AAP
Choked fertiliser supply chains teamed with an El Nino event could trigger food shortages and instability in the Indo-Pacific region, former national security leaders are warning.
The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group say there’s a plausible case for regional food shortages emerging over the next 12 months.
”This dire combination of a strong El Nino and the fertiliser crisis will have a significant impact on food production, and may lead to shortages, higher prices, panic buying and perhaps social unrest and conflict in the Indo-Pacific,” said retired colonel Neil Greet, a former Australian Army officer.
The alliance fears Australia is not well-prepared for compounding climate and geopolitical risks threatening its neighbours and security partners, nor exacerbated cost-of-living pressures at home.
Australia’s climate is driven by more than just the El Nino-Southern Oscillation patterns that cycles in the Pacific Ocean periodically, though the recently confirmed El Nino event has historically brought less rain and warmer temperatures to the southeast.
The cyclical warming in the east Pacific Ocean is also associated with weaker monsoon rains in India, drought in Brazil and Colombia, more rain in southern parts of the United States, and coral loss in parts of the world, potentially weighing on fish stocks.
El Nino is also occurring on a background of higher global temperatures caused by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The war on Iran further complicates the outlook, the former defence chiefs says, with roughly a third of the raw materials used for global fertiliser production needing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher fuel and fertiliser costs had been weighing on agriculture margins globally, prompting many farmers to scale back plantings including in Australia, RaboResearch Australia and New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel said.
He was not expecting a sharp global reduction in staple foods due to the Middle East conflict, however.
Market creativity to keep fertiliser supply chains moving, as well as price increases favouring the planting schedules of countries north of the equator, had helped soften the blow, Mr Vogel told AAP.
An El Nino was associated with drier conditions in Southeast Asia but the agricultural analyst said its influence on cropping was hard to predict given warm and dry weather can aid some phases of the growing cycle.
However, Mr Vogel said India – a big producer of wheat, rice and pulses – was already experiencing a delayed monsoon, and lower crop yields were possible without a recovery in rainfall conditions.
The report from former security leaders recommended Australia bolster regional food security programs and improve climate threat intelligence.
The group have been critical of the federal government’s failure to release a declassified version of a Office of National Intelligence assessment of the climate security risks.
The UK has released a similar redacted intelligence report warning declining global ecosystems could push more people into poverty and food insecurity, potentially fuelling higher migration rates, political polarisation and economic insecurity.
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Dan
Thu, 02.07.26
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Shannon
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14.11 AEST
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Gregory Shearman
Thu, 02.07.26
11.38 AEST
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Cath
Thu, 02.07.26
11.20 AEST
Matt Canavan fronts anti-gun law push Nationals leader Matt Canavan is leading the anti-gun law charge, doing the whole 'guns don't kill people, people kill people' He is claiming (and backing)... The Point Live
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Chris G
Thu, 02.07.26
12.47 AEST
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Sam
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11.08 AEST
Not so super for young people Anna Chang Just a quick update from yesterday, worth mentioning: the Government and Coalition managed to kybosh the Greens' disallowance motion on part of the... The Point Live
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Sam
Thu, 02.07.26
10.56 AEST
Matt Canavan fronts anti-gun law push Nationals leader Matt Canavan is leading the anti-gun law charge, doing the whole 'guns don't kill people, people kill people' He is claiming (and backing)... The Point Live
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Gregory Shearman
Thu, 02.07.26
10.46 AEST
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Gregory Shearman
Thu, 02.07.26
10.31 AEST
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Angelika
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Good morning! Hello and welcome to the final sitting day ahead of the winter break. Thank goodness. Even for Auspol this has dragged on. There isn't a... The Point Live
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Richard
Thu, 02.07.26
12.35 AEST
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Sam
Thu, 02.07.26
08.26 AEST
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Gregory Shearman
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Andrew Faith
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Join the conversation
Has Pat Conroy never heard of "ping pong diplomacy"? Fifty years before NRL diplomacy raised its head.
Was just enquiring with AGL about the three hour free electricity scheme in the middle of the day that came into effect yesterday that Chris Bowen keeps promoting. I was just told I would have to come off our account with our concessions and go on a normal acount with normal rates before being eligible. Sounds like this scheme isn’t what it is cracked up to be.
Yes Mr Canavan, guns don't kill people, people kill people.... faster and easier when they do it with a gun.
Does Mr Canavan really want to live in a country where mass shootings become so commonplace that school children are taught in schools what to do when one happens? May I suggest that he go move to the USA and give us all a rest?
At least it's a change from his constant spruiking of coal.
Guns make it much easier to kill people than not having a gun.
It looks like toomanyguns.org is not working at the moment, the last time I checked I was shocked at how many legal guns are in my small suburban suburb. Why do suburban homes need any guns?
perhaps if we made bullets for all these gun only able to be bought through the police and at a large cost then most of these guns would be useless and authorities would have track of who has bullets. After ll its the bullets that kill. No doubt however like drugs and cigarettes they will be got illegally.
Why would Labor do this? It's not like someone is in the office manually writing out cheques
This imported American nonsense. It's much easier to kill people, and a lot of them, with a gun than without a gun
Pat Conroy (Defence Industry Minister): "I’m open about that. This is being about being transparent with the Australian public"
When have you ever been transparent, Minister? Ask Former Senator, Veteran and former Submariner how "transparent" the defence industry is. We cannot even find out where the nuclear waste from the second hand submarines will be dumped.
Transparency... pffftt. We don't need to build missiles. We especially don't need to build weapons to be sold to a country committing war crimes and genocide. We need to build public housing, hospitals, public transport and renewable energy systems. If Conroy is looking at a return on investment then investing in Australian people will provide a far greater return. Spend less money on "defence" and more money in our region, making real friends. A region full of friends and partners is a safe region.
Anne Aly, When I go to watch my wonderful Knights Rugby League team at our home stadium there is gambling advertising on a banner all around the ground, the players have gambling company advertising all over their jerseys, as do the fans... including children. Imagine that... a little kid walking around with gambling advertising on their back.
Nothing wrong with a "flutter" between friends... money goes around and comes around. There's something very wrong about foreign gambling companies bleeding money from Australian gambling losers... in the billions every year.
Most Australians want an end to gambling advertising in the media. Why don't you? Have you been captured by the gambling lobby?
Morning Amy & Team
A tad late in joining you this morning, but am just catching up.
Have to say this particular snippet has left me absolutely disgusted... didn't think Angus Taylor could sink any lower.... but it seems I was mistaken:
"Angus Taylor’s speech was one of the worst parts of the night we are told, with one ‘joke’ about there not being a red carpet at the ball because Tony Burke had laid it out for the “ISIS brides”."
Thanks for the updates on all things #auspol
By now, it is a wonder that Angus Taylor can stand for anything, he has shot himself in the feet so often.
Is dumber than a bent brick - and I have the official Australian Standard Bent Brick to prove it!
"Take the temperature down" almost always means, "Brown people should shut up and let the White people have a big tantrum"
"Taking the temperature down" means "Stop marching in support of the Palestinian people."
I'm having a fasting blood test this morning. Apparently, it will be more interesting than "good one, Angus'" speech, I'm told.