The Point Live: Liberals congratulate Trump and Netanyahu, Angus congratulates himself on his first Parliamentary day as opposition leader, Hanson censured again.

What an extraordinary day in politics, globally and locally.

I don’t make the WWIII reference in the headline flippantly.

After watching images of bombs hitting schools and hotels last night, it feels like you could go to sleep and wake up to a very different world.

We can only hope things get better rather than worse – and quickly.

Locally, it was quite extraordinary to note that the new-look opposition wasn’t nimble enough to ask questions about Iran today. Instead, we saw another day straight out of the Dutton-Ley playbook: pick a subject (which was newsworthy a few days ago) and ask about it half a dozen different ways.

So, it’s not a new Angus Taylor, it’s just the same battler in a different seat, getting slaughtered by Jim Chalmers, Tony Burke and, well, himself.

Pauline Hanson was, unfortunately, just being Pauline Hanson today. Slogans, stunts and lacking any real substance. It’s like the polls have gone to her head. Someone should tell her Newspolls only mean something when you’re in opposition and lose a few dozen in a row.

Thanks for turning in. Sorry you got me instead of Amy. Thankfully, I still have the same team providing the same brilliant analysis which I look forward to sharing tomorrow.

Catch you then.

Last Saturday night was Sydney’s 48th Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras, an annual pride parade that began in 1978 when police violently broke up a protest party on Oxford Street.

Over almost five decades, Mardi Gras has gradually deemphasised the ‘protest’ part of ‘protest party’. As the latest step in that shift, Mardi Gras’ CEO Jesse Matheson took the unusual step of barring Pride in Protest from marching in the parade at the last minute. Pride in Protest is a queer activist collective whose members make up a quarter of the organisation’s board. Matheson said was in response to social media posts criticising Jewish group Dayenu.

Pride in Protest labelled the ban an “unprecedented overreach” and “authoritarian censorship”.

It follows a series of controversies for the Mardi Gras board, including the cancellation of the post-parade party, the censure of two of its own members, and the board’s decision to throw out motions passed at the organisation’s AGM, including “Embrace Trans Rights, Not Trump”, which sought to ensure parade participants gave explicit support for the transgender community.

In its censure motion, the board misgendered board member Luna Choo, a transgender woman. Though the board later apologised, the incident prompted accusations of transphobia and drew wider attention to Mardi Gras’ internal conflicts. NSW Liberal MP Chris Rath called for the State Government’s funding for Mardi Gras to be reviewed, accusing the organisation of being “hijacked by left-wing extremists”.

Though the NSW Government rejected the call to defund the parade, the funding threat drew comparisons to the South Australian Government’s disastrous intervention into the Adelaide Writers’ Festival – and cast a shadow over the decision to bar the Pride in Protest, a pro-Palestine group, from marching.

APRA lending data shows massive growth in investor demand for housing. While owner-occupiers have seen modest growth in recent years, investor growth in housing credit is increasing rapidly.

This all highlights why we need to reform the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing. These tax concessions are encouraging investors to flock into the market, outbid owner-occupiers and push up house prices.

But the rapid growth in investor demand is also concerning because it is reaching levels not seen since 2015, when APRA had to last intervene because of concern it was creating financial instability.

Worried about lending to risky speculators, APRA, the financial regulator, used its powers to force banks to limit lending to investors.

And it worked. As the graph shows, growth in investor housing credit fell rapidly in 2015.

But it was not just credit growth that dropped off, house prices also eased. House prices dropped modestly during this period. It is one of the few times over the last 25 years that housing became more affordable.

APRA could act again but a better long-term solution is to take away the tax concessions encouraging people to speculate. Scrapping the capital gains tax discount will reduce investor demand for housing, making way for first home buyers to buy a home of their own.

Mike Bowers captured the latest stunt by Pauline Hanson, slapping herself and storming out of the Senate chamber after being censured for her recent racist remarks.

Liberals Paul Scarr and Andrew McLachlan crossed the floor to support the censure, which the coalition opposed.

It was passed 36-17.

Independent Senator for the ACT, David Pocock, is heaping pressure on the gas industry.

He will introduce a motion to the Senate, moving:

1. That a select committee, to be known as the Select Committee on Why Gas Companies Pay Less for offshore Liquefied Natural Gas than Australians Pay in Beer Excise, be established to inquire into and report on:

a. The amount of Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) paid on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG);

b. Reasons for the low revenue generatedby PRRT paid on LNG;

c. Policies other jurisdictions such as Norway and Qatar have in place that has resulted in much higher revenue being generated through the sale of gas and oil in those jurisdictions;

d. The proposal from the Australian Council of Trade Unions for 25% tax on gas export revenue;

e. The impact on Australian businesses and households of the increase in gas prices since 2016;

f. What could be done with the additional revenue generated by effectively taxing the offshore LNG industry; and

g. Any other related matters.

2. That the committee present its final report by 11 May 2026.

3. That the committee consist of 6 senators, as follows:

a. Two nominated by the Leader of the Government in the Senate;

b. Two nominated by the Leader of the Opposition in the Senate;

c. One crossbench senator; and

d. Senator David Pocock.

4. That:

a. Participating members may be appointed to the committee on the nomination of the Leader of the Government in the Senate, the Leader of the Opposition in the Senate or any minority party or endependent senator;

b. Participating members may participate in hearings of evidence and deliberations of the committee, and have all the rights of members of the committee, but may not vote on any questions before the committee; and
c. A participating member shall be taken to be a member of a committee for the purpose of forming a quorum of the committee if a majority of members of the committee is not present.

5. That the committee may proceed to the dispatch of business notwithstanding that all members have not been duly nominated and appointed and notwithstanding any vacancy.

6. That Senator David Pocock chair the committee, and the committee elect as deputy chair a member nominated by the Leader of the Government in the Senate.

7. That the deputy chair shall act as chair when the chair is absent from a meeting of the committee or the position of chair is temporarily vacant.

8. That the chair, or the deputy chair when acting as chair, may appoint another member of the committee to act as chair during the temporary absence of both the chair and deputy chair at a meeting of the committee.

9. That, in the event of an equally divided vote, the chair, or the deputy chair when acting as chair, have a casting vote.

10. That the committee have power to send for and examine persons and documents, to move from place to place, to sit in public or in private, notwithstanding any prorogation of the Parliament or dissolution of the House of Representatives, and have leave to report from time to time its proceedings and the evidence taken and such interim recommendations as it may deem fit.

11. That the committee be provided with all necessary staff, facilities and resources and be empowered to appoint persons with specialist knowledge for the purposes of the committee with the approval of the President.

12. That the committee be empowered to print from day to day such papers and evidence as may be ordered by it, and a daily Hansard be published of such proceedings as take place in public.

Pauline Hanson screams “this is a stunt” after her latest Senate censure.

She claims the major parties “can’t stand that One Nation is at 26, 27 percent” in the polls.

Getting ahead of yourself much, Pauline?

I guess that means she won’t apologise for the pain she has inflicted on Australia’s Muslim community with her latest display of racism and ignorance.

“You’re all so gutless” she declares before dramatically slapping herself and storming out.

Did someone say “stunt”?

Foreign Minister Penny Wong is on her feet in the Senate, moving a censure motion against Pauline Hanson for her comments about Muslims.

President, I rise to move that the Senate censure Pauline Hanson for her statement that distressed and offended not only Muslim Australians. In the past fortnight, public debate in Australia has focused on the comments. Parents across the country have been asked by their children what they meant – whether their classmates believe the comments? Whether their country believes them? Whether they are safe? Last week, a man was arrested alleged to have been planning to attack the Muslim community and mosques, as well as West Australian police and the Parliament. These are the real world consequences of reckless, divisive political stunts that fan the flames of bigotry.

Speaker Milton Dick whacks Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson for a typically ridiculous point of order:

The member for Goldstein knows simply can’t get up here and say what you would like. That wasn’t a point of order. There are forms of the house as he well knows, if thinks he has been misrepresented he may take that. If he does that again, that is an absolute abuse of the standing orders. Everyone saw that. That is not acceptable. That is the first day back for I am asking everyone to step up their behaviour and just follow the rules of the house. The member for Goldstein is warned.

Naturally, it comes from the crossbench.

Andrew Wilkie, Member for Clark, to the fisheries minister:

Last year I wrote to you about the ecological and human risks of any emergency approval for florfenicol for salmon. Since then the antibiotics have been detected in marine life up to 10km from the fish pens. What penalties will be imposed for this dangerous contamination or will the government let the salmon companies off the hook again angling for votes in Tasmania?

Julie Collins, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry:

As the member would be aware, the APVMA (Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority) is an independent body and is responsible for the decisions the emergency listing and use of that in Tasmanian waters. It is the Tasmanian responsibility to manage waterways and the Tasmanian government are responsible for the management of its waterways. The APVMA has made a call that they may remove the emergency listing and it is basing that decision on new available evidence and science as it made its original decision and I remind him it is an independent statutory authority.

Andrew Hastie is up again … hang on … he’s going to ask about Iran …

Given the war in the Middle East and suspension of air travel following the air strikes on Iran, has the government …

Of course he’s not.

… halted its plan to bring home ISIS sympathisers and will the government prioritise bringing home law-abiding Australian citizens at risk from the conflict?

The Prime Minister’s answer is short.

The premise of the question is wrong.

Four questions, one subject, no point …

David Littleproud asks again about “Isis brides” then has a conniption during the reply.

Aaron Violi goes one step further and gets booted from the chamber.

Taylor’s team is one down and rattled. It’s going to be a long season.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers, answering a Dixer on tax cuts, launches a stinging attack on Angus Taylor.

He was the Shadow Treasurer responsible for their policy of higher taxes for every taxpayer, bigger deficits and more debt. Not content with being the worst minister in the Morrison government, he was the worst Shadow Treasurer in memory, so they made him the leader of the Liberal Party. This is why they can’t release their election review, because – I have seen it and I read on page 21 – I refer you to page 21 of the unreleased election review which says …

Talk about a raw nerve. Andrew Hastie leaps to his feet:

The member for Blair asked about tax cuts and Budget repair … he didn’t ask for an impression of Keating where he just goes on the attack.

Nationals leader David Littleproud makes it three from three with a question about the women and children stranded in Syria , suggesting some sort of … suggesting … actually, I’ve got no idea what they’re getting at.

David Littleproud:

My question is to Minister for Home minister inform the house when he or his office last had contact with Dr Jamal Rifi concerning the repatriation of ISIS sympathisers?

Minister for Home Affairs, Tony Burke:

Thank you very much. It would be many, many months since I’ve had a conversation with Dr Jamal Rifi on that issue. The last time. What followed the last time that I think Dr Jamal Rifi was present at a meeting hi on this issue, what followed was a letter from Save Children who were also at that meeting which included this sentence “We are deeply disappointed with this decision to refuse assistance to Australians in trouble overseas”.

And now … the images you’ve all been waiting for … Mike Bowers has the first photos of the new-look opposition front bench.

Andrew Hasite to Tony Burke:

I refer to notes taken by the secretary of the Department of Home Affairs during a meeting she and the minister had with Save the Children about repatriating ISIS sympathisers before the last election that were provided to the Senate. The notes have a reference a commitment to find a way. What exactly was the commitment the minister made to Save the Children at this meeting?

Tony Burke, Home Affairs Minister:

The evidence clearly is there was no repatriation, that there was no assistance, that is what this government has done. This government has made sure that we have not in any way – in any way – provided any form of support for these individuals. That is why the meetings were followed with a letter from Save the Children complaining that the government had refused to offer any support.

Angus Taylor leaps to his feet after the Prime Minister’s statement on Iran:

This is a genocidal, authoritarian and despotic regime that has existed in Iran since 1979. They have been unspeakable acts. They have supported terrorist organisations throughout the Hamas, and the IRGC has acted to support terrorist acts throughout the world, including in this country, two acts we have seen at least in this country and the listing of the IRGC was something both sides of the parliament supported.

Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese:

Australia stands with the brave people of Iran in their struggle against what is an oppressive regime. The Iranian regime is directed attacks on Australian soil, brought death, destruction and on its neighbours. Australia’s not directly involved in current military strikes, we been clear of our utter rejection of the brutal Iranian regime. We are concerned about regional escalation and the protection of civilians. We note the public statement just put out by the Gulf states and the United States. Australian officials are closely monitoring the evolving situation. We support the US acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent Iran from continuing to threaten international peace and security and we support the Iranian people being allowed to determine their own future.

Our first priority is the safety of Australians in the region. We understand how distressing and challenging this time is and we will do all that we can to provide you with and to support you. We continue it advise Australians to not travel to Iran and leave as soon as possible if it is safe to do so. Our ability to provide consular assistance in Iran is extremely limited, due the correct decision that we made to expel the Iranian ambassador and close our embassy in Tehran after the evidence of involvement in terrorist attacks on Australian soil. Given our concerns around security in the region, we have upgraded Australia’s travel advice to “Do not travel” for Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. Australians should leave now if it is safe to so. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has activated a crisis centre to provide support to Australians in the region. The registration portal is now open for Australians seeking assistance in Israel, Iran, UAE and Qatar.

Angus Taylor starts his first question time as Opposition Leader with a question clearly written last week. Never mind that what might turn out to be World War III began overnight.

Prime Minister, there are reports that at least 34 passports have recently been issued under this government to facilitate the return of individuals who left Australia to join ISIS. Can the PM confirm none of his ministers, nor any member of staff, made representations to any relevant departments or agencies to support or expedite the issuing of Australian passports to sympathisers in Syria?

Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese

They are Australian citizens. They now have an entitlement and a right to come back to our country. There is no silver bullet. Not my words, but the words of Peter Dutton. He used to sit on that side of the chamber. We will work with those people, given they’re Australian citizens, and they the right to come back. If people are Australian citizens, they have a right to return and I need to deal with the realities of the way in which our laws and our constitution work. There is good reason as we don’t want media attention to some individual cases. “I don’t want cameras parked out the front of schools or people scrutinised as they go into a mosque”. Guess who that was? Peter Dutton.

We are not repatriating these people. We have made it clear. A organisation took us to court demanding that we do that. We opposed that court action, we won the court decision and those opposite know that this is the case. The hypocrisy on this extraordinary, given that 40 people came home on their watch, including not partners or relatives, including ISIS fighters.

The Albanese Government has flagged its interest in expanding the Parliament before, but last week we got the clearest signals yet that they are serious – with Paul Sakkal in The Age writing: Labor’s plan for dozens more MPs could bring back Frydenberg.

As Special Minister for State Don Farrell says, “our population has almost doubled” since the last expansion of Parliament back in 1984. In fact, it has only been Labor greats who expanded Parliament: Ben Chifley and Bob Hawke expanded Parliament as a whole, and Gough Whitlam legislated for the territories to elect their own senators.

The Albanese Government is apparently considering the smallest feasible increase: an extra 2 senators per state (12 new senators total) and 24 new electorates each with their own House of Representatives MP. But they would do it quickly: in time for the next election.

If you’re wondering why an extra 36 or so politicians is the smallest feasible increase, we have an explainer on The Point.  

Angus Taylor, sitting in the big oppo’ chair, says he’s provided a list of names to the House representing his new shadow ministry.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese responds with a tribute to Sussan Ley, telling the House he phoned the former Liberal leader and offered her the opportunity to return to Canberra and make a valedictory speech.

The PM then pays tributes to Australia’s winter Olympians.

Mike Bowers captured these images as Taylor and his posse stopped in the Mural Hall to attack the Australian women and children stranded in Syria … and attack journalists.

Politicians flying into Canberra for Parliament would be hard-pressed not to notice the huge billboards surrounding the capital’s airport paid for by gas industry lobbyists.

Everybody now knows that beer drinkers pay more tax than the gas industry – even Karl Stefanovic and the PM know this.

In response, the gas industry has put some very big numbers on their billboards.

The numbers are nonsense, and if you look REALLY carefully, you can see where they come from – look for the * in the picture below:

Zoom right in and you’ll see it comes from a KPMG report:

As noted on previous occasions, such reports are a haven for dodgy economic modelling and misleading methodologies. Here are three clangers from KPMG’s report:

1. The gas industry claim fails to note that most of the economic benefits flow to foreigners. So what’s labelled as a $100 billion “contribution to the economy” is actually profits for foreign gas companies. As the gas industry is primarily foreign-owned, focused on profits, and employs so few, most of the profit ends up overseas.
2. KPMG uses an economic modelling methodology that is so discredited it led the Productivity Commission to say its misuse “primarily relates to overstating the economic importance of specific sectoral or regional activities.” That is, used to inaccurately pump-up the economic importance of some industries.
3. KPMG define the “gas industry” to include 26 industries that are not part of the gas industry. Some of these industries include, Petroleum exploration, Industrial gases manufacturing, crude oil, and even parts of the Corporate head-office management services industry.

We could go on.

The point is that The billboard’s strategic location, so visible to the politicians heading to Parliament House, clearly shows the message is getting through: Big Gas is taking the piss.

Recently, The Australia Institute’s Senior Research Fellow David Richardson was looking at some data and realised that there was no way that wages could have been driving the spike in inflation that occurred in the last few months of 2025.

He ran the numbers and together with myself and Matt Saunders we put out a report (read it here) where we said pretty blunty: “Wages are not to blame for rising inflation”

One problem for us is that while we were pretty sure the main driver of inflation was profits, we did not have the data to state that definitively – even though that was the most likely explanation.

Well now we have the data.

Today the December quarter business indicators were released. These are part of the bigger” national accounts” that have the GDP figures (these come out on Wednesday). These cover wages and profits.

What they show is that profits in the December quarter rose a pretty huge 6.4% and total non-mining profits were also up 5.5%. For both totals that is the biggest one quarter jump since December 2022.

At the same time wages were up just 0.8% (0.9% if you include healthcare and education, for which there are no profit figures).

The jump in Wholesale trade profits is one that very much flows through to what consumers pay. That there was not a big jump in retail profits suggests that retailers were not able to increase prices by more than enough to cover the increased prices wholesale – but also that it didn’t hurt their profit margins. The profit margin for the Wholesale Trade industry rose in the last half of 2025 from 5.8% in June to 6.3%, while for retail trade it remained steady at 5.5%  

But it makes it utterly clear that wages have not have caused the jump in inflation. To find the culprit, you need to look at profits.

It also means that the gap between overall profits and wages growth over the past 25 years once again begins to increase:

Further to Matt Grudnoff’s post noting how gas companies made an absolute motza profiteering of the Ukraine war, the market very much expects the same thing to happen again.

LNG export prices in Japan (our main market) are very much linked to the world oil price

And given reports are that oil prices might rise 40%, speculators are thinking gas companies are going to do very well

Overall, the Australian share market has opened pretty weakly – everyone is a little bit “cripes, not sure how this will go”

But no such worries apply to our big gas exporters. Both Woodside and Santos are doing very nicely out of another illegal war. Probably because everyone knows they won’t have to worry about paying much tax…

As we reported earlier, Monique Ryan is introducing a private member’s bill that would see gambling harm officially defined as a risk to public health.

Dr. Ryan hopes her bill would help shift responsibility for gambling harm away from individuals and venues to the government.

The move comes quick on the heels of a new government report into BetStop released last week. If you haven’t heard of BetStop, that’s part of the problem. It’s a ‘self-exclusion’ register that is supposed to enable people with a problem to ban themselves from gambling online and by phone.

Long-time gambling reform advocate Reverand Tim Costello has called for ads for BetStop to be included within gambling ads. As he pointed out, the proliferation of gambling ads means that Australian kids are more likely to gamble than they are to play any of the most popular sports.

It has now been three years since the release of the landmark Murphy report into the harms of online gambling. The multiparty committee behind the report recommended that a ban on gambling ads be phased in over three years – which means that if the government had acted these ads would now be a thing of the past.

Polling from The Australia Institute shows that three in four Australians (76%) support a total ban on gambling ads, phased in over three years. Even more (81%) support banning gambling ads on social media and online.

Australians lose more to gambling than any other country in the world.

You can read more from Tim Costello and other big-thinking Australians on what bravery looks like in A time for Bravery.

Last week, Nine announced it would end print circulation of its newspapers in Tasmania, the latest nail in the coffin of print news in Australia. 

Nine’s move came despite the conglomerate’s print editions nationwide all being produced at Boyer Paper Mill, in the state’s south. 

While it may seem unimportant in an ever-more digital age of news media, this closure is another step towards the concentration of Australia’s newspapers and the death of local news. 

Australia Institute research last year found that hundreds of local newspapers have been shut down or moved to online-only since 2020. And those that lose their print editions often exist as little more than shells of their former selves. 

Print newspapers are something of a canary in the coal mine for the health of regional news. They act as valuable centres for local community, can be crucial for transparency in local government, and can help raise awareness of local issues.  

If a newspaper has a print edition, it means there’s a clear minimum amount of content it has to publish. But once it’s moved online only, a newspaper can be diluted with state-wide or national stories, and only actually publish one or two local stories a week, if that. 

Among the worst offenders for this trend is News Corp, which has 119 newspapers listed with the Australian Press Council, only 19 of which still exist as genuinely separate publications. The rest have been reduced to a subsection of the website of a larger News Corp publication such as the Herald-Sun or Daily Telegraph. 

Other news companies are moving in a similar direction, with Australian Community Media planning to move its daily publications to a weekly model, and ending circulation of some of its smaller titles. 

And now, Nine has abandoned its print runs in an entire state. And if the money doesn’t stack up for Tasmania, it won’t be long until they follow suit in other states and territories.  

Greens leader Larissa Waters has issued a powerful plea to Senators to withdraw Australia’s support for the attacks on Iran:

The Australian Government’s support for Trump and Netanyahu’s latest illegal war is a clear breach of international law and the prohibition on wars of aggression.

While US bombs and missiles rain down on Iran, there is every likelihood that they are being targeted with the direct or indirect assistance of “joint” US-Australian military facilities at Pine Gap and North West Cape.

The Greens condemn these illegal, abhorrent and unilateral attacks. Australians do not want to be dragged into another US-Israeli war. Australians deserve an independent foreign policy where we are not just Trump’s lapdog, giving billions for nuclear submarines that we will likely never receive.

An independent foreign policy, not support for another illegal war. I think history will look very poorly on this Labor government, and its continued support for Trump and Netanyahu’s war-mongering. The Labor government must immediately rule out further Australian support for Trump and Netanyahu’s illegal war.

Labor must confirm to the Australian people that no intelligence from Pine Gap or other US bases in Australia was used in these strikes, and rule out allowing these bases to be used in this illegal war going forward.

War is never the answer. We cannot bomb our way to peace.

As my excellent and very busy colleague Glenn is reporting, the Liberals are busy working up a motion congratulating Trump and Netanyahu on their war on Iran. A war that is quite clearly illegal under both American and international law – but, you know, whatever. It’s not like the Australian government, which frequently points to the “international rules based order” is willing to say that either.

This is all part of a deeply embedded historical pattern in Australia’s relationship with the United States. Australia is one of the only countries in the world to have followed the United States into almost every war it has waged since the end of the Second World War – no matter where, no matter when, no matter why. Sometimes they’ve committed before even being asked.

That’s what Liberal Senator James Patterson did for the Liberals this morning, when he said that if Australia was to take part in the military action against Iran, the coalition would offer its support.

The momentum is always towards Australian involvement. While nothing is inevitable, should a request come or should this war escalate, it would be a historical anomaly for Australia not to participate. While we can assume that this government would be reluctant to get involved (which it absolutely should be, given the considerable risks to everyone of this illegal war), there would be enormous pressure from the opposition and much of the right-wing media to do it. 

Outside that, it seems very unlikely that there would be any broader support for involvement. Australia Institute polling research released late last year found that 46% of Australians thought Australia’s interests were better served by a more independent foreign policy over a closer alliance with the United States. More recent polling published in the Nine papers found that in Australia “Trump has a net favorability rating of minus 41, his worst result since he returned to the White House in January last year.” When it comes to the United States more broadly, the poll found “net favorability rating plunging into negative territory (-17)” – that’s down 21 percentage points since October last year.

It’s kind of sickening how wars immediately default to economic issues, but let us not assume economic factors had no reason at all in the actual war itself.

We know oil prices will spike – that will affect inflation, but will that mean interest rates will automatically go up?

It shouldn’t. The RBA has no control over oil prices. It could raise rates as high as it likes and it won’t affect oil prices one jot. It might impact the value of our dollar, but that is a side issue.

Oil price shocks are supply side issue, and as a result the RBA should not feel any temptation to raise rates.

As it is even before the bombings began, markets wee getting slightly less certain of a rate rise in May

After the rate rise earlier this month, market expectation for another rate rise – if not two – went up sharply.

The market still thinks a rate rise in May is more likely than not, but less so than it was a couple weeks ago. And it is very much less certain that there will be any others after that.

This morning the market the likelihood of a rate rise in May has fallen a touch, but still seems to be what the market is betting.

But if the war does keep going, the RBA might think the impact on the world economy is such that raising rates while the economy is slowing is bad idea (and we would very much agree).

After all this time, and all of the evidence we have, it feels a little futile pointing out the deeply cynical hypocrisy of the Trump administration.

But it does bear repeating that Trump was at least in part elected on a promise that he would withdraw the United States from the “forever wars”. He was one of the first high-profile people on the conservative side of US politics to say that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake. He tapped into a deep vein of exhaustion and grief across the country. He was described as an “isolationist” and positioned himself as the only one who could end wars.

That was all always a lie. Trump was never an isolationist. He doesn’t hate wars, he just hates losing them. And he loves violence. In his recent State of the Union speech, he relished describing incidents of graphic violence – particularly blood. He forced grieving people to relive the worst moments of their lives in front of the entire world. He loves talking about bombs, and how big his are. He is deeply invested in violent demonstrations of power.

Will any of that affect him politically? 

The situation – both domestically and internationally – is so incredibly volatile that we just can’t predict outcomes. In a “normal” electoral cycle, we could have said with confidence that Trump and the Republicans were already heading for a catastrophic wipeout at the midterm elections in November, even before this weekend. 

And as Reuters reported this morning, only 1 in 4 Americans support these strikes. That’s really low, and as it goes on – and if there are more American deaths, which Trump is foreshadowing – it will only get lower. Trump is already historically unpopular.

It doesn’t seem likely that this war will help him turn that around. But he is a master at resetting the narrative and redirecting blame – and causing horrendous suffering as he does it. 

Senator David Shoebridge’s amendment in full:

Amendment to Senator Cash’s motion relating to Iran Omit all words after “That the Senate”, substitute:
“(a) notes:
(i) the Albanese Labor Government was the first in the world to support Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s illegal attacks on Iran, backed in by One Nation and the Liberal party;
(ii) already, the Iranian people are the victims of Trump and Netanyahu’s war, with hundreds killed in Israeli and US bombings of primary schools and hospitals;
(iii) these attacks have seen the very people oppressed by the Iranian regime face more violence, more hardship, more bloodshed and more fear; and
(b) calls on the Albanese Government to:
(i) immediately withdraw all support to Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s war with Iran and work with like-minded countries to promote peace in the region and for the people of Iran;
(ii) stop all intelligence and resources from Pine Gap, North West Cape and other US military assets in Australia assisting this illegal war and recalling all Australian troops seconded in the US military;
(iii) as an act of immediate solidarity, provide permanent protection to people who sought asylum by sea in Australia and are denied safety, hundreds of whom are from Iran; and (iv) acknowledge that the world cannot bomb its way to peace and that US-led foreign wars in the Middle East have never helped the people of the countries they have attacked and have always seen devastating bloodshed.

The Greens want to completely upend the Liberal motion of congratulations to Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu in the Senate.

They want the motion to recognise that the bombings are illegal and urge the government to withdraw its support of the US-Israel attacks.

Independent MPs and Senators have held a press conference in Parliament House, highlighting the government’s inaction on gambling reform.

Led by Kooyong MP Monique Ryan, crossbenchers say they’ll introduce a bill recognising gambling addiction as a public health issue.

We’re about to kick off our third footy season since the Murphy Report shone the brightest possible light on gambling harm. That means another onslaught of ads hitting our screens and stadia aimed at getting more Australians hooked on gambling. But the Albanese Government continues to drag its feet. It has failed to respond to any of the report’s 31 recommendations.  

More than 3 million adults in this country experience gambling-related harm. Experts have repeatedly documented the health impacts of problem gambling, but no Australian jurisdiction gives its health authorities responsibility for managing these issues.  

Classifying gambling as a ‘public health matter’ under the remit of the Australian Centre for Disease Control will kick off national action on a health emergency that demands the Albanese Government’s full attention.

Curtin MP Kate Chaney:

For too long, gambling harm has been treated as a matter of personal responsibility rather than a public health crisis. That narrative suits the gambling industry; it’s singing from the same song book as the tobacco industry a generation ago. 

The evidence we heard from experts during the Murphy Review was unambiguous: gambling harm should be treated as a public health issue, not a consumer issue. It affects a large population, directly or indirectly, and requires a more coordinated approach to address its harms.

Australians lose more to gambling per capita than any other nation on earth. Behind that statistic are real people experiencing financial ruin, mental health crises, and family breakdown. This bill reframes the issue with the seriousness it deserves.

Bradfield MP Nicolette Boele:

Australia’s epidemic of gambling harm is a public health emergency.  

For too long, powerful interests have made billions while ordinary Australians pay the price with their savings, their mental health and, in far too many cases, their lives. As many as 20% of suicides in Australia are caused by gambling, with irreversible impacts on families and communities. 

If we are serious about protecting people, then we must treat gambling harm as the public health crisis it is. Anything less is a conscious decision to put profits before people – and that is simply unacceptable.

Indi MP Helen Haines:

When Parliament established the CDC last year, I was concerned it did not legislate a clear requirement for the agency to expand across the full spectrum of public health. 

Gambling harm is a health issue and should be recognised and treated as such – not left on the sidelines while the damage to families and communities continues.

Mackellar MP Sophie Scamps:

Gambling harm is a whole of societal issue, not just an individual issue. It’s been allowed to encroach into every aspect our lives. Gambling is the root cause of so many harms including family and relationship breakdowns, domestic violence, mental distress, job losses, crime, and of course suicide. How could it be treated as anything other than a public health crisis?

Senator David Pocock:

As the late Labor MP Peta Murphy found in her inquiry, gambling companies groom Australian children and cause a range of harms, from serious financial and legal harms to self-harm.

Gambling is a serious public health issue, and yet it is not treated as one in this country. The Bill would start to turn that around, by allowing public health experts to start to study this in more detail and to present independent recommendations to the Government on how to minimise harm.

The US and Israel’s attack on Iran over the weekend is likely to push up oil and gas prices in coming days and weeks.

No one knows exactly how much these prices will rise. It depends on many factors including how long this conflict will last.

After Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022, oil and gas prices shot up to such an extent that it was one of the factors that set of an increase in inflation across the world.

While at this stage it is unlikely we will see an impact like that from the events over the weekend, there was a less publicised result from higher oil and gas prices for the invasion of Ukraine. Huge windfall profits.

Australia Institute research estimates that Australian gas companies made almost $100 billion in windfall profits from the surge in prices post invasion.

What happened to these profits? Most of them were paid out to the mainly foreign owners of these multinational corporations.

Most of the profits were based on royalty-free gas and little Petroleum Resource Rent Tax was paid.

If this attack on Iran does have a large impact on prices we will get the same result. Bigger profits for gas companies, higher dividends for their mostly foreign owners, and little in the way of extra revenue for the Australian people.

If oil and gas prices spike this will grow the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, make the people of Norway richer and giving them more revenue to fund services like health and education.

If oil and gas prices spike, Australians will be poorer, paying more for energy while multinational corporation continue to export the profits from our gas.

We need to tax our gas better. We should start with a 25% tax on gas exports. The sooner the better.

The first of three events involving former Greek Finance Minister and renowned economist Yanis Varoufakis was held in Adelaide last night.

Mike Bowers was there and shared these images, below.

Also, while the Sydney and Melbourne events are sold out, it’s not too late to register for Wednesday morning’s webinar.

Pauline Hanson is facing a censure motion in the Senate this morning, over her suggestion that there are no good Muslims (“How can you tell me there are good Muslims?”).

The Liberals are also reportedly preparing a motion of congratulations to Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu for their assault on Iran.

Liberal Senator James Paterson has just told Sky News that if Australia was to take part in the military action against Iran, the coalition would offer its support.

If you believe today’s Newspoll, One Nation is the federal opposition.

That means Barnaby Joyce is the nation’s defacto Deputy Opposition Leader.

Accordingly, he was asked about the US-Israel military operation during a regular commercial tv appearance.

Naturally, for a bloke who represents a party whose policies are just dot point slogans, his take was to launch into a rant about renewable energy. (Which, ironically, doesn’t rely on oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz.)

Barnaby Joyce:

The cost of living to is going to be smashed if this continues on. We like when we load cattle, we got, I’ve got diesel, and you can’t do it on intermittent power windmills and solar panels, for goodness sake. I mean, what you’ve got to do is got to get the truck to the sale yards, the sale yards to the feedlots, the feedlots, to the abattoir, the abattoir back to the shops. And this all goes into your cost of living. And we’re down to two oil refineries because of this insane idea that we’re going to cool the planet … and now we’re talking about energy security and solar panels.

Real Trumpian logic there. Just a redder shade of orange.

Independent Mackellar MP Dr Sophie Scamps will today introduce an updated version of her Transparent and Quality Public Appointments Bill 2026 (‘Ending Jobs for Mates Bill’) to Parliament.  

Dr Scamps says the bill would establish an independent, transparent process for all major appointments to ensure selections are based on expertise, not political connections. 

It would require a six-month cooling-off period for former politicians and senior political staff, and 18 months for former Ministers or Parliamentary Secretaries, before they can be appointed to major public roles. 

Lynelle Briggs high profile review of public sector board appointments was delivered to the government in August 2023, raising concerns about the transparency, independence and merit of senior public appointments.  

It found that board appointments had, at times, favoured politically connected individuals, fuelling perceptions of patronage and eroding public confidence. The review concluded that reform is needed to restore independence, transparency and merit-based selection.  

Sophie Scamps has had enough of the government’s lack of action, given transparency was a key issue of its election in 2022.

It’s been three years since I first introduced this bill and sadly major public roles are still being appointed behind closed doors with little to no transparency The Briggs Review made it clear: without enforceable rules, patronage and favouritism creep into the system.

It’s bad for democracy and bad for Australians when governments choose who suits them best, not who is best for the job.

The Briggs Review was hidden from the public for almost two years, only to be quietly released on a Friday before Christmas. And instead of acting on its detailed integrity recommendations, the government has put forward a token half‑page of vague ‘principles’ – seven dot points that leave board appointments largely at the discretion of Ministers. It’s window dressing, not reform.

Since the Bill was first introduced, the Commonwealth has established several major new bodies, including the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) and the National Environment Protection Authority (National EPA), yet the appointment of their leaders remains entirely at ministerial discretion, without any legislated requirement for a transparent or merit‑based process.

Australians deserve a system where these high-paid and powerful appointments are based on merit, not mateship. This bill puts an end to the quiet deals and back‑room pathways that have damaged confidence in government for far too long.

Good governance is not a partisan issue. Every Australian is better served when the best person gets the job, not the best‑connected person. It doesn’t just look bad – it dampens the morale and capability of our public institutions, ultimately weakening the quality of decisions that affect people’s lives.

The bill will be supported by Independent Calare MP Andrew Gee.

Jobs for mates erodes public trust and confidence in government and our public institutions.  

Making political appointments to government boards has become an accepted part of Australian political life that’s been going on for far too long. It’s time to clean this up and bring the practice to an end.  

I don’t think it’s too much to ask that we have the most qualified people being appointed to key public positions and that there’s actually an open, independent and transparent process around selections.  

If as a nation, we’re serious about restoring confidence in government, this is surely a vitally important place to start.

Any war or bombings in Iran always brings with it a reflex thought of what will happen to oil prices and in turn how much we pay for petrol.

This, as much as anything, is past of the 50-year memory of what happening in the 1970s when the OPEC nation placed an oil embargo on after the Yom Kippur War, and then the 1979 Iranian Revolution which saw a major drop in oil production in that country.

The 1973 crisis saw world oil prices rise 525% in a year (though off an extremely low base) which in 1979, the price rose 208%.

The impact on Australia fuel prices at the time was pretty brutal. In 1975 fuel prices rose 25% in a year, which in 1979 they went up 48%

The USA-Israel attack on Iran yesterday saw the world price of oil jump nearly 3% to US$72.87 a barrel – the highest it has been for more than 6 months, but still well down on the US$95 is hit in September 2023.

So, will the price of unleaded petrol go up?

Almost certainly, because there is a pretty strong long-term correlation between would oil prices and what we pay at the bowser. But that link is rather less than it used to be, but only when prices are falling, not rising:

Consider that since September 2023, the $A price of oil has fallen 36% (more than the price in US, because the $A has gone up in value meaning the $A buys more things in US$ terms). But ULP has fallen just 13%.

Even more stark, since January last year the world oil price has fallen 28%, but unleaded prices in January this year were just 3% lower than they were a year earlier.

Now there are other factors – the Australian price of unleaded is benchmarked to the Singapore Mogas 95 Unleaded market – although that of course is in turn linked to the world price of oil. As I checked that market Sunday night, it was up 5.7% on the day, so you can almost guarantee there will be a bump in petrol prices this week and the next.

The ACCC notes that there are other factors at play in how much we pay for fuel, but mostly the ups and downs are driven by the world oil price and the pricing decisions of the largest retailers to have cheaper days and then more expensive ones.

That the price of petrol has not fall over the past year in the manner of oil prices also reflects the strong market power the biggest retailers have, and their ability to pass on oil price rises but not be so quick to pass on (if at all) oil price falls.

This should not set off another 1979 crisis – the world oil market is much different now, and even the big dumb utes don’t have as bad fuel consumption as the old cars people drove in the 1970s.

But remember as well that the world gas price is also strongly linked to the price of oil. A rise in oil prices will deliver yet another bonanza to gas exporters, in much the same way that the Russia invasion of Ukraine did.

And once again, Australians will lose out – higher gas prices, and bugger all to show for it in tax revenue.

Whenever there’s a global event like this, be it war or a natural disaster, there’s a big focus on Australian citizens who have been impacted.

I recall covering the Gulf War (albeit from Washington, not Kuwait) and the terrible tsunami on Boxing Day 2004. Australians were impacted by both. We were part of the so-called “coalition of the willing” in Iraq and Australians were killed in the tsunami.

Of course a lot of people travelling to and from Australia via Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi will have their travel impacted. But I can’t help being a little cynical when the government makes that the narrative with so many much bigger questions, not least about the legality of the Trump-Netanyahu action, let alone the government’s blanket support without a shred of detail.

And, so far, the media is dutifully following the travel angle.

Shout out to James Glenday on ABC News breakfast. After a couple of questions about travel, questions for Penny Wong turned to the rules-based order which Australia so often quotes, particularly in relation to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Question: you’ve also been on our show a lot speaking about the importance of the international rules-based order. Was this action illegal under international law?

First in relation to Ayatollah Khamenei, as you said, no one will mourn his passing. This is the leader who has been responsible for brutally murdering his own people. A leader who has been responsible for the sponsoring of terrorist proxies in the region, including Hamas and Hezbollah, and a country that has, contrary to international law, continued with and its nuclear program and refused to enable the international nuclear body, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to do inspections.

Question: Just to the question about legality, though, because I think a lot of people will be looking back through statements made by you and the Prime Minister and others from the time of the Iraq war and thinking what’s the legal justification under international law for this action by America and Israel?

First, one of the distinctions with Iraq, between Iraq and now, is that we are not participating in these strikes. That’s the first point I’d make. The second is, what I’ve said is that the legal basis of this is for the United States and Israel to explain.

Question: But if it is illegal and you’re not sort of taking a position, why wouldn’t Australia just come out and say it, that the rules-based order is not being respected.

We’re obviously not party to the intelligence that both that the United States and the Israelis are referencing in their decisions. That is why it is for them to explain the legal basis of this. We do support action taken to ensure Iran does not have a nuclear weapon.

Penny Wong took a few questions from journalists in the press gallery a short time ago.

Question: Do you agree with the way the United States went about executing the Supreme Leader?

Ultimately, these strikes are a matter for the United States and Israel to explain. No one mourns the death of the Supreme Leader, this is a man who was responsible for a regime that brutally murdered its own people in an attempt to retain authority. This is a regime, led by this man, which has sponsored terrorism, sponsored proxies who have engaged in terrorism in the region. This is a regime which has been part of organising attacks on Australian soil. So we do not mourn his death.

Question: Have you been made aware of any evidence that Iran was preparing for a nuclear strike?

What we do know as an international community is Iran has consistently failed to comply with the decisions of the Security Council in relation to its nuclear program. We know that the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is the nuclear watchdog, has found Iran – has given evidence about the enrichment stage at which Iran has reached, and they have also said that Iran has refused to fully comply with the inspection regime. So I think we all understand the intention behind the regime.

For the second day in a row, Foreign Minister Penny Wong is doing the rounds.

If the point yesterday was a scrambled statement to support the US strikes but avoid any discussion about the legality of Trump and Netanyahu’s actions, today the focus is travel.

We will continue to support Australians to navigate the disruption ahead, providing regular travel advice updates and consular assistance where we can, noting there are limits to what any government can do in a fast-moving and uncertain environment.

Many Australians in the Middle East are unable to leave due to airspace closures, including around major transit hubs. Road and land border closures may also restrict movement.