The Point Live: PM to address the nation; Gas export tax raised as a "Matter of Public Importance"; Fuel excise cut comes into force as prices keep rising; Final sitting day before the budget

That’s it for a fun, albeit short, parliamentary week.

Thanks for your ongoing support.

It’s been a privilege sitting in for Amy, who will be with you when parliament resumes on budget week, which feels a long way away right now.

If you have some time tomorrow, please join me for our free Unparliamentary webinar – I’ll be chatting to popular AAP political correspondent Dominic Giannini. It starts at 11am.

Happy Easter, to those who celebrate. Stay home. Leave the car in the garage. Eat chocolate and buns. Watch sport.

Back in 2016, when Donald Trump was first elected President of the United States of America, many Australian conservatives praised him — at least in part. 

Former Prime Minister John Howard said Trump’s success was in part “emblematic of people’s frustration with political correctness. What people like is that he seems to call it as it is.” Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott said “some of his views are over the top but cutting tax and boosting defence are classic conservatism”.

The future Liberal Premier of NSW Dominic Perrottet claimed that Trump’s election was “a victory for people who have been taken for granted by the elites in the political establishment for too long … a forgotten people.”

Miranda Devine compared President Trump to then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, saying both “are streets ahead of the alternative”. 

Andrew Bolt asked “which other candidate looks likely to arrest the disastrous fall of the US in prestige and power — a fall that threatens us, too?”

Pauline Hanson said that “[Americans] want someone who is actually going to fight for them”.

At the end of President Trump’s first term, Greg Sheridan (Foreign Editor at The Australian) described President Trump as “militarily prudent in the Middle East”, and said that while “his record certainly has its negatives”, “there is a lot to say in favour of Trump” on the basis of “what he has actually done”.

In 2024, Alexander Downer said if he had a vote, “I’d close my eyes and vote for Trump.” 

The tune is beginning to change.

Mr Sheridan has recently written that “No one can tell what Trump thinks will be an acceptable outcome [regarding Iran] because he contradicts himself several times a day”.

Liberal deputy leader in the House Andrew Hastie, self-proclaimed “pro-American”, has labelled the US’s involvement in the war on Iran “a huge miscalculation”. Hastie told Insiders “I don’t know why we went in now. I thought last year we did the job.” 

Greg Sheridan has backed Hastie’s comments, calling them “entirely justified and completely correct”. He went further, saying that “The Liberals looks silly if they won’t criticise Trump”.

The leaked Liberal Party Review of the 2025 Federal Election made a similar point. “The election of President Trump, while initially positively received by Australians, soon became problematic for the Opposition Leader”. Dutton, referred to by some as “Temu Trump”, became increasingly unpopular for his Trump-like policies and was ultimately defeated by “The Trump Factor”.

Today, more Australians think Donald Trump is the greatest threat to world peace than think that of Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping.

Nonetheless, Australian conservatives have not entirely distanced themselves from President Trump. Pauline Hanson says Australia should be doing more to help out its “mates … stamp out evil” and today Opposition Leader Angus Taylor said Australia “should give full consideration” to wade into the Strait of Hormuz. 

With the Easter long weekend just around the corner, many Australians would ordinarily be gearing up for one of the many music festivals that take place this time of year… except that skyrocketing petrol prices have people rethinking travel plans… and Byron Bay Bluesfest – which has long been one of the biggest events in the country – has been cancelled because of ongoing financial problems. The cost of fuel is only the latest in a long list of challenges for the festival circuit.

But not everyone is being left all dressed up with no place to go.

The good news is that the number of live music venues in NSW has quadrupled in two years. This is thanks to grants from the state government for venue upgrades, and incentives that include a discount on liquor licencing fees and the right to extended trading hours. They’ve also done things like make it harder for noise complaints to shut down venues, and easier for a wider range of venues to host live music (not just pubs and clubs).

This shows that policy incentives can work to create a better Australia. If free public transport were added to the mix, punters in the First State could be up for a good night out.

Demand for electric vehicles (EVs) appears to be booming in the face of the fuel prices surge and roll out of discounted loan schemes. This is undoubtedly good news, but Australia has a long way to go to electrify our vehicle fleet, reduce reliance on imported oil and bring down carbon emissions.

Of Australia’s 1.2 million new light vehicle sales over the last year, about 13% were EVs (9% battery with another 4% plug-in hybrids). This is much more than recent years but still far behind other countries, in Norway 92% of new car sales are EVs, this figure is 58% in Sweden, 48% in China and 28% across the EU.

Australia has lagged the world for a long time, 2024 was the first year that we had more electric cars than horse floats and today only about 2% of Australia’s cars are electric. Meanwhile next to none of the hundreds of thousands of heavy vehicles (trucks, busses, and specialist vehicles like cranes) are electric.

This has left Australia highly reliant on diesel, according to a recent report from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW):

The strong increase in diesel consumption since 2009 (Figure 12) is largely driven by trends in the road transport sector: growth in the vehicle fleet due to population growth; increasing popularity of diesel-powered Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs); and increasing demand for freight, which is dominated by diesel-powered light commercial and heavy vehicles.  (emphasis added)

This has been actively encouraged by poor government policies. Under-regulation and tax concessions has led to an explosion in the sales of big cars such as SUVs and utes.

Meanwhile Australia’s fuel tax credit scheme, costs over $10 billion a year, refunding fuel tax for big diesel users such as the mining industry and transportation sector. This means big fuel users essentially receive cheaper fuel, creating a significant disincentive to transition to alternatives not reliant on imported oil.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed what we reported yesterday: he’s cancelled his trip to Gallipoli, due to the war in Iran.

The trip had not been confirmed or made public, but in Question Time today he confirmed there was a plan to be in Turkiye for Anzac Day … but there’s not now.

Assuming Trump’s war is over … and the PM doesn’t retire between now and then … he’ll probably go next year.

Mike Bowers took this picture to prove Tim Wilson was actually in Question Time. He was strangely silent. He got one little warning from the Speaker for his usual yapping in the background, but he didn’t ask a question.

Why would he? The economy’s going down the toilet thanks to Trump’s war – it’s not like there’s a shortage of economic issues to discuss.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese noticed … and couldn’t resist this little dig, as MPs prepared to rush for the exits.

This is the last Question Time, of course, before the Budget. We haven’t bothered to have a question from the Shadow Treasurer, it shows that their focus is not on just talking things down.

The Prime Minister sounds the final siren on the sitting fortnight with a list of “achievements”.

Mr. Speaker, we know that Australians at the moment are fairly anxious about what is happening on the globe. They watch it the Middle East. War means there are real pressures on people, the uncertainty that’s there from how it will end, when it will end, means that that uncertainty is there.

We have responded to the biggest spike in global fuel prices in history by cutting the fuel excise in half, establishing the national strategic reserve, delivering a national fuel security plan to make a real difference.

At the same time, we’ve been focused on the agenda that we took to the election last May. Just this week, we have delivered on better wages, fairer prices and stronger Medicare. We’ve abolished unfair junior pay rates, we’ve ended credit and debit card surcharges, we’ve taken action on unfair hidden fees and subscription traps online and, from today, Medicare mental health check in service has started.

Another week in a year of delivery, ticking off our commitments one by one. 134 Medicare urgent care clinics open, just three to go. Cheaper medicines. More GPs bulk billing every patient. The biggest ever investment in women’s health, including 33 Endo clinics. 230,000 Australians owning their own home for the first time with just a 5% deposit. 20% cut to student debt delivered. Thge gender pay gap at an all time low. Over 300,000 families and businesses with a cheaper battery going forward. $10,000 incentives for construction apprentices and paid prac’. 750,000 enrolments in free tape. And income tax cuts coming in July.

Michelle Landry, Member for Capricornia:

Has the government received advice of any additional fuel ships bound for Australia that have been delayed or cancelled?

Chris Bowen, Energy Minister:

The Prime Minister has already answered that question. The answer is no.

Chris Bowen, Energy Minister:

The National Fuel Security Plan, as agreed by National Cabinet, does say that there would be preference given to critical users such as life supporting services, utilities and emergency services.

Although we’ve made very clear we do not contemplate needing to use the Liquid Fuel Emergency Activities Act, the instrument that is current outlines the essential and critical services – they are an ambulance service, a corrective service, a fire or rescue service, a police service, a public transport service, a State Emergency Service or in some circumstances a taxi service.

Kate Chaney, Independent Member for Curtin:

It’s coming up to a decade since the implementation of the Robodebt scheme, but there’s still no mandatory framework for the use of automated decision making in government, and now there are real community concerns about the use of automated decisions in aged care in the NDIS. You engaged in a community consultation on automated decision making well over a year ago. When can we expect to see a legislated and mandatory framework for automated decision making in government to prevent a repeat of Robodebt?

Michelle Rowland, Attorney-General:

The Albanese government is working to protect Australians against a repeat of the former Liberal government’s illegal and immoral Robodebt scheme. We are developing a consistent whole of government framework for the use of automated decision making, or ADM implementing recommendations of the Royal Commission into the Robodebt scheme.

Responding to the royal commission with durable reform is a priority for the government, particularly where it strengthens the integrity, lawfulness and transparency of Commonwealth decision making for the benefit of the house.

I can assure the member, the framework is being developed carefully and methodically to ensure that it supports innovation whilst maintaining strong protections for individuals, especially where decisions affect rights, entitlements or obligations, and striking that right balance is essential.

The government has undertaken extensive consultation, including with the public, to ensure the framework reflects community expectations. Ongoing engagement is also occurring across government to inform the design of the framework, including work with agencies that do have significant experience deploying ADM in their front line services.

When I’m in a position to provide further information on the timing of these well advanced reforms, I’m more than happy to engage with the Honorable Member and any other interested members.

Anne Webster, Member for Mallee:

Under the so-called National Fuel Security plan. Can the Prime Minister list who will be classified as a critical user?

Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister:

I thank the member for her question. I note that in the question, it speaks about the so-called National Fuel Security Plan. I hope that the member has informed premier Rockcliff, Premier Crisafulli and Lea Finocchiaro in the Northern Territory, that she doesn’t regard the hard work that was done over the weekend to produce the National Fuel Security Plan.

Mr. Speaker, I was asked about the National Cabinet document that was agreed unanimously at National Cabinet, and we know from their talking points, backed up by the questions that they’ve asked here today, that they actually want things to get harder for Australians because they think it will be better for them.

Nicolette Boele, Independent Member for Bradfield:

The government’s East Coast Gas Reservation is due to start next year. It will compel the three Queensland LNG exporters to reserve up to 25% of our gas for domestic market, while most gas producers support the scheme, some … have asserted that it could crush gas supplies. Minister at the same time as you work urgently to end our reliance on costly fossil fuels. Will the government stand firm on the domestic gas reservation scheme to ensure that our resources work for us and not multinational corporations?

Chris Bowen, Energy Minister:

The answer is that we are very much absolutely confirmed and determined to introduce the gas reservation policy announced by the Minister for resources and I just before Christmas, and we announced it would start on the first of January, 2027 although we announced that also from the date of announcement, we would regard any contracts entered into at that point as being new and therefore covered by the new regime. The Minister for resources and I have been consulting very deeply.
We called for submissions in December. Those submissions called for submissions closed about a fortnight ago. We received, I think it’s 53 submissions that the minister and I have been working through very carefully. We are now engaged in detailed design. There are a number of elements that need to be determined in close consultation with industry. And by industry, I don’t just mean gas producers. I also mean heavy industry, gas users. We are talking to both sides of the equation. If I put it that way, that’s what a good government does, consults deeply, but ultimately, the Cabinet will decide the parameters of the gas reservation on the recommendation jointly of the Minister of resources and I and we intend to make sure it works for Australians, because the gas that’s under our soil and our waters should be gas that the Australian people have first rights to when it comes to the needs of heavy industry and the Australian energy system.

Angie Bell, Member for Moncrieff:

The Queensland LNP government is using its powers to fast track drilling for oil in the Taroon Trough. Given our national fuel crisis, will Labor work with the Coalition to fast track approvals for Australian oil projects, including the Taroon Trough, so our country can build our own energy security?

Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister:

The Coalition won’t be involved in this. The Queensland LNP is the Queensland Government. I work constructively with the Crisafulli government when it comes to any proposals. They go through our environmental laws, which we improved last year without the support of those opposite so that, so that what we can do is actually do things faster and more efficiently.

Dan Tehan, Shadow Energy Minsiter:

Will the Prime Minister commit to releasing on a daily basis the latest information on (A), the number of service stations which are out of fuel (B), detailed fuel stock holdings by location and (C), the number of ships which are bound for Australia, and how many have been canceled or delayed.

Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister:

I’ll commit to continuing to be transparent, continuing to be transparent, continuing to provide information, as myself and the energy minister have done continue to be engaged, as we have in not just in this Parliament, but in the multiple press conferences that we have had before the entire I’ve held more press conferences in the last month or so here in Canberra than his predecessor did in the previous three years. So tomorrow, I’ll be at the National Press Club again being accountable to the entire population.

It’s more than three years since the Murphy Report, with 31 recommendations to protect Australians – especially children – from the evils of gambling.

So far the government has done next-to-nothing, despite constantly talking up the work of the late Peta Murphy.

Andrew Wilkie, Independent Member for Clark, has one last try before Easter:

Prime Minister, many Australians have lobbied tirelessly for gambling advertising reform. So you can imagine how interested we are in today’s media report that the government is set to announce some reforms. To be clear, they are only a first step, though, because they will only partly address just one of the 31 recommendations in the Murphy report. So what is the veracity of today’s report and what’s the government’s plan to address the other 30 recommendations.

Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister:

The government has not made any decisions. We work things through in an orderly way, as I’ve said to previous questions regarding gambling reform, we haven’t concluded what we’re doing. We work through and continuing to consult appropriate, appropriate interest of parties, including members of the cross bench, but I’ve made it also very clear that my view is probably different. It’s fair to say, from the member for Clark, with respect, he’s long been an advocate in these issues, I think that we need to get absolutely the balance right between people’s right to have a punt and the the view that I have, which is that it is too prevalent and that people, particularly young people, should be able to watch sport and not see a link between sport, necessarily, and gambling that we need to de link those issues. The government continues to work on these issues, and I don’t know, with regard to the member for Clark’s suggestion about what’s been supported what hasn’t been when the government makes decisions, which we make collectively, we then announce them.

Angus Taylor, Opposition Leader:

On Monday, the Prime Minister’s statements included Australia’s fuel supply outlook remain secure, and there is more fuel available today than there was prior to the war commencing. Since then, has the government received advice of any additional additional fuel carriers bound for Australia that have been delayed or cancelled?

Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister:

The advice that I gave to parliament on Monday was correct. Every single ship that was due to arrive here in March arrived, that is just a fact. And of the 81 ships that were due to arrive here in April, six of those were canceled. They were more than replaced by six plus three, nine additional ships arriving, arriving. In addition to that, of course, extra fuel is available from that produced here, because what we did was change the standards for both petrol and diesel, so that every bit of fuel that’s produced here is kept here domestically as well. So that adds to supply.

Angus Taylor, Opposition Leader:

Yesterday, the Prime Minister told ABC Melbourne, I quote, fuel supplies have not been disrupted. Tonight, the prime minister will deliver an emergency address to the nation. Prime Minister, what has changed since yesterday.

Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister:

Nothing has changed since yesterday.

We’ve got a lot of oil and gas and other precious commodities trapped in the Persian Gulf behind the Strait of Hormuz. So until the war is resolved, we’re going to feel supply pressures.

Every single every single ship load of fuel that was due to come here in March arrived on schedule. That is absolutely true, and what is required at times like this is to be considered be orderly work through issues, not to not to pretend there aren’t challenges, and the government doesn’t pretend that they’ve been faced by the entire world.

We’ve acted on both of those issues in a responsible and orderly way, which is how my government operates.

This bloke knows what he’s talking about.

Noah Schultz-Byard is Director of Strategic Partnerships at The Australia Institute … with a reminder of how the Gas Giveaway Tracker works.

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I’m back from the Anthropic Intelligence Futures Forum, organised by Anthropic to promote Artificial Intelligence and specifically its AI model “Claude”.

It’s the only forum I’ve been to where the audience wasn’t given a chance to ask questions – which indicates how careful the firm was to avoid topics like their collaboration with for-hire private surveillance company Palantir or their dispute with US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth over how much of a role AI should play in killing people during war.  

I don’t think there’s any doubt that Artificial Intelligence will change the way we live and work, as the Internet, mobile phones, computers and pocket calculators did before it. And Artificial Intelligence will cause harm, at least on the scale of other digital phenomena like online gambling, social media and deepfake scams have done.

But will it have as profound an effect as the plough, the train or electricity? Will it be as dangerous as the atomic bomb or the handgun? Will it liberate as many people from work as the washing machine, oven and vacuum cleaner did? Will benign, godlike machine spirits watch over humans as we return to a state of nature, as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei dares hope?

The “forum” sadly didn’t provide much illumination, although it furnished a few interesting examples. 

Anthropic engineer (back in his hometown of Canberra) Zac Hatfield-Dodds began as a software engineer, writing code. But with the improvement in AI:

“In 2026, I’m managing a team, and every single one of my reports is named ‘Claude’.”

Now he even tells Claude to review its own work, as if it were him – with his preferences, his priorities and his voice.

Think of the enormous power and discretion that AI is being left unsupervised with: the power to access, edit and delete your documents, to make internet searches on your behalf, to write and run computer programs.

It doesn’t have to be particularly good at any of that to get you in trouble with the law, destroy your reputation or undo years of hard work.

I was reminded of the story in the old Disney movie Fantasia, where Mickey Mouse is too lazy to fetch his own water, so he enchants a broom to do it for him. The room floods, and his attempts to destroy the broom only cause it to multiply exponentially.

The story goes back to an 18th Century poem by Goethe, The Sorcerer’s Apprentice. The apprentice wails, “The spirits that I summoned, I cannot rid myself of”.

The anxiety about automation, and our ability to control it, has been here since the early days of the Industrial Revolution – but that doesn’t make the danger (and the opportunity) any less real today.

Last year, Labor and Liberal voted together to dramatically change Australia’s election laws – including bringing in donation and spending caps that would hurt minor parties and independents (but with loopholes that major parties could take advantage of).

The silver lining is increased transparency around political donations, requiring most political donations above $5,000 to be disclosed in real time.

Those laws were meant to come into force from 1 July, so we could start to find out more about who’s funding Australian politicians.

Last night, Special Minister of State Don Farrell announced that the start of the laws would be delayed by six months, until 1 January 2027, because the AEC is struggling to implement them now they also have to administer the Farrer by-election.

The laws are complicated, untested and were never properly scrutinised. The delay would be a good opportunity to review the laws and see what amendments are needed – including the six identified by integrity and democracy groups last year.

How much of what’s around you is plastic?

If your workplace is anything like mine it’ll include the casing on your computer, the laminate on your desk, the carpet, the curtains, your lunch box and your clothes …

All of it is made from petroleum so, in addition to fuel, the war in the Middle East could start affecting the price and supply of plastics.

In the longer run though, it’s the other end of the supply chain that is of real concern.

Since the year 2000, the total amount of plastic consumed in Australia has more than doubled, and it is estimated to increased by a further two-and-a-half times by 2050.

Remember when you could buy a lettuce without the packaging?

Despite government policies aimed at creating a ‘circular economy’, just 14% of plastic waste is kept out of landfill.

Recycling plastic is inefficient, expensive and hazardous, and there is little demand for recycled plastics. Policies to cap or phase down the use of plastics, including a plastics tax, are needed.

If Australia introduced a tax on plastic packaging, similar to what the EU has put it place, it could raise $1.5 billion a year.

Just like transport and power, this crisis is an opportunity to rethink just how reliant we are on the fossil fuels used to make plastics, and the take-make-waste model of production that leaves our single-use waste festering in landfills, on beaches, and in the ocean for future generations to deal with.

Yesterday the Parliament passed laws that make it a bit safer to share and adapt “orphan works”, which are creative works where the original creator can’t be found.

Copyright restrictions apply automatically to every creative work by every person. That is true whether a creation is ephemeral, like a holiday photograph in front of Osaka Castle or a Facebook post about a gas tax, or complex and enduring, like a portrait, song, novel or movie. And with a few exceptions, copyright in Australia lasts for 70 years after the death of the creator.

The National Library of Australia alone has over two million unpublished works in its collection, a “significant number” of which are orphan works that therefore cannot be digitised or made available to researchers, historians and the public.

Humans have always reproduced, remixed and built on what came before.

Under copyright law, this can get you in trouble, even if what you are reproducing is a very small part of the original work. A lot of time and money is spent tracking down and compensating whomever holds the copyright over the original work (which could be someone with little connection to the original creator).

But if you can’t find the original creator, that closes off their creation forever – even if the original artist, author or musician would have been delighted if, decades after the original was created, someone cared enough to digitise their book, cover their song, write fan fiction about their novel, include their artwork in a collage or use their photograph in a documentary.

The new orphan works laws make doing that a bit safer, where you have made a good faith effort to track down the rightsholder. 

“I don’t argue that this is easy. I don’t argue that it’s simple. But I do argue that it’s just.”

That’s what Anthony Albanese said back in 2018 in support of Australia joining the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

He said, “Labor in government will sign and ratify the UN Treaty” and yet, after almost four years of Albanese being power, Australia still hasn’t.

Nuclear weapons have caused irreversible harm around the world.

Across Australia, communities continue to endure the radioactive legacies of nuclear tests on First Nations lands at Maralinga, Emu Field and the Monte Bello Islands.

But nuclear isn’t some distant memory: the AUKUS deal ties Australia to its nuclear-armed allies, and in 2023, Australians, via their superannuation funds, invested at least $3.4 billion in companies that produce the worst weapons of mass destruction.

And although Australia is now a party to the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty, it allows the US to use its docks and air bases for its submarines and nuclear-comparable B-52 bomber aircrafts. The US neither confirms nor denies whether those nuclear-capable vessels are actually carrying a nuclear warhead.

But as Marianne Hanson and Tara Gutman, co-chairs of ICAN Australia, told the Guardian:

In moments of crisis such as these, the temptation is to close ranks. The responsibility of middle powers like Australia, however, is in fact the opposite: to insist that the rules matter most when they are most inconvenient. 

That’s why over 150 Australian and Pacific Island civil society organisations, including The Australia Institute, have signed the No Nuclear Weapons in Australia Declaration calling on the Albanese government to fulfil Australia’s promised commitment to nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. 

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) Australia has brought together these organisations to urge the Australian government to ensure that nuclear weapons never again have a place in Australia. The Declaration calls on the Albanese government to:

1. Sign and ratify the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons as a matter of urgency;
2. Reject ‘nuclear ambiguity’ and prohibit the entry, transit or presence of nuclear weapons in Australian territory, waters and airspace; and
3. End all forms of assistance to nuclear weapons activities.

In 2018, Anthony Albanese and the Labor party were vocally opposed to nuclear weapons. Today, the Declaration calls on them to uphold that stance.

The ACTU wants the government to bring forward a prohibition on price gouging by supermarkets and tougher penalties for those that take advantage of supply chain uncertainties to boost their profits.

A ban on price gouging and higher penalties for supermarkets that unfairly pad their profits during times of crisis are due to come into effect on July 1 as part of a beefed-up Food and Grocery Code.

Unions are urging Treasurer Jim Chalmers to bring forward the start date for the new anti-price gouging law so working people don’t get hit by inflated prices for grocery essentials.

ACTU Secretary Sally McManus says:

We do not want to see a repeat of what happened in Covid when supermarkets fattened their profits by price gouging ordinary Australians. This is not something that can be allowed to happen again, the government and the competition watchdog need to come down like a ton of bricks on any supermarket that tries this on.

The ACTU will be writing to the CEOs of Coles, Woolworths and Aldi calling on them to not engage in price gouging. They are already delivering huge profits, working Australians cannot afford hefty price rises. Real wages have not yet recovered from the last round of profit-led inflation. All Australians will be watching their behaviour very carefully; any attempt to repeat their post-Covid behaviour will cause a significant backlash.

We want supermarkets to know that if they do the wrong thing, all Australians will be watching them like hawks and the corporate regulator will have the power to swoop in and swiftly fine them.

The ACTU is also considering an urgent case before the Fair Work Commission to lift motor vehicle allowances for workers who use their own vehicle for work and wants the government to direct the ATO to lift the rate it calculates for deductions on workers’ vehicle expenses.

It says the current rate of 88 cents per kilometre has lagged behind the increase in fuel costs and doesn’t represent the cost to workers of vehicle use.

National average unleaded fuel prices increased to more than $2.80 per litre, up more than 70% on pre-war averages.

Workers who need to use their vehicles for work also deserve a fair reimbursement rate that keeps up with actual fuel prices. Until this changes, workers are effectively subsidising their employers from their own pockets. This is an even bigger issue in regional areas where people drive long distances. Right now, workers such as NDIS and aged care workers are struggling to pay for petrol, this puts at risk vulnerable Australians who need support.

Head of the Artificial Intelligence firm Dario Amodei is in conversation with Grattan Institute head Dr Aruna Sathanapally.

Mr Amodei points out that Artificial Intelligence has broken through the supposed barriers: that it would never form full sentences, then that it would never produce long-form work; that it would never create appealing or convincing images; that it could do bit work but errors would compound if it did sustained work for hours.

“There’s a jagged frontier where the model is way better than humans” in some areas, but surprisingly worse in others. As the frontier expands, AI will “be better at most things”, with humans being complementary in some domains.”

“I don’t think there’s any area where a weakness is going to stay forever.”

Dr Sathanapally says it is hard to regulate a technology that is changing rapidly, with real but uncertain costs and risks. “How do we regulate something in these circumstances?”

Mr Amodei refers to a California law that would have regulated AI ‘frontier” development. It would have required firms to test their models before release – just as the auto industry has crash-test dummies and the like.

The problem was that “The technology has a lot of danger”, but “on the other hand it’s really tough because the models are getting better really quickly” and we don’t know what the models are capable of.

Dr Sathanapally says she was terrified to learn that even the creators of the AI models don’t know how they work.

My observation — in that way, AI is like the human brain – we don’t know for sure how particular inputs will be interpreted, how they will turn into outputs, because the system is so complicated its workings is unknown to us.

“We now understand perhaps 5 or 10% of what goes on inside these models.”

If legislation said you had to understand how your model works, no one would be able to comply.

Anthropic, the firm behind the Artificial Intelligence tool “Claude”, has booked out the Great Hall in Parliament House for a forum. I’m here on behalf of the Australia Institute and interested to hear their arguments about the future of Artificial Intelligence – with a healthy scepticism, of course, since they’re here to sell a product.

Anthropic has tried to distinguish itself from its competitors by taking AI risk more seriously. Compare to social media companies, which have been reckless about the harm their product does – its addictive properties, the way it is used to spread misinformation, the billions of dollars they make from promoting scams.

The initial presentation has two main points: that Claude is “not just a chatbot” but can work autonomously (and run its own cyber espionage attacks) and that AI is getting better exponentially.

They compare it to COVID: one case today, two tomorrow and four the next day does not mean that there will be a few hundred cases by the end of the month. That’s exponential growth, and suggests hundreds of thousands or millions of cases if nothing is done.

There are two dimensions to Artificial Intelligence: how effective it is, and how dangerous it is. There are people in all four quadrants: AI will be very powerful but very benign; it will be mostly useless but its rare uses will be beneficial; it will be mostly useless but cause harm when it is used; or that it will be very powerful and represent an existential threat for the human race.

I think critics of AI often downplay its power, and that risks not taking seriously its dangers as well as its opportunities.  

Where do you stand?

Stop the presses. Angus Taylor has an idea.

He reckons we should join stupid Trump’s stupid war.

Ok, to be fair he said this in a typical Angus way … we “should give full consideration” if the orange idiot makes a request.

He then qualifies this with a brutally honest “I don’t know the answers”.

So, business as usual.

Still, it was worthy of a breathless press conference. Mike Bowers went along.

The Prime Minister, who gives regular press conferences and is appearing at the press club tomorrow, has decided the current global debacle is worthy of a national address.

So, what can we expect?

Will he attack Trump for this insane war … or sit on the fence and gibber about Iran’s nuclear capability?

Will he pull out of AUKUS … or keeping handing over our billions for imaginary submarines?

Will he announce he’s introducing a 25% gas export tax and scrapping the capital gains tax discount … or announce more inquiries, roundtables and white papers … appoint commissioners and special envoys before, inevitably, tinkering around the edges?

My money’s on nothing new. And, for those playing along at home, a sip of tea every time he acknowledges “Australians are doing it tough”.

We’re hearing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will deliver an address to the nation, expected to be broadcast on all tv and radio outlets at 7pm.

If it goes ahead, it’ll be the first such address since Scott Morrison delivered a televised address at the start of the COVID crisis.

Obviously, the focus will be the war in Iran and the impact it’s having on the Australia economy and, more significantly, household budgets. (How’s that interest rate rise looking now, RBA?)

He’s also scheduled to appear at the National Press Club tomorrow.

Australia has more than $11 billion sitting in philanthropic funds that have already received generous tax deductions. Much of that money is intended for public good, but only a small portion is required to reach charities each year.

Last month the Federal Government lifted the minimum distribution rate for these funds from 5 per cent to 6 per cent. Some in the philanthropy sector say that’s too high. From where I sit, working in climate philanthropy, the real question is whether 6 per cent is remotely enough.

Read the full article here.

The Australia Institute has long campaigned to improve the failing Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme.

It is fundamentally flawed, grossly unfair on participants and in desperate need of an overhaul.

Today, the government has agreed to increase its contribution to the training workers must complete, from an annual cap of $300 per worker to $600 per worker.

Many participants are already qualified (many over qualified) when they get here. For example, a fully qualified Samoan nurse still has to do a Cert III course in Aged Care to work in a nursing home here.

Anyway, the government is offering a bit of extra help to workers doing courses in forklift operation, safe food handling, working safely at heights, chemical safety and some other related fields.

It hardly addresses some of the many bigger concerns with the scheme, but it’s something.

The Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, Amanda Rishworth says:

This additional funding for practical training will help PALM workers do their jobs safely and build skills that support their long-term employability.

The Minister for Pacific Island Affairs, Pat Conroy, also gets his name on the press release.

We are responding and listening to the priorities of the Pacific and Timor-Leste to ensure training and skills development is a central feature of the PALM scheme.

Really?

Listen harder.

There are many, much bigger, problems with this scheme which deserve a much more than a press release.

New research from the e61 Institute shows that the capital gains tax (CGT) discounting is distorting the housing market, pushing up prices, and making housing less affordable.

The interaction between negative gearing and the CGT discount is encouraging debt fuelled speculation in property. Attracted to the low tax on capital gains, speculators are rushing into the market, outbidding first home buyers and locking people out of home ownership.

This new research from e61 adds to the mass of evidence that points to the CGT discount as the biggest problem facing housing affordability.

The solution is simple. Scrap the CGT discount that is giving an artificial boost to speculators. This will give first home buyers and other owner-occupiers an advantage. To make housing more affordable we need to prioritise those that want to buy a home to live in.

Mike was at the Health Minister and Treasurers’ press conferences this morning – and captured these images.

Greens Housing spokesperson Senator Barbara Pocock says it’s time to stop cashed-up investors “turbocharging the housing crisis”.

Reacting to today’s new data, which shows house prices have climbed a further 2.1 percent for the first quarter of the year, Senator Pocock says they’re “putting rental affordability and home
ownership out of reach for millions, and fuelling the housing crisis.”

How much more do households have to endure before Labor acts?

Australia’s housing crisis cannot be solved unless we tackle intergenerational inequality. We need solutions to get young people, first home buyers and renters access to affordable and secure housing. That’s why we have secured a Senate inquiry into this.

Massive tax breaks for wealthy property investors are cooking our housing system. Negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts let cashed-up, wealthy investors outbid everyday Australians – and young people, single people, low income workers are the ones paying the price.

For decades, successive governments have turbocharged house prices and driven up rents, putting billions of dollars in the pockets of property investors, property developers and the banks.

Australia’s housing system is a generational lottery, where young people are faced with a lifetime of renting, precarious leases, and a housing market rigged against them. Housing should not be an intergenerational tug-of-war.

We know tax breaks for wealthy property investors are a key driver of the housing crisis and intergenerational inequality but Labor refuses to act. This government has an opportunity to fix the housing crisis – but if they keep dodging real reform, they’ll lock a whole generation out of ever owning a home.

Fresh from a big win last night, the Socceroos have been drawn to play Turkiye, Paraguay and the USA in the World Cup group stage in June.

First up, they’ll meet Turkiye on June 14 (2pm AEST), co-hosts the US on June 20 (5am AEST), then Paraguay at midday on the 26th.

That is, if all goes to plan.

Already a number of countries were pondering a boycott, due to a range of Trump policies – like the ICE violence and migration bans against some participating nations.

That’s even before the orange clown started the war in the Middle East.

Everything this idiot touches turns to sh*t, so sports fans can expect a bumpy ride before and during the tournament.

And Treasurer Jim Chalmers isn’t happy about that:

Australians didn’t choose this war. They’re paying the price for this war at the petrol bowser and more broadly, as well, from an economic point of view, this war can’t end soon enough, but the consequences will linger for longer.

Tax system flexibility

We are announcing new measures in the tax system to give people more flexibility.

The ATO will provide temporary relief for businesses unable to meet their tax obligations due to fuel supply issues, where appropriate.

This will include more generous payment plans, remission of interest and penalties, and support in varying PAYG instalments where there has been a downturn in taxable income.

Some compliance actions will also be limited across the worst affected industries and some debt collection actions may be paused where appropriate.

The ATO will establish a dedicated channel that businesses can use to access these relief provisions, or they can contact their registered tax professional to request access on their behalf.

The ATO will also continue to provide support for individuals experiencing serious financial hardship and will monitor conditions in the lead up to Tax Time.

These are common-sense steps that recognise and respond to the extraordinary circumstances we find ourselves in.

Helping small businesses access credit

We will help small businesses access easier and faster credit by extending the Small Business Responsible Lending Obligation exemption for a further 10 years.

This will ensure small businesses aren’t slugged with additional regulatory burdens and delays when accessing loans.

Finance sector and broader industry support

We welcome commitments from businesses and peak industry bodies to proactively work with their customers, suppliers and employees to respond to pressures in the economy.

Australian banks and non-bank lenders have put in place specialist teams to support small businesses, farmers and communities struggling with cost pressures and supply chain disruptions as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is up in the Blue Room of Parliament House, announcing support for businesses impacted by the fuel crisis.

There will be faster access to credit, an extension of exemptions to the “small business responsible lending obligation” and a range of support from the Australian Tax Office.

Video by Mike Bowers.

The AFR is dutifully reporting gas giants’ fear mongering at the prospect of a gas export tax.

Apparently the idea of paying for the gas they extract – mostly royalty-free – is so scary it might scare off investors.

It hasn’t anywhere else. Even in countries like Norway which have a gas export tax that’s three times bigger than the one which is proposed here.

This is simple economics. If they can make money extracting and selling Australian gas, they will.

Even if that means not taking the gas for free.

As The Australia Institute co-CEO Richard Denniss often says, why should they get special treatment after years of plundering Australia’s natural resources. Bakers pay for their flour. Bricklayers pay for their bricks. Why should gas exporters be any different?

A flat 25% tax on gas exports would mean they pay for what they take. It would give Australians a fair return for an Australian resource. And it would encourage the gas export companies to redirect Australian gas to Australia, which – according to the most basic principles of supply and demand – would put downward pressure on domestic gas prices for Australian consumers.

The government needs to be strong here. Sure, Chevron, Shell, BP and others are powerful multi-national companies. They have teams of lobbyists roaming the corridors of Parliament House. They invite our politicians to watch sporting events in their plush superboxes.

But don’t fall for their lies. They ain’t going anywhere.

Health Minister Mark Butler has this morning launched a new free mental health support check-in service which he says fills a gap in early support for young Australians in crisis.

Video by Mike Bowers.

Interesting report from the CSIRO has just landed in media inboxes:

Marine taxonomists have identified more than 110 fish and invertebrate species from the Coral Sea that are new to science, with that number likely to exceed 200 as more cryptic species are identified.

Brought together by CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, and The Nippon Foundation-Nekton Ocean Census, the taxonomists identified fish and invertebrates collected late last year by scientists on board CSIRO research vessel (RV) Investigator.

They were discovered between 200 to 3,000m deep in the Coral Sea Marine Park, which comprises nearly a million square kilometres of mostly unexplored, deep-water marine environments.

CSIRO Voyage Chief Scientist and shark expert Dr Will White identified four new species during a series of workshops around Australia, two rays (in the genera Dipturus and Urolophus), one deepwater catshark (in the genus Apristurus) and one chimaera (in the genus Chimaera).

“During the voyage it was incredible to observe plenty of unique, deep-sea creatures in locations from seamounts and atolls to unexplored deep reefs,” Dr White said.

The Nippon Foundation-Nekton Ocean Census Head of Science, Dr Michelle Taylor said workshops like these help close knowledge gaps about undocumented marine life worldwide.

“To ensure high-quality data is visible to the global community in real-time, the taxonomists at the workshops input the species data directly into the Ocean Census Biodiversity Data Platform, the world’s first open-access digital gateway for newly discovered marine species,” Dr Taylor said.

“During what were likely the largest taxonomic workshops of marine animals ever undertaken in Australia, other notable discoveries included species of brittlestars, crabs, sea anemones and sponges that are new to science,” Dr White added.

The team on board the voyage also observed a rich diversity of marine life in stunning new imagery from RV Investigator’s deep-towed camera, including capturing footage of the rare sand tiger shark (Odontaspis ferox), a deepwater relative of the well-known grey nurse shark (Carcharias taurus).

“These incredible discoveries, made possible by the impressive deep-water survey capabilities of RV Investigator, reveal the extraordinary life in our oceans and are crucial for protecting Australia’s marine biodiversity,” Dr White said.

Biodiversity samples from the voyage are now lodged in collections around the country including CSIRO’s Australian National Fish Collection and State museums.

This research was supported by a grant of sea time on RV Investigator from the CSIRO Marine National Facility which is supported by the Australian Government’s National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS). It includes support from Parks Australia, Bush Blitz and The Nippon Foundation-Nekton Ocean Census, and in collaboration with a network of leading museums, universities and research institutes.

As we reported during Question Time yesterday, the Coalition made a big deal of Don Farrell‘s press club address on Monday, talking about increasing the size of parliament.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese batted away questions, saying he was comfortable with the size of the current parliament.

The way I see it, he chose his words carefully.

To be satisfied with the current arrangement does not rule out future changes.

Anyway, here’s how AAP is reporting the debate so far:

Dominic Giannini, AAP

Anthony Albanese has expressed satisfaction at the current number of MPs despite an ongoing review into whether parliament needs more representation after the coalition came out against any expansion.

A parliamentary committee examining the 2025 election is also reviewing whether Australia needs more MPs as the population increases and representatives are responsible for an increasing number of constituents.

Each electorate covers about 120,000 voters, and thousands more constituents not on the ballot.

The coalition will oppose any move to increase the number of MPs in federal parliament, saying it will cost taxpayers too much when Australians were dealing with cost of living pressures.

Labor hasn’t released any policies on the issue, and Special Minister for State Don Farrell has said he would wait for the committee’s findings before pressing ahead with any changes.

The prime minister branded questioning from Opposition Leader Angus Taylor in parliament about the issue extraordinary at a time when there was war in the Middle East and significant economic impacts stemming from it.

“I am satisfied with the current number of seats in the House of Representatives, that is 150 …  with 12 senators from each state,” he told parliament on Tuesday, although didn’t expressly rule out any changes.

Mr Taylor put the figure for the expansion at $620 million, including salaries, staff, travel and office costs based on an additional 24 lower house MPs and 14 senators, as calculated by the Parliamentary Budget Office.

“Now is the time to tighten the belt, not expand the bureaucracy,” he said.

A spokesperson for Senator Farrell said the only party concentrating on the issue or having policies costed was the coalition, as the government remained focused on fuel security and cost of living relief.

“This is clearly not about the policy or issues. It’s about the internal audition for attention in the coalition,” the spokesperson said.

Labor can still pass laws increasing the parliament without coalition support, with a supportive crossbench in the Senate and a majority in the lower house, but Senator Farrell has signalled he wanted cross-party support.

The committee has been presented with evidence of the need to expand parliament to keep up with demand from constituents, as well as the need for fairer representation for the territories, which only have two senators compared to each state’s 12.

Independent ACT senator David Pocock said the point of the upper house was to balance representation between bigger and smaller states and give the latter a more equal voice.

For example, Tasmania has 576,000 people – as at September 30, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics – and 12 senators, while the ACT has 486,000 people and two upper house members.

Today, private health insurance premiums are rising by 4.4%.

This is a reminder that – through the PHI rebate – taxpayers subsidise private health insurance.

The total cost of the PHI rebate is about $12 billion a year. This figure comprises the rebate itself ($7.5 billion in 2024-25 and almost a quarter of health funds’ combined revenue of $31 billion). It also includes the direct revenue foregone through the rebate ($1.5 billion in 2024-25) and exemptions from the Medicare Levy Surcharge – estimated at $2.5 billion in 2015-16, thus likely to be about $3 billion in today’s dollars.

Since the wealthy benefit the most, this is middle class welfare.

Here’s how Mike Bowers caught yesterday’s Question Time and a couple of interesting moments afterwards.

Remember the national outcry over the cost of building the Royal Adelaide Hospital? The state-of-the-art, 800-bed, environmentally-friendly hospital cost over $2 billion to build and is still considered the most expensive building in Australia.

Well, the South Australian government plans to spend even more on the new Adelaide Women’s and Children’s Hospital. It’s projected to cost over $3 billion, which critics say is an ‘eye-watering’ total.

But a $3 billion price tag for a new hospital pales in comparison to the billions Australia loses by not taxing gas exports. 

By not having a tax on gas exports, Australia loses $350 million a week, all while multinational gas companies extract Australian gas and ship the profits offshore. If the Commonwealth implemented a 25% gas export tax in 2022, it could have collected over $68 billion.

To put that into perspective, that’s enough to build 22 new state-of-the-art, $3 billion hospitals from scratch.  That’s a new hospital every 4.5 weeks.

The real eye-watering cost isn’t how much is spent   on building hospitals; it’s how much is lost from not taxing gas companies.

Watch the video in full, here:

Good morning.

It’s the final parliamentary sitting day until the week of the May 12 budget.

With the government now supporting a Senate Inquiry into taxing gas, Independent MP Sophie Scamps has upped the ante with an impassioned address to parliament after question time yesterday.

The halving of the fuel excise comes into force today yet motorists are being warned prices could rise before the cut “trickles down” to motorists. This has Coles and Woolies’ fake discounts written all over it.

Funny how, when the price of oil rises, petrol prices go up overnight. Yet when prices improve, it takes forever to be passed on to the consumer. Just like interest rates. The Reserve Bank puts them up and, pow, you’ve got an email that you’ll be paying more within days.

Meanwhile, the idiot who caused all this is now telling allies to “get your own oil”.

Let’s get into it.