The Point Live: Ley expected to follow Nationals on net zero to extend leadership, RBA holds rates. As it happened

A misleading attack ad against a candidate in an upcoming by-election has reminded everyone that Queensland does not have truth in political advertising laws, prompting the Courier-Mail to editorialise:

“Voters should not have to cop lies”

Ahead of the Queensland state election, now Premier David Crisafulli promised to look into such laws, saying “heaven knows we need it”. The Labor Government was less committal, although ironically in opposition they are now pursuing the issue.

Today Premier Crisafulli refused to commit to implementing truth in political advertising laws, saying:

“I don’t want robust debate to be shelved under the guise of preventing, particularly in opposition, from being able to challenge a government of the day.”

But why would it?

South Australia has had truth in political advertising laws for forty years. They are respected, popular on all sides of politics and have improved the political culture. They are specifically designed to protect robust debate.

The great strength of Australian federation is that a good idea can spread from one state to another.

Indeed, as I wrote last month in The Point, the SA Liberals are copying Queensland Labor’s fifty-cent public transport policy – so why shouldn’t the Queensland Liberal–Nationals copy South Australia’s truth in political advertising laws?

A bet on the horses today is the only time many Australians will gamble. But this doesn’t change the reality that, collectively, Australians are the biggest gamblers in the world, wagering a total $254 billion in 2023-24. Australians also lose more to gambling than anyone else in the world – $32 billion in 2023-24, which is more than the $21 billion lost in all the casinos in Las Vegas put together. And the problem is getting worse. Since 2019, average losses to gambling in Australia have increased by 25%, and the average Aussie gambler now losses about $2500 a year. 

Thanks to the proliferation of gaming apps and the ubiquity of ads for sports betting, online gambling has become an area of particular concern. So much so that a 2023 Parliamentary inquiry into online gambling and gambling advertising (the Murphy Review) recommended a ban on all forms of advertising for online gambling. Australia Institute polling research shows widespread support for this kind of initiative. Three in four Australians (76%) support a total ban on gambling ads phased in over three years, and four in five support banning gambling ads on social media and online (81%) and in stadiums and on players’ uniforms (79%). But none of the recommendations of the Murphy Review have been taken up.

If one of your kids wants to go to the beach for summer holidays and the other wants to go bushwalking would a mountain biking holiday be proof that you got the balance right? Welcome to the topsy-turvy land of Labor logic, where legislation that disappoints everyone must be a step in the right direction.

Like a donut, there is nothing in the centre of Australian politics. The fact that the Greens want to stop native forest logging and the Nationals want to speed up land clearing by farmers is not proof that any legislation Labor drafts must fit in the “sensible centre.”

Back when Tanya Plibersek was an optimistic new Environment Minister in the Albanese Government’s first term she was full of big promises. When she launched her Threatened Species Action Plan she stated:

“The Action Plan has ambitious targets, which include preventing any new extinctions of plants and animals.”

And went on to declare:

“I will not shy away from difficult problems or accept environmental decline and extinction as inevitable.”

But while we will never know for sure if Plibersek was serious at the time, we do know for certain that her Cabinet and her Prime Minister had net-zero interest in putting the protection of endangered species ahead of the profits of polluters.

You can read the rest of Richard article, here.

Liberal MPs are now being asked what they would do in a leadership challenge, so that’s never a good sign for the Libs.

Might be time to put the lettuce out. The Liberal’s Liz Truss officially has a timer set on her leadership.

For the record, when asked, Andrew Bragg said:

Well, I support the Leader.

That’ll fix it.

Not sure how many more times the Coalition is going to let this man rule their policy direction, despite the electoral, societal and moral cost. Guess the limit does not exist.

In case you were worried though, Barnaby says he is “much happier” with the Nats. Seems all those ‘questions’ he had yesterday have been answered.

In their anger over a Senate “stunt”, Labor leaders revealed more than they might have intended about how the major parties work with each other.

For months the Senate has demanded that the Labor Government release a report into jobs-for-mates appointments. Last Thursday, the Senate decided that if the government wasn’t going to be transparent in this area, the Senate would demand transparency in other areas. Independent Senator David Pocock’s motion to add five “non-government” questions to Senate Question Time passed with Greens and Liberal–National support.

In response, Labor threatened to cut pay for some Liberal–National MPs in the House of Representativesby taking away their deputy chair positions.

What do deputy chairs in the lower house have to do with a motion in the upper house?

Only that Labor has control of the lower house, so that’s where it can make the Opposition feel pain.

The major parties divvy up positions and privileges between themselves. They might be in government today, but Labor expects that eventually the boot will be on the other foot. These positions come with power, but also higher pay. Each major party shares with the other.

Until one party breaks the arrangement – as Labor would be doing if they stripped Liberal–National MPs of deputy chair positions.

Regardless of whether Labor follows through, Coalition senators might already be asking what the Senate can do to make life harder for the government. After all, a National senator may not be too concerned that a few Liberals in the House are in danger of losing bonus pay. And the threat that “We’ll do the same to you in government” falls flat when government looks so far out of reach for the Coalition.

By inspiring Liberals, Nationals, Greens and independents to question Senate customs that benefit the government of the day, Labor may have opened Pandora’s box.

• Imagine if the President of the Senate were from an independent or minor party, instead of being chosen from the governing party.
• Imagine if the eight committees that scrutinise legislation were chaired by someone from the Opposition or the crossbench, instead of a government senator.The reports might be more collaborative and probing with a chair from another party.
• Imagine if the Senate called ministers from the House of Representatives to give evidence at Senate Estimates, instead of letting them send a senator as delegate.
• Imagine if the Senate refused to vote on government legislation until the government has produced all the information the Senate has ordered.
• Imagine if the Senate sanctioned government ministers who ignored the Senate’s orders, as Labor has tried before.

The Constitution gives executive government (the prime minister and ministers) enormous leeway, but also gives Parliament the discretion to constrain that power. Last week the Senate made a small but meaningful correction against government secrecy.

If the government refuses to comply, there is much more the Senate could do.

As we know at 2:30 this afternoon the Reserve Bank will announce that it has kept interest rate on hold.

The more interesting thing will be its release of the November Statement on Monetary Policy. This is a statement the RBA puts out every three months and contains a summary of what is going on around the world and here in Australia as well as its forecasts for the next couple years.

So, we’ll be giving you the info on that as soon as it comes out.

What is also interesting is how the market has changed its expectations of a rate cut.

On 15 October, the day before the September unemployment figures came out showing a rate of 4.5%, the market rated it about a 44% chance that the RBA would cut rates today. After the unemployment figures came out it jumped to a 76% chance.

As the days went on though, investors likely remembered the RBA hates cutting rates, and so the odds drifted down a bit. But then the September CPI figures were released and the chances sunk like a stone – down to 39% and then 7%.

It highlights that the market (and the RBA to be honest) gets more spooked by a surprise inflation figure than a surprise unemployment rate – and that the RBA will do everything it can to keep inflation below 3% and very little to keep unemployment from going above 4.5% (and nothing at all to stop it going above 4%)

Independent ACT senator David Pocock will move a motion to debate this in the senate:

Barnaby Joyce is still pretending he doesn’t know what solar panels are. He is taking a leaf out of a Reform UK politician who is making a name for himself at the moment by threatening to lay down in front of bulldozers and stop the UK’s biggest solar farm from being built. Joyce is using the same arguments, and pretending that you can only have one use for land – that a renewable project on a piece of land will mean that there is no way you can run animals on it. That is not true, but between his made up claims of ‘locking up land’ and his made up use of false numbers on the cost, this is the new battle ground.

Mike Bowers recorded some of this morning’s bonker’s doorstop

Multiple people have been arrested as a protest outside a weapons expo erupts into chaos, with demonstrators forcing their way through a police barrier.

Hundreds gathered at Sydney’s Darling Harbour on Tuesday to protest the Indo Pacific International Maritime Exposition, a three-day event billed as the “premier forum connecting Australian and international defence, industry, government, academia, and technology leaders”.

The protest, organised by the Palestine Action Group, grew during the early morning before police began deploying pepper spray about 8am in an attempt to break up the surging crowd.

Eight people were arrested by mid-morning as police struggled to hold the crowd back.

“Police will have a presence at the assemblies and will work with protesters to ensure there are no breaches of the peace and there is minimal impact to the community,” a spokeswoman said.

Riot police have been deployed, protecting an entrance to the expo at the International Convention Centre Sydney, about 100 metres from where demonstrators had gathered.

Much of the protest focused on the NSW government’s role in hosting the convention amid the conflict in Gaza.

Exhibitors include Israeli weapons manufacturers and other firms supplying that nation’s military.

“Chris Minns, blood on your hands,” attendees chanted, referring to the NSW premier.

Mr Minns told ABC radio he was unaware of the circumstances surrounding the protests.

He added he was not responsible for invitations to the event and had no input into decisions regarding Australia’s relationships with foreign countries or arms manufacturers.

“That’s the Commonwealth government’s responsibility, it’s not mine,” he said.

“What I would say is that they’re not selling nuclear weapons down at Darling Harbor this weekend. It’s a maritime conference relating to the navy.”

The protest comes a year after similar scenes in Melbourne, when thousands of demonstrators clashed with police and attendees at a major defence and weapons expo.

Protesters lit multiple fires near the expo, blocked traffic and climbed on top of a truck.