from neighbouring towns.

Miguel, a passenger travelling with several colleagues in the rear car of one of the trains, described to COPE radio the moment of the accident.

“We heard ⁠a massive roar, a truly enormous thud that went ‌on for ​10 seconds, as if the train were about to derail. Through the right-hand window, we could see ​a wrecked train,” ‌he said.

The disaster, the deadliest train accident in Europe since a 2013 derailment in Spain’s Santiago de Compostela in which 80 people died, follows another fatal accident in January involving high-speed trains operated by the same companies on the same line, in which 46 ⁠people died.

Renfe said on ‌Wednesday that after being authorised ​to continue its journey, its train had crashed into the Iryo train that had remained stationary “for reasons we don’t know”.

“The Renfe train continued on its way as instructed, and a collision occurred. The exact sequence of events, the traffic conditions and the circumstances ​of the impact ‌will have to be established by the investigation,” Renfe said in a statement.

Iryo, which said it had activated emergency protocols, and state-owned infrastructure operator Adif did not respond to requests for comment.

A Castilla-La Mancha government spokesperson said ​147 people, including a baby, were on board the Iryo train and 397 on the Renfe service when the crash occurred about 9am, derailing two Iryo carriages.

Passenger Rafael Barcelo said he felt lucky as he had stepped away from his seat for a coffee, adding there had been at least eight victims from his carriage.

“We were having breakfast, drinking a coffee when we felt a very strong impact and we were sent flying,” he said.

Renfe said it had opened a special line for families of victims. 

The railway operator said it had suspended ticket sales on the Madrid-Andalusia high-speed corridor until December 13.

Spanish Health Minister Monica García said emergency workers were focusing on rescuing survivors and bodies from the two most damaged train cars.

The crash, which occurred in a flat stretch surrounded by olive fields in between the towns of Urda and Los Yebenes, left one car shredded into bits of metal and other material, scattering debris down a gravel slope.

The accident was between two high-speed trains heading in the same direction from the capital Madrid to Seville in southwestern Spain, according to Esther Padilla, spokeswoman for the Castilla La Mancha region.

with AP

Skye Predavec



Yesterday afternoon, as Greens leader David Shoebridge asked the Foreign Minister about Australia’s sanctions on the Myanmar Government during their ongoing civil war, Penny Wong took the opportunity for a jab over the Greens’ policy on Ukraine.

Wong accused the Greens of being “pro-Russia”, while Shoebridge labelled the attack “shameless” in the content of the government’s refusal to adopt EU-style sanctions to prevent 2.6 million tonnes of Russian-origin oil since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Wong: “I would also note that one of Myanmar’s biggest arms suppliers is Russia Senator Shoebridge.”

Shoebridge: “Well indeed, so we should stop giving money to Russia by buying Russian oil.”

Wong: “You know I’m really very happy to have a discussion with you on Russia-Ukraine after your unilateral upturning of Greens policy to abandon Ukraine”

Shoebridge: “You can falsely make those positions, you’re a foreign minister, you’re meant to make your statements based on evidence, that statement is false and misleading – it undermines my confidence in any of the answers you give …”

Hello and welcome to the final The Point Live for this sitting.

It’s mostly about what has happened outside of the parliament, with inflation continuing to chase the government around like my cat with a sunbeam.

The September figures all but set in stone another rate rise by the RBA next week. Not because you or I are spending (in this economy?!) but because oil prices are fuelling inflation. Oh – and AI data centres. Huzzah!

So it’s all a bit of a mess and we will be made to pay for it.

We’re going to jump right in today, so grab your coffee – I am on coffee number three. We are almost through it, so brace yourself for one last question time. I believe in us.

Ready?