The Point Live: Australia missing emissions targets, Nationals pretend to care Barnaby Joyce's has left the Nationals. As it happened.

They have to do this under legislation Labor passed, and it gives you an idea of where we are at with meeting our targets.

We are not meeting out targets.

Here is the statement from the CCA:

Australia has just seen its hottest ever year, with mean temperatures during the 12 months to June 2025 exceeding the previous record by more than 0.25 °C.
Globally, 2024 was also the hottest year on record and marked the first year with average temperatures topping 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels – the threshold agreed under the Paris Climate Agreement. These milestones underscore the urgent need to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The Climate Change Authority’s 4th Annual Progress Report, released today, called for faster emissions reductions and stronger adaptation measures to keep Australia on track for a safe and resilient future.
The pace of emission cuts must double to meet our legislated 2030 target of reducing 2005-level carbon pollution by 43%. To reach Australia’s newly set 2035 goal – a 62-70% reduction – the rate of cuts will need to triple by the early 2030s.
Our report found the electricity and energy sectors made the fastest gains, improving the prospects for other sectors of the economy to decarbonise as they electrify.

Australia’s emissions fell by 10 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent in the year to June 2025, faster than the average over the past 5 years of 8 Mt CO2 -e reductions,’ said Matt Kean, Chair of the Climate Change Authority.
No other year has had such a drop apart from the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic – 10 million tonnes – a promising development. However, to hit our goals, the reduction rate will have to accelerate to 18 MtCO2 -e per year between now and 2030, and between 20-25 Mt CO2 -e per year from now to 2035. That means speeding up approvals for clean energy projects and infrastructure to keep pace with the transition. The electricity and energy sector contributed half the nation’s emissions reductions over the past year. And that sector’s contribution will expand as more renewable energy sources are switched on when ageing coal-fired power plants bow out.

Fortunately, the ongoing plunge in the price of solar photovoltaics and lithium batteries –
combined with government policies like the Capacity Investment Scheme and measures
to strengthen electricity security – is driving fresh demand at the household, business and
utility scale. To lock in these gains and near-term targets, wind generation must grow rapidly,
supported by faster approvals and benefit-sharing with communities. The technological tide is overwhelming, with low-carbon generation contributing almost all the new energy generation added worldwide last year. With the growing competitiveness of heat pumps, induction cookers, electric vehicles and other energy efficient devices, we can expect sectors of the economy beyond the
power industry to lower their carbon emissions. And with Australia’s abundant sunshine, wind and rich mineral resources, few nations stand to benefit as much from this global transition we must all make. Now is to get on with it and work together to ensure a fair and fast transition for a cleaner,
more prosperous future.

The latest “Private New Capital Expenditure” (Capex) figures released today are the first of a series of data out over the next week that leads up to the GDP figures next Wednesday.

These cover business investment in either building and structures or machinery and equipment.

In the September quarter total new capex rose 6.4% in volume terms (ie accounting for inflation), and non-mining capex went up 8.6%. This meant overall new capita expenditure was at the highest level since March 2015, when the mining construction boom was about to end:

What we are seeing at the moment is not a boom in mining capex, but non-ming, and specifically Info media and IT, and even more specifically datacentres for AI. Over the past year new Capax in the Infor media and IT industry accounted for 64% of the total increase in capex across all industries. That’s pretty surprising given that industry is pretty small – usually accounting for about 6% of all investment.

But what is happening now is very unusual:= – a doubling on investment compared to 2 years ago

So anyone wondering if governments have time to wait before thinking about AI an the impact on energy supply and use and all other manner of issues, the answer is no.

So there is a bit on. So far this morning:

The government announced it had agreed to a deal with the Greens to get its environmental laws through the parliament – fossil fuel mining gets the status quo approvals treatment, water trigger remains in, minister can still scuttle projects, forestry exemptions to be reviewed in 18 months, land clearing gets harder. Nothing really for climate, no big save for the environment, but not as bad as it could have been.

The Coalition, which refused to seriously negotiate on these laws are now very sad and bitching and sulking like it is an Olympic sport.

The fossil fuel industry is sad.

The farmers’ federation is sad.

These are not bad things – they were both too happy with the original laws.

The Greens have won concessions for local content with the government agreeing to regulate the big streaming platforms.

Malcolm Turnbull got a portrait and had a bit to say about the demise of the Liberal party (he’s not too fussed)

The banking regulator has changed the rules around lending to make it harder for property investors to get loans, with tightening around debt to income ratios.

This has been set to about six times debt to income, which is unlikely to impact first home buyers but will impact people buying their 20th house

Barnaby Joyce is about to announce he is leaving the Nationals for One Nation.

No one really cares

Emissions data for the June quarter is out and we are wayyyy off track for meeting our 2030 targets

Everyone is pretty sure he is going to One Nation and look, sure. Does it matter? No. Will it give Barnaby more attention? Yes. Are there bigger things in the world? Absolutely.

Sussan Ley and Malcolm Turnbull had a ‘very brief’ encounter at the portrait unveiling which observers described as “more frosty than the Arctic”. That would be on Ley’s side – Turnbull is at that happy place in post-political life where he’s been proved right on more than one occasion so he gets to just swan in with an erudite ‘told you so’ when the mood strikes him.

Turnbull was also the leader who sacked Ley from the frontbench after she charged tax payers for a work trip to the Gold Coast where she also finalised the sale of an investment property. She never quite got over that one.

For the record, Turnbull says they just said hi. He is the epitome of not fussed. Moisturised, in his lane, hydrated.

The June quarter greenhouse gas emissions have been released and you know they are good news because they were released on a Thursday morning, and not Friday afternoon.

One of the weird things about the greenhouse gas emission figures is that the government can release them when they want – so long as they do it within 5 months of the quarter being measured covered. Today’s release covers the June quarter, so they had till the end of November to release it. In the past this has meant releasing the bad news around 4pm Friday afternoon. 

But good news cannot wait! And in the June quarter annual emissions fell 2.1% over the past year, and in the June quarter there was a nice 0.9% drop, driven mostly by falls in electricity and fugitive emissions.

The drop in fugitive emissions is mostly from “reductions in natural gas venting emissions from new carbon capture and storage activities and a decline in production from underground coal mining.”

So yeah – less gas and coal is good, who knew?

The drop in electricity emissions came off the back of less coal and gas emissions and more wind and solar. Again, who would’ve guessed less coal and gas is good?

The overall picture is nice, but as with all things climate change, we need a bit of a broader look.. Yes, the 2.1% fall emissions is to be celebrated, but even if we take the trend of emissions since June 2023 (which was when they peaked under the Albanese govt), the pace is still far too slow to reach any of the government’s (very weak) targets:

That said, if the pace of emissions falls over the past year keep up, they will at least be chance to get there.

So yes, good news. But we should always remember to count the right things. The government will be saying that emissions are currently 28% below 2005 levels, but we should always remember that is because 2005 was a big year for land clearing, especially in Queensland. If we exclude land clearing (like every other nation does) our emissions falls since 2005 is just 4%

So good news, but long way to go, and while we keep approving new coal and gas mines, we need to also remember that while we might not be counting the emissions from gas and coal done overseas, they very much contribute to global emissions.  

A new secret committee will consider AUKUS and Australia’s military engagements according to the Guardian. This move is consistent with past AUKUS practices, shrouded in secrecy, even though this policy represents the biggest transfer of sovereign wealth in Australia’s history.

When Australia adopted AUKUS, there was no review from DFAT or Treasury, no parliamentary inquiry. It didn’t even go to cabinet.

Now the Labor Government has created a new committee consisting only of Labor and Coalition MPs, excluding the cross-bench and the Greens and continuing a culture of poor transparency.

Australia Institute polling research from November 2025, shows 37% of Australians don’t know if AUKUS makes Australia safer, an increase of 6% from polling just three months earlier.  

With so much uncertainty, Australia needs a real inquiry, not a rubber stamp from major party MPs.

You can join more than 30,000 people calling for a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS here.

Here is the Coalition refuse and bitch in full swing:

The Albanese Government’s deal with the Greens to force its flawed EPBC reforms through the Senate confirms the Labor-Greens alliance is back, locking Australia into a chaotic regime that will hurt jobs, productivity and investment.

At a time when project pipelines are tightening, productivity has fallen, and competition for global capital is fierce, Labor has chosen a model that makes it harder to approve major projects, harder to employ Australians and harder for regional communities to grow.

Under Labor and the Greens, gas and critical minerals projects that are essential to Australia’s energy security, industrial base and global competitiveness will be pushed into the approvals slow lane.

And it won’t stop there. The impacts of this deal will flow straight through to the construction industry, pushing up the cost of building materials and making it even harder for Australians to build and buy homes.

Labor’s EPBC package was already unworkable. By locking in a Greens-backed model, the Government has cemented uncertainty, entrenched excessive regulatory power in an unaccountable EPA, and guaranteed longer delays for project approvals across the economy. 

These reforms also ignore clear recommendations of the Samuel Review which called for clear rules, reduced duplication and faster, more certain approvals. 

The Coalition was constructive at every step, offering sensible amendments and a practical pathway to deliver genuine streamlining and improved environmental outcomes. 

Our approach would have fixed bad laws and turned them into genuine reforms that lifted productivity, supported jobs and attracted investment.

Industry, and business agreed substantial changes were vitally needed to make the legislation workable.

The Coalition will oppose the Labor Greens destructive deal and fight for an environmental system that protects our natural heritage while supporting jobs, investment and the communities that rely on a strong economy.

My Guardian column has a look at the latest inflation figures that came out yesterday.  

They showed a jump in the growth of average prices from 3.6% to 3.8%. But they also indicate just how much our economy is caught up in the ramifications of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, which sent gas prices higher – and with it our electricity prices.

Electricity was the biggest driver of inflation over the past year, but in October electricity prices fell 10.2%.

This confusion is due to the interaction of electricity rebates and inflation.

In July 2023, the Albanese government introduced rebates to protect against the increase in prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In July 2024, the states began to get involved as well. And October last year saw the largest impact of the federal and state government rebates on electricity prices. But these rebates did not last, and over the past 12 months they have begun to be unwound – and so prices began to rise. Then in August they were extended across a number of areas – and so electricity prices fell again.

But they remain well above where they were in October last year.

The problem for Australia is that since the opening of the Gladstone LNG terminal, gas prices on the eastern seaboard have been linked with the world price of gas. Because Russia is a major producer of gas, its invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions of Russian gas and other trade sent world gas prices soaring – doubling from January 2022 to September that year.

And gas is an expensive way to generate electricity – much more so than renewables, but under the National Energy Market the most expensive generation determines the prices. And so electricity prices follow gas:

So have all those big gas prices that led to big gas exports and profits also led to a big jump in PRRT revenue? That would be the biggest “Yeah, nah” in history.

Read more about it here

Malcolm Turnbull is at peace with the demise of his political party. He says:

People have said, ‘well, you know, it might be having a rough patch, but of course, it’ll be around forever’. I think there’s real questions about that now.

And I mean, it’s not just [me] – you guys [the media] are saying that, there are plenty of commentators saying that. I mean, Andrew Hastie has been making that point.

So they’re people, whether they’re left, right or in the middle, raising that question. I mean, they have got themselves into a into a real sort of a miasma, I think, of that is again focused on issues.

I mean, look, I was Allegra Spender is here, you know, the member for Wentworth, my local member and I mean, she has more to say as one crossbencher, about tax policy, economic policy, productivity, than the Coalition does.

That’s crazy, right?

The Liberal Party should be focused on economic growth, you know, driving the economy, promoting entrepreneurialism business, those are the things that should be talking about, not this cultural war stuff