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Inspiration just pouring out of the walls here:

How is the RBA justifying the increase in rates? Let’s look at what the Monetary Policy Board had to say.

The RBA acknowledged what those who watch the figures closely have been saying, much of the recent uptick in inflation is from temporary factors. But they go on to say that they are worried about the increase in private demand. The board said:

“While part of the pick-up in inflation is assessed to reflect temporary factors, it is evident that private demand is growing more quickly than expected”

They further explain that the increase in demand is from household spending and investment.

The first thing to note is that the increase in household spending has not been across the board. Many households are struggling. The increase has come from a relatively small number of households. Those who own their home outright, that is those that don’t rent or have a mortgage.

But the reference to an increase in investment caught my eye. This has been driven by a massive increase in spending on electronic and communication equipment for data centres. Effectively the RBA is blaming the increase in demand, in part, on investment in artificial intelligence.

Those data centres are not just going to suck up electricity and water, they are now also increasing interest rates.

Another odd part in their reasoning was when the board wrote:

“More recently, the exchange rate, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen following a rise in market expectations for the cash rate.”

What does that mean? The market was expecting the RBA to increase interest rates, so they started betting on a rate rise. This pushed up things like the exchange rate and government bond yields (interest rates).

This is just a fancy way of saying we increased interest rates because the market thought we were going to increase interest rates.

This is a hasty decision that is going to put more pressure on households with a mortgage. The RBA should have waited.

I mean, what an inspiring bunch! Who doesn’t feel democracy start to hum within their veins seeing this lot.

Ley is feeling SO inspired:

Every single one of my team is focused on the mission that I have outlined, that Ted O’Brien has outlined, and that all of my team is behind. Focused 100 per cent on Australians. I know that whenever we come together in whatever format that the media chooses to remark upon, we are talking about Australians and how important it is for them that we come to Canberra to fight for what they believe in, what they need and what they deserve, and most importantly what they’re not getting from this Albanese Labor government.

True story. Here is the very inspiring leadership exchange from the current Liberal party leaders:

Ley:

The church service that starts the parliamentary year is always a reminder to all of us on the hill that we work for the Australian people. They send us here from all parts of this beautiful country to work for them, to understand what their lives are like, and to represent them. 

So I’m pleased to be joined by Deputy Ted O’Brien and other colleagues as we make the case very strongly in this parliamentary sitting that the Albanese government is a government that failed to keep Australians safe over summer and has failed on the economy. Because we heard from the Prime Minister that the interest rate rises of the past were all in the past, and that we were coming to clearer times, better times, and times that would back in Australians, but that is not the case. Unfortunately, right now Australians are struggling even more with the cost of living crisis. This is Labor’s cost of living crisis. When Labor spends, prices rise and Australians pay. I’ve been speaking to a lot of mums, and I know my colleagues have and as they look at the expenses of going back to school last week and this week, and they’re staring straight down the barrel of possibly more interest rate rises, that’s $21,000 more out of pocket for the average mortgage holder since Labor came to government. And this is a Prime Minister who said that life would be ‘cheaper’ under him. This is a Prime Minister who said that we would not have more interest rate rises and that we would have cost of living relief for Australians. It is so clearly not the case. So my team and I are determined and focused only on the Australian people, on speaking up for them, on fighting hard for them every single day and holding this awful Labor government to account. Ted.

Ted O’Brien:

 Thank you very much Sussan, for your ongoing leadership. 

Sussan Ley is back again and asks the same question the opposition have been asking all question time:

Sheina Gutnick, whose father was tragically killed in Australia’s deadliest antisemitic attack in Bondi publicly wrote, and I quote, “Australia did not fail quietly. It failed loudly, repeatedly and with full knowledge. It’s government watched hatred grow and chose to do nothing. They minimised it, excused it, they dismissed Jewish warnings as noise”. Prime Minister, these are not my work, these are the words of the victims’ families. Can the prime Minister finally humbled himself and just say sorry?

Albanese has apologised, but not in the way Ley wants him to (which is essentially to take responsibility for the attack)

Albanese:

I met with Sheina yesterday and spoke with her last week, spoke with her community leaders, she is from a community in Melbourne, on a regular basis as well, a rabbi who was a good friend of Member for Macnamara. I met her husband, it was a very warm meeting.

There was a very warm and generous meeting and can I say. The contrast between some of the rhetoric that those opposite have engaged in and the warmth and generosity of this grieving community has been quite extraordinary.

I have been into homes, into synagogues, had meetings, had engagements with small groups, one-on-one, with groups of up to 30, first meeting I was in homes by 16 December for the first time. Since then I must say a number of people I regard now have become friends because of the extent of their engagement. I visited people in hospital. I have engaged with people in every forum and there is no-one who has asked to speak to me who has not had a meeting.

And at the same time what we have had is allowed shouting. We had a shouting that the Parliament had to be resumed before Christmas, but then when we resumed it, we were resuming at too soon. We had shouting that we had to introduce legislation based upon the anti-Semitism Envoy report, but when we produced it they opposed it. They opposed it.

Ley: My question was very pointed. Can the Prime Minister finally humble himself and just say sorry for failing to act.

Milton Dick is now annoyed: The Prime Minister spoke directly about the person that you asked him about. He couldn’t be more directly relevant when he described what had happened. I can’t make him do what you wanted in the answer but I can en sure he is being directly relevant and he has been completely directly relevant to the question that he was asked.

Albanese:

Mr Speaker, you don’t have to bang electric drums to show you’re concerned. What you have to do is to show respect and engage in an orderly, respectful way.

We have responded in that way in the meetings with the Jewish community. We didn’t wait. We have appointed…the Special Envoy to Combat Antisemitism. Within days we began the legislation. We’d already appointed of course the National Student Ombudsman. We have appointed David Gonski to look through the education schemes.

We’ve been going through the envoy’s report. One by one, and a key element of it was vilification and they opposed it and they wouldn’t of support it. And that’s why then together with the Greens were there. At the same time – at the same time, those opposite, the gap between what they’ve called for and what has occurred is remarkable. They said they had a package of legislation on 5 January. Where is it? Where is it? No-one has seen it. No-one has seen it.

The parliament is a bit all over the place today. The focus is on the mining-friendly environmental laws, which Labor wants done by the end of the sitting. It is willing to make the parliament sit until Friday if it has to (and there has been talk of also sitting next week, but that seems unlikely at this point).

For all the talk of speaking to the Greens, Labor’s focus is on getting the Coalition across the line. It doesn’t want this legislation to have any more environmental protections – that is what got the industry and industry-captured states like WA all upset last time – so now it is all about getting the Coalition to agree to pass the legislation, without adding TOO much more for business, which would absolutely tank what is left of Labor’s environmental credentials.

So the parliament is in a bit of a flux at the moment – everyone is trying to work out who will blink first.

Ahead of question time, Mike Bowers caught Anthony Albanese arriving too late for a division and being locked out of the chamber (if you don’t get there before the speaker says LOCK THE DOORS, you’re out, no matter who you are)

Bob Katter, who is the longest serving parliamentarian in Australia, having chalked up 50 years between his state and federal careers, has received an official portrait.

He had threatened to wear his inflatable pig suit for the unveiling. Mike Bowers tells me he did not.

These ceremonies go forever, so we will bring you something from when the portrait is officially de-cur

Tanya Plibersek also addressed men directly in her statement:

When students made clear that universities remain places where one in six students experienced sexual harassment and one in 20 experienced sexual assault, we established the National higher education code to prevent and respond to gender based violence, mandating that universities prevent the violence driving progress takes action from us all,

And very importantly, it will take action from men.

The recent 10 to men study found that one in three men reported using violence. I find those figures truly shocking. It’s going to take leadership from men to change those numbers.

The same 10 to men study showed that men who grew up with positive father figure, role models who expressed, affection, were 48%, less likely to become perpetrators of family violence in adulthood.

Men, especially fathers, are powerful role models for the children and young people in their lives. My plea to you is this, show through your behavior every day what it is to be strong, to be loving, to be gentle, make your home a place that is safe and help build a society that is safe for women and children.

Be a role model raise boys and girls who are strong and confident and free from violence.

Sussan Ley is back:

As a self-described new minister, over the last two days, the minister has informed this house it is not appropriate for the Minister to express empathy. The email that alerted the Minister’s office to the escalating crisis needed no response from the Minister or her office, and the coalition’s request to double the penalty to Telcos who let Australians down is confusing when will the Minister step up and take responsibility and restore trust in the 000 network for Australians?

Which is a very bad faith interpretation of what Wells said in her previous answer. Wells said she asked about the “correct process for dealing with families in this situation” and was advised it was emergency services.

The opposition absolutely have a point with the questions they are asking about Wells’ reaction to the failure. But adding on cheap politics like this just cheapens the whole issue and does nothing to actually create change.

It’s bad enough that Milton Dick has to step in:

Look, I want to make all questions relevant, but simply give opinions, you know, it would help the health of any member, including Leader of the Opposition, could perhaps read something from Hansard or a newspaper article rather than just giving an opinion about what you think someone has said or hasn’t said. I don’t have every single word that anyone has said in the whole house. It is very hard for me then do know exactly what that there are or not. Trying to work with everyone here so perhaps moving forward for the rest of the week if people could just be a little more accurate with their questions in terms of what has been said, that would be greatly I think for all members and also ministers to be accurate with their responses as well. I hope everyone gets the point.

Hello and welcome back to the mid-week parliament sitting, which also happens to be the day of the Midwinter Ball. What is that? Well, if you don’t know – congratulations! What is it like having a life?

The Midwinter Ball is a parliament event hosted by the press gallery (of which I am a member but having been forced to attend by work previously, would rather spend my evening cleaning the toe jam from an entire retirement village than attend again). It started in 2000 and raises money for charity, with MPs having to be invited to the ball by news networks or those who have been deemed special enough unicorns to buy a table. The event is held in the parliament Great Hall and is limited to 640 people – people have to apply for a table/tickets and then have that application approved by the press gallery ball committee. Then it is your usual work dinner, but worse – the prime minister and opposition leader give a speech, there is a very torturous package of journalist bloopers shown, mostly featuring the friends of those who have put it together, occasionally some comedy and then some dancing. It goes for hours and in this time of falling trust in media is probably something that should be retired, given its main feature is journalists cavorting with the power they are meant to be holding to account.

Political journalist legend Laurie Oakes never went, so he could report on it. You may remember a few things leaking out at times – most memorably in modern history, the Donald Trump impression Malcolm Turnbull did as part of his speech. After that there was a very big debate about what should be reported and what shouldn’t be reported, which memorably included some journalists complaining they should be allowed “at least one night off” which, yes, of course – but not when you are in a room full of lobbyists, corporate titans and politicians. The end result was the speeches from the leaders are now broadcast, and there are still some who complain that has taken the ‘fun’ out of the night because the leaders are more circumspect in what they say.

The ball has come under fire for accepting sponsorship from fossil fuel companies, and also the big banks (around the time of the banking royal commission) and given that journalists are supposed to be reporting without fear or favour on all these industries, and people, the idea of the ball is not just dated, it is also impacting people’s trust in the media. All the big bosses from the media companies come to Canberra for the evening, but it is mostly for the access – there is time during the ball for chats, either with the minister/shadow minister invited at your table, or during the break in entertainment/speeches/hosting which is set aside for mingling. And that is also something the lobbyists/corporate heads etc can take advantage of. So for an industry which literally reports on payment for access, and the ridiculous per-head events political parties host for fundraising, holding one yourself, even if it is for charity seems…icky.

So that is your lesson in the Midwinter Ball. It will mean that the parliament tries to keep all its business in the daylight hours so there is time for getting ready for the evening event.

Which is where we will be – covering the parliament in the daylight hours and anything else that might happen. There is still the ongoing fallout from the decision to expel the Iranian ambassador (and shuttering our own embassy in Iran) after ASIO reported what it said was a direct link between Iran and anti-Semitic attacks in Australia. Plus the US continues to be unhinged, with most of the world’s major postal services shutting down deliveries (of parcels) to the States, because the US is trying to force senders to pay the tariff on goods they are sending to customers/family in the states and then apply to the US to have those tariffs reimbursed. The US decision was meant to target all those Shien and Temu hauls social media is full off (it’s aimed at China e-commerce) but it has captured everyone and means that any small business selling their product is caught up in it. (As well as loved ones sending gifts). Rather than deal with the mess, Australia Post and others have just suspended sending packages. The Liberal MP Tim Wilson thinks this is because Anthony Albanese hasn’t had a meeting with Donald Trump for…reasons. Mostly stupid ones.

Oh and Trump tried and failed to sack the deputy governor of the US Fed (the American version of the RBA) so that is bound to have very minimal impacts on world markets (sarcasm).

So if you are feeling up to it, join along as we cover the parliamentary day, along with the fact checks and explainers where necessary. You have Amy Remeikis with you (and it is at least a four coffee morning) so I hope you will stick around.

Ready? Let’s get into it.

In more news that everything it totally fine and he isn’t worried about anything at all, David Littleproud has spoken to Sky News to say the Australian article where Barnaby Joyce endorses Michael McCormack for leader (Joyce toppled McCormack) and the pair pose like they are at a CWA fundraiser (minus scones) ain’t no thang.

Littleproud has long had to battle allegations of arrogance (from within his own party and also anyone who has had to speak to him) and in a totally normal response says:

I’m not arrogant because I respect the position I’ve got.

He’s still D-Little from the block.

For those looking for a bit of good news this morning, here is what Angus Taylor looked like at the Coalition’s joint party room meeting, as seen through Mike Bowers’ lens:

Meanwhile, leader Sussan Ley wants the party room to know that everything is just fine actually:

AB asks I have a vague recollection of reading somewhere that if their numbers fell below a certain threshold in the Senate (which would happen with Perin Davey losing her spot), the Nationals would lose out on some staffing or similar there as well – could have been party status, if I remember rightly?

Well, they are going to lose out on staffing now anyway as they are no longer the opposition. So if the Liberals are the opposition and the Nats are not part of that, they lose staff (they’ll only have electoral staff like every other backbencher) and the Nats who were in the shadow ministry lose the 25% base top up.

And the Nats state parties aren’t known for paying their affiliation fees, so unlike the Greens, the party doesn’t have a lot of money to dip into for extra staff etc.

Which means National ‘spokespeople’ will be going it largely alone with no extra resources.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG?

Andrew Bolt is now having a coronary over the Greens, so I hope Adam Bandt and co are having a drink in celebration.

He is OUTRAGED that Labor won’t put them last, but demanded the Liberals put One Nation last.

I don’t know…racism and xenophobia and whatever else it is PHON is offering up these days is probably worse than saying everyone deserves an affordable home and landlords shouldn’t be able to ruin tenants lives and also wouldn’t dental in Medicare be great, and also genocide is bad – but what would we know. We don’t live in a multi-million dollar property complete with a built in studio so we never have to worry ourselves with commuting to work.

But like a true diva, Bolt did announce his change in circumstances in very dramatic fashion – he said he was quitting Melbourne and moving to the ‘bush’ in 2020 – until it was revealed the bush was the Mornington Pennisula.

Hello and welcome to US servitude day, where everyone becomes convinced that Donald Trump applying tariffs to goods his nation imports to prove a non-existence points somehow means we all just have to kowtow to him a little harder.

Trump is calling it ‘liberation’ day. The announcements will start coming in around 7am Australian time and there are some feverish fingers on keyboards and very agitated voices already.

So first, let’s take a look at what Australia exports to the United States, and what could therefore have tariffs applied to it under whatever Trump’s administration announces.

Here are the top 12 exports to the US, according to Trading Economics

It is pharmaceutical products which have most people worried, given the issues American drug giants have had with Australia’s PBS (which subsidises the cost of certain medicines in Australia) over the years.

But the Trump administration have also had issues with Australia’s biosecurity conditions for meat and poultry imports, as well as the News Media Bargaining Code (which has the tech bro oligarchs all up in arms). There is sort of a unity ticket between Albanese and Dutton on not compromising on those three areas, given the importance of the PBS and Australia’s own agricultural industry. The News Media Bargaining Code is probably one of the only areas where Murdoch diverges from Trump on policies, mostly because News Corp is a beneficiary. So there is some united rah-rah, although that hasn’t stopped Dutton from attacking Albanese over Australia being included in the global tariff assault Trump is inflicting on friend and foe alike – even though there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to what he is doing.

Australia imports much more from the US than it exports. We are, as they say in the global economic game, in a trade deficit with the United States and have been since Harry S Truman was president.

How much is this going to matter? Well it matters that Australia’s “exceptional friend” the United States is applying trade tariffs to allies, which has all the hallmarks of starting a global trade war, because of ideological issues he has with free trade and the belief that no one can move without America.

But as has been pointed out time and time again, nations have begun looking elsewhere for their trade arrangements pretty much since the first Trump presidency, when he first went on a tariff bender, and that has seen China (the original target of Trump’s tariffs) benefit. In fact, trade started to deviate away from the US during the global financial crisis, when American markets weren’t looking too crash hot and many nations have found other homes for their products (Mexico being an exception).

So again, it is more about the wider issues of what does this mean for Australia’s relationship with the US, given the strategic ties governments from both the Coalition and Labor have made with the US and how our leaders now handle that (and everything else that is coming) given the Trump take over of American institutions and increasing authoritarian crack downs on the US population?

We probably won’t get the answers we should today, but we should hope that we at least start getting the questions.

You’ve got the entire Australia Institute brains trust with you to help guide you through the day – and me, Amy Remeikis at the helm. It is going to be at least a six coffee day. And it’s Thursday. The worst day of the week even without all of this.

May Dolly help us all.

Ready? Let’s get into it.

Ed Husic is asked this question at the press club and responds with”

Just asking the question itself and with the possible consequence shows how challenging the environment is before us, I appreciate that is a massive understatement.

If we start down this path, it takes years, if not decades to unpick. We have an opportunity to sidestep all that work that will be required. The reason I say that is because you have witnessed, as we all have in the last 24 hours, the dialogue between our Prime Minister and the US President on this issue with respect to steel and aluminium.

There has been an agreement to consider what, if at all, should be effecting our country. We have been a steadfast ally of the US for generations, our people have fought side-by-side. We forge very close relationships. We do important strategic work together and investments in defence come with the closeness of those relationships. That is really important. The trade surplus we have with the US is factually, in a concrete way very important. These are the things we will work through with the US. It is way too early for us to be engaged in speculation, though I appreciate what drives your question. We will work through these issues.

The reality is, there are only a couple of places in the world that make aluminium. Australia is one, Canada is the other. The others are Russia, China and the Middle East. I reckon a country that is a strong ally, that has a strong relationship with the US and that is across from the Pacific and that has been providing product that has been in high demand on the west coast, there is a lot of compelling reasons why we can work together without the imposition of tariffs.

Election speculation is going to dominate the parliamentary sitting and will until a date is set. The date isn’t that important – we know we are in a faux election campaign, and we know that the election has to be held by mid-May. The most likely dates are May 3 or May 10, but truly – it doesn’t matter. The election campaign began almost as soon as the year ticked over to 2025 and it won’t slow down just because a date is called.

But before we get there, there is a couple of parliament sittings (and a budget!) to get through.

This sitting will deal with the stronger hate crime laws the government previewed last week, in response to anti-Semitic attacks. Labor will also move to replace the child care activity test with guaranteed access to childcare at least three days a week as part of its wider plan to make childcare universal (they will need to win a couple more elections for that to happen). That’s been fast tracked – Labor wants to make childcare one of its points of difference at the next election.

And there are still the nature positive laws to get through. Even though Labor doesn’t want to negotiate with the Greens to change what they have put forward (at this stage).

Here is a quick overview of what the Institute sees as some of the issues with the bill: