Australia Institute Live: Election 2025 results. As it happened.

And in that final moment, that is where the win was boiled down – it was a repudiation against the Trump style of politics the Coalition boiled its campaign down to. And we were right to call that out and also point to people not wanting it. We didn’t flinch when it came to the late claims of poll surges on that, and for that, I am proud.

We said that the question would be majority or minority Labor and we were right. But we underestimated the swing. It will come down as more of the postal/pre poll votes come in, but it is absolutely clear that people did not want what the Coalition was offering.

The teals all look like being re-elected with at least one more in their number and Dai Le and it looks like Andrew Gee will also be returned.

The Greens are having a bad night – attacked by both major parties, it appears to have played a role. And it seems, maybe some of the parliamentary negotiating tactics haven’t played off.

We will see more in the senate as that count starts in the coming days.

But at this point, it appears a Labor majority.

Will they do something with that power? Finally?

A very big thank you to the team at the Australia Institute with not only trusting me with this little project, but backing it in and being so generous with their expertise. They absolutely knocked it out of the park and made this blog stand out among the noise.

To all the people in the back who you don’t hear from that often, but without whom the blog would not function. Thank you. You’re amazing.

And of course, to you – the thousands and thousands and thousands of you who came along to see what this experiment would be like. I am completely blown away by how many of you joined – and stuck around and watching the numbers jump up has just humbled me completely. We will keep making little changes and improving things like comments, but we will keep going. Because you help us to.

The fight for a better Australia isn’t over. It has only just begun. So for now, take a break. Regroup. Onwards.

And as always – take care of you. Ax

My fellow Australians, Australians have chosen the Australian Labor Party as their government. Our government will choose the Australian way, because we are proud of who we are and all that we have built together in this country. We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else. We do not seek our inspiration from overseas.

We find it right here in our values and in our people.

Tomorrow, we dedicate ourselves to your service. We renew the great responsibility and the opportunity of government and with pride and purpose, optimism and determination, with faith in the fair go and faith in each other, we return to the work of building Australia’s future.

Thank you all.

Ali France gets a massive, massive cheer when Albanese singles her out.

His family gets a thank you and so does Jodie:

I am so grateful for your support, your friendship and your love. You make me so happy. Which matters. You have my heard, I love you and I look forward to living our lives together.

Albanese pulls out his Medicare card:

Because, this card… this card is not Labor Reid or Liberal blue, it is green and gold. It is a declaration of our national values in our national colours. Medicare belongs to all Australians and together, will make it stronger for all Australians.

He thanks Richard Marles and there is muted applause.

He thanks Penny Wong and there is cheers of PENNY PENNY PENNY

Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher also get a massive cheer, as does Jason Clare. Tony Burke gets one too

Albanese:

We must value every Australian and Labor will govern for every Australian. Every Australian who wants a fair go at work, fair wages, fair wages for their work and the right to disconnect when they are done with work.

Every Australian who deserves the security of a roof over their head or dreams of owning their own home, every woman who wants her contribution to our economy and society to be valued equally, every parent who wants their child to get the best start in life with cheaper childcare and with fair funding for every student in every school.

Everyone who counts on the National Disability Insurance Scheme. We will be a government for every Australian who wants to train or retrain for new skills and a good job, at public TAFE. Every Australian who works hard for the life changing opportunity of higher education, and wants 20% cut for their student debt.

Every Australian who knows … that climate change is a challenge, we must act together to meet for the future of our environment. And the fact that renewable energy is an opportunity that we must work together to seize for the future of our economy.

We will be a government that supports reconciliation with First Nations people. Because, we will be a stronger nation when we Close the Gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. And, friends, we will be a government that relies and helps every Australian who relies on Medicare

Albanese:

I make this solemn pledge. We will not forget that we will never take it for granted, repaying your trust will drive a government each and every day of the next three years — our government. The promise we took to the election was shaped by the Australian peoples parities and our government will dedicate the next three years to making a positive difference to your lives.

And, to your future.

…Together we are turning a corner and together we will make our way forward, with no-one held back and no-one left behind.

Albanese:

At election time candidates and parties are asked to make a choice. The nature of our democracy and the role of the media who serve it, it is based on differences. But the people of Australia have made the clear choice, let us reflect on what we have in common because no matter who you voted for, no matter where you live, no matter how you worship or who you love, whether you belong to a culture that has known and cared for this great continent for 65,000 years or you have chosen our nation as your home and enriched our society with your contribution, we are all Australians.

So let all of us work together to build our national unity on the enduring foundations of fairness, equality and respect for one another. My fellow Australians, I know the world has thrown a lot in our country over the past three years. I know so many of you have worked hard in the face of significant challenges, and I know there is still much more to do to help people under pressure. That is why it means so much that in these uncertain times, the people of Australia have placed their trust in Labor once again.

Including so many Australians who had voted Labor for the first time.

Anthony Albanese says he spoke to Peter Dutton. There are boos and Albanese stops them:

I thank him, no. No. What we do in Australia is we treat people with respect.

I thank Peter for his generous words at the end of what has been a very hard fought campaign, and I want to take this opportunity to wish Peter and Kiriilly and their family all the best for their future.

Anthony Albanese:

And I acknowledge the traditional owners of the land on which we meet…

And I pay my respects to elders past, present and emerging today and every day.

Today, the Australian people have voted for Australian values. For fairness, aspiration and opportunity for all.

For the strength to show courage in adversity and kindness to those in need.

And Australians have voted for a future that holds true to these values, a future built on everything that brings us together as Australians and everything that sets our nation apart from the world. (APPLAUSE) in this time of global uncertainty, Australians have chosen optimism and determination.

Australians have chosen to face global challenges the Australian way, looking after each other while building for the future.

And to serve these values, meet these challenges, these these opportunities, and build that better and stronger future, Australians have chosen a majority Labor government.

There are chants of ALBO ALBO ALBO as he takes another drink of water.

“I think the Australian people have got the name,” he says.

Anthony Albanese is taking to the stage with his partner Jodie Haydon and son Nathan.

There are cheers of ALBO ALBO ALBO and he doesn’t shush them like he did in 2022. He takes a drink of water and says:

My fellow Australians… (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) Serving as your Prime Minister is the greatest honour of my life. And it is with a deep sense of humility and a profound sense of responsibility that the first thing that I do tonight is to say thank you to the people of Australia for the chance to continue to serve the best nation on earth.

Penny Wong is introducing Albanese:

We love this country and representing it to the world is the honour of my life. Because of who we are and what we strive to be, a nation that stands on its own two feet, that invests in the aspirations of all of its people, a nation of courage and of kindness.

I saw this purpose and these principles in our campaign across the country. Our hard working candidates, the thousands of Labor volunteers in every state and territory, in every community, working for a better future.

Friends, three years ago, the Australian people made a collective decision, to turn the page and ride a new future for ourselves. Tonight together we start the new chapter.

We will write this next chapter so all Australians are part of our nation’s story.

LNP senator James McGrath says it would be “very dangerous” for the LNP to swing towards being more Trumpian in the wake of this:

It would be dangerous for my party, and I speak as Ronald Reagan Republican and a George Bush Republican, speaking to Donald Trump’s positions, we are a free-trade party and pro- Ukraine and we should continue to be centre-right.

We must resist that path and focus on where middle Australia is. If Luke Howarth is in trouble and Petrie, and I don’t want to mention prepoll because people are now drinking every time I say prepoll, when the suburbs and Petrie have swung against us that we have not got back the suburbs in Ryan and Brisbane.

What are we doing to make sure that we get back at centre-right vote, the middle Australia vote?

Peter Dutton runs through his thank yous and then gets to the end of his speech after saying that the highlight of his career was being defence minister.

Ultimately we live in the best country in the world and I have always believed that and I always will. I love this country and have fought hard for it, we have been defined by our opponents in this election which is not a true story of who we are but we will rebuild from here and we will do that because we know our values, we know our beliefs, and we will always stick to them. I want to say thank you to the Australian people for the faith that they have placed in me, and thank them for the great honour of having been the member for Dickson, and the Leader of the Opposition.

Peter Dutton says he has conceded to both Anthony Albanese and Ali France.

It is still unclear if James McGrath has conceded that Dutton has lost.

It is an historic occasion for the Labor Party and we recognise that. I congratulated the Prime Minister and wished he Jodie and Nathan all the very best and I said to the Prime Minister that his mother would be incredibly proud of his achievement tonight and he should be proud of what he has achieved.

I also had the pleasure of speaking with Ali France, Ali and I have been combatants for a number of elections but she was successful in Dickson tonight, and she will do a good job as a local member. She lost her son Henry which is a tragic circumstances and no parent should ever go through that, equally I said to Ali that her son Henry would be incredibly proud of her tonight and she will do a good job as a local member for Dickson and I wish her all the very best.

And it sounds like there are some boos?

They are very quickly drowned out by people screaming ‘we love you Peter’.

Dutton:

Well, tonight is not the night we wanted for he Liberal Party and for the Coalition and what we need for our country, we work hard every day over the course of the last three years to do our best for our amazing country. One of the great honours of being the leader of this party is that we have met people from every side and every corner, the length and breadth of this country, and there are many amazing stories, people have sacrificed and the people who are doing it hard at the moment and I have always wanted, in public life, for our country and the best for every Australian.

This is the fight now – what will Labor do with power? Will it start doing something?

Over on Sky, the overwhelming view of the commentators is that there was not enough Jacinta Price in the campaign, and not enough of Peter Dutton being himself.

Not sure how many more seats they wanted the Coalition to lose, but there you have it.

Labor looks like winning:

Dickson

Brisbane

Griffith

Menzies

Sturt

Leichhardt

Bonner

Bass

In the Hunter, One Nation has a higher vote than the Nationals with almost 17% of the vote in the count so far.

That would put them in number two and potentially a threat to Labor if the preference flow starts going their way

Jim Chalmers calls a “win for the ages”

Anthony wears his heart on his sleeve, as we he know. That is one of the most endearing of his qualities. He’s an emotional fellow and he will know just how important this is to the country – not just to Labor people but the whole place. Privately and publicly, he cares deeply about governing for the whole show. He goes to places that haven’t voted Labor forever and he does that deliberately and so he will feel the weight of responsibility, he will be emotional about it. We can expect that, but he should be very, very proud of what has happened here.

This is a win for the ages, if it happens as we’re expecting, given where Labor was six months ago, given what the expectations were for tonight, given what the expectations were before the Budget and so he has every right to feel proud. He has every right to feel emotional about it. He has pulled off one of the great political victories since federation. That is what we are seeing tonight.

The Nationals have not taken Calare – which is one of the seats they basically claimed they had won before the election.

Andrew Gee is coming back as an independent.

Cowper is lineball.

Dan Tehan, who is now one of the leadership contenders as a last person standing says:

Look, I’m going to be thinking about what has happened here. I’m going to be thinking about what has happened right across the country. But at the moment, I have to say, my thoughts are with my colleagues who have lost their seat. If it is confirmed that Peter Dutton has lost his seat, that means it’s an extremely difficult night for us tonight.

…We have got to consider everything that has happened. What we need is a proper review. A proper review of all the policies, a proper review of how we campaigned. And we have to do that, over a period of time. You can’t come out on the night of an election and say: This is what you should have done, this is what you shouldn’t have done. That is a for the cold, hard light of day then you have to analyse things and do it properly.

Adam Bandt is walking into the Greens party:

Jacinta Price:

There is a whole lot of mud you just slung right there, can I just say, in terms of wanting this country to be great. Donald Trump doesn’t own those four words. Right. Because the media can go through your personal Facebook photos, and find a picture that was taken, in jest, at Christmas time, and then smear you with it, that is the problem. That is the issue. It’s the smearing that goes on, certainly within the media, just as you are trying to talk about this seriously. I’m deadly serious about this issue.

Jacinta Price is being asked if she is to blame for Peter Dutton’s loss, given that she embraced Donald Trump – including that she said ‘Make Australia Great Again” at a time when the Coalition was trying to distance itself from Trump.

Price is NOT happy:

If you don’t think I’m addressing this seriously, I am addressing this deadly seriously, in that if you sling enough mud, it will stick. And absolutely, Labor, certainly the media, have slung enough mud, in terms of this particular issue.

You made it all about Donald Trump. We really couldn’t care less about the way Donald Trump is governing for America. We were concerned with the way Australia is being governed under an Albanese government. And the situation is not going to get any better going forward. It is not going to get any better.

The Coalition is not coping.

Jane Hume said on Friday that you don’t read the entrails until you gut the chicken, in response to a leadership question and well, if the chicken is Peter Dutton, then the chicken is done.

The list of who is left is Angus Taylor, Andrew Hastie and it seems Dan Tehan.

Labor staffers are crying (with relief) – there was a lot of people worried within the campaign even as late as today.

But there is also a hell of a lot of jubilation.

They also decided they didn’t need to win the teal seats – and it cost Peter Dutton his seat.

With half of polling booths returned, Zoe Daniel is ahead of Tim Wilson with a comfortable margin/

Monique Ryan has seen a 3% swing to her so far.

It seems like the Coalition vote will end up in with a two in front of it the way things are going

All the news channels have now called it – The ALP will be returned and now it just about the final numbers. Every Lib on TV is saying “pre-polls!!!!!” And sure they might swing a bit to the LNP, but nowhere near enough, and probably not enough in many seats to make a difference

The AEC website tells it thus:

With 22% of the vote counted, the ALP has a swing of 2.7%

The Liberal Party has a negative swing of 3.27%

LNG in Qld is down 1.51%

Greens is up .59%

But seats wise things are less rosy for the Greens – they are a chance to lose all the seats in Qld

Let’s look at the states:

NSW:

ALP: +2.22%

LNP: -4.97%

Nats: -0.82%

Greens: +1.76%

Vic: (which was meant to be a slaughter for the ALP)

ALP: +1.38%

Libs: -2.86%

Nats: +1.19%

Greens: +.49%

QLD – LNP homeland

ALP: +3.72%

LNP: -5.05

Greens: -.48%

SA:

ALP: +4.03%

Libs: -7.25%

Nats: +0.28%

Greens: 1.21%

Tas

ALP: +8.38%

Libs: -8.47%

Greens: -0.81%

There’s of course some independents swings and One Nation and individual swings, but wow. That is a smashing.

A total rejection of Peter Dutton’s leadership.

Now we start the narrative of what went wrong/right.

It is clear Nuclear was a dud, work from home a big dud and the total flip flopping and lack of policy nous was a huge dud.

Did Albanese win or Dutton lose? Clearly the ALP’s lift in primary votes suggests voters were happy to go from the Libs to the ALP (especially in Qld and Tasmania). So this pretty much puts any suggestion of his leadership being in any danger well on the back-burner.

Dutton looks a big chance to lose his seat. Not that it would matter – his career is over either way. And now the decision of the Liberal Party is whether they think the problem is they were too woke (yes many think that) or is there anyone left in the party who can appeal to the centre.

Jim Chalmers on Ali France

There is a bunch of things playing out there. The nuclear stuff was bad for Peter Dutton. He made an egregious error on the Sunday night of the final week, saying he would be comfortable having a nuclear reactor in his suburb when Mark Riley asked him. It was a big mistake. That is not the only thing. There are foundational issues here, I think, they lost the argument on Medicare, they lost the argument on the cost of living and Peter Dutton trailed away as the campaign wore on and we shouldn’t expect that that will be somehow different in his own community, despite the fact that as James rightly points out, he has clung on when we have been confident before.

Ali France has had three cracks at this now. There is a special place in the Labor pantheon for people who keep going again and again and again with persistence and perseverance and Ali France, if she has won Dickson, is genuinely a Labor hero

I can not see how he comes back from here.

Ali France will take Dickson.

Matt Grudnoff says it is looking like the first time since World War 2 that a second term government has seen a swing towards the government.

And so far, it is looking like a swing against the Coalition in every seat.

Chalmers is having the time of his life and is trying very hard not to show it. He does not want to be seen to be gleeful, but he thinks that Dutton is done.

Bit of post-Dutts clarity all round it seems.

He is therefore doing a bit of early defence against Angus Taylor:

I think the missing part of the story we are missing talking about is Angus Taylor. So many of the issues the party have, can be traced back to Angus. I think we need to be careful as we go through this result cautiously and conservatively, as we continue to do, obviously Peter Dutton did not have a good campaign but the main alternative, Angus Taylor, arguely had a worse campaign which was at least as good, if not worse than Peter Dutton.

There is a bit of this going on

There are absolute cheers at the Labor HQ.

Seven and Nine called the election result ahead of Antony Green, but he calls it for the culture.

So it is done.

Minority or majority. And will Dutton lose his seat?

The Greens absolutely have not been too extreme, Osman is right on that

He just doesn’t know if it is minority or majority. But he is calling it.

Over on the ABC and James McGrath is talking about how the “party room supports Peter Dutton” repeatedly and how “Peter Dutton will stay leader for as long as he wants to”

Which might not be long, if he doesn’t have a seat.

For Mark Bailey, this is personal

Jim Chalmers is saying on Dickson that Ali France would be “feeling courage” given the results.

Bonner is looking good for Labor, as is Leichardt.

A chat to Mike Bowers at the Labor HQ and he says there is a cheer every time the numbers come up for Peter Dutton’s seat.

He is not doing well. In fact Labor sources are pretty sure they “have it”

Friends of the Blog in the Coalition side say that things are “not good” and Peter Dutton isn’t really talking to anyone (he is at a hotel with his family)

Sally McManus is having a good night

The question now is only major or minority for Labor. That’s it. There is no way the Coalition forms government here.

The New Daily Photogapher-At-Large Mike Bowers is stationed at Labor HQ.

It seems the mood is quite buoyant.

James McGrath and James Paterson, two Liberal senators are both struggling on their respective panels.

McGrath has run many a campaign – and you can tell by how defensive he is getting that things are not going well for the Liberals behind the scenes either.

With 23 of the 40 booths returning, Ali France is STILL ahead in Dickson.

Her margin is falling back, but she is still managing to hold her lead

Jacqui Lambie is doing very, very well. She is asked her view of the campaign and says:

I think Labor has been the bigger and smarter outfit and have done a lot better. They look like they want to run. Liberals do not. They have been slipping over the last few weeks and they are not coming out with your policy and your costings still towards the end, that is just ridiculous. What were they expecting?

If you want to govern but you do not want to tell is how you would do that. That is ridiculous. I think they have lost, people who thought they may have voted for them, I think the last week they lost quite a lot.

It is so early in the vote it is a bit too early to be getting very excited. Get a bit excited, but don’t think this done done yet.

Jim Chalmers is saying that he thinks that early voting will be STRONGER for the Coalition

We think early voting will be stronger for the Coalition than on the day voting is that we think are over represented in that group are older people, people who already own their own home and people who have had a history of voting for the LNP. I agree with what James is saying. We are encouraged, obviously, by these numbers coming in but we have the same caution we had at 6pm and whatever time it is now, we have the same caution and we expect that these good numbers that we have been getting so far will moderate.

So far the Liberals are seeing their best results in Victoria, where there is only a 0.6% swing against them.

So…that is less than ideal if you are the Coalition you would think

The former state leader of the Labor Party, Rebecca White, is well ahead in Lyons. She is seeking to hold this tight seat for the ALP following the retirement of Brian Mitchell. She’s leading 62-38 2PP.

Julie Collins has overtaken independent Peter George in Franklin 4010 to 2741 on primary votes.

Jess Teesdale is well ahead of sitting Liberal Bridget Archer in Bass, 60-40 2PP.

Anne Urquhart and Mal Hingston are neck and neck in Braddon.

And independent Andrew Wilkie is home and hosed in Clark. What a shock. Not!

We are seeing a swing towards Labor in Queensland – watch that state, there is more coming!

If the swing holds…well Dickson and Petrie COULD be interesting

This happened about the same time at the last election as well. I remember looking at the results and thinking – ahhhhhh, but Dutton held.

Labor peeps are saying there are not the swings they expected to see against Fiona Phillips in Gilmore and “things aren’t looking great for Andrew Constance”.

That shouldn’t be a surprise to people who have been following this blog – Constance hasn’t been winning hearts and minds like they thought he would – there was the whole time he tried to come to senate, then his multiple attempts to enter federal politics, including moving seats, so there isn’t a lot of love for him when it comes to the vibe.

So don’t be surprised if Gilmore stays with Labor.

Monique Ryan has an early lead over Amelia Hamer in Kooyong 42% of the primary (328 votes!) to 34%

With some conservative rural seats counted in Wannon, Dan Tehan is polling 48% of the primary vote (2983 votes) is comfortably ahead of Alex Dyson.

Zoe Daniel and Tim Wilson are neck and neck in Goldstein. Same with Ro Knox and Allegra Spender in Wentworth.

Zali Steggall is pulling more than 40% of the primary vote in Warringah. About 10% ahead.

Liberal Gisele Kapterian is about 11% ahead of Nicolette Boele in Bradfield.

Liberal senator James McGrath is taking some cope-ium on the ABC coverage as early numbers come in:

No, there are some local circumstances there and I agree with Jim about Bass and Bridget is a maverick but she is a popular maverick. She held the seat of the last election for the first time ever for a long time that either Labor or Liberal held the seat for two elections.

In Braddon, Gavin Pearce retiring, we have a very popular local member retiring and there are additional candidates at the last election. The issue there is with salmon and this is one of the seats I suspect we will not know the result tonight, we may not know it until the week after next. It will be a close seat. And the seat in Lyons shows the brutality of the Labor Party which we can never get away within the Liberal Party is that the sitting member there was tapped on the shoulder and said out of the way because we have a really good candidate in Susie Bauer and Rebecca White, who I agree is a popular member, was installed as the candidate.

David Littleproud has just done a live cross which has turned into a slanging match with Murray Watt.

By the end of it his face was redder than the man he replaced, Barnaby Joyce, who – as coincidence would have it – is on the panel. To be fair, Barnaby has a face full of tv makeup.

If the Nationals do as poorly as some are predicting, the Nats’ knives could be out for the leader. Again.

Which may explain why Barnaby just sat back and let Littleproud and Watt go at it.

In fact, Barnaby has “sat back” for much of the campaign. Funny that.

Surely, the Barnabus could be jump-started for a third time?

Bridget McKenzie and Kevin Hogan have both commenced discreet inquiries.

Liberal senator James Paterson isn’t feeling so confident it seems. His vibe is ready to concede.

What I can see is think Victoria will be very significant, obviously the Labor Brand is damaged in Victoria, Victorians feel very financially stressed in many seats, particular in the north-west of Melbourne in the south-east of Melbourne, they feel there is a severe infrastructure deficit and they have missed out on investment and there is the Crime hot spots all around Melbourne. That will be significant.

Equally significant will be regional New South Wales where we have some very good candidates running and I think some good contest.

And I Labor’s but a lot of focus in Queensland, noted that the Prime Minister had his most aggressive offensive visit program in Queensland, in those seats he was targeting and the campaigning in the rest of the country was more defensive.

… We will have a proper post-election review process we will very carefully consider the data and dispassionately analyse that, don’t want to get ahead of that process tonight before even Western strands are still voting, let alone meaningful votes are counted, one fact I think we can all acknowledge and recognise is the Donald Trump factor.

It was devastating in Canada for the Conservatives where the Canadian Conservative leader lost 20 points over the course of a few months. I think has been a factor here, just how big a factor it will determine in a few hours’ time but I think it has been significant.

Liberal campaign spokesman James Paterson is already sounding a bit glum.

He says there’ll be a “proper post election review process” when asked about the campaign.

“There is no perfect campaign”.

He says he doesn’t want to dive into that too deeply as Western Australians are still voting.

He does say there was a “Trump factor” and points to Canada.

Leichhardt (to Labor)

Andrew Gee in Calare

Lindsay (to Labor)

Richard Marles is getting his live crosses out of the way early.

I suspect he’ll have his first Pinot before me.

He’s done the ABC, now on Sky.

Taking questions from Murray Watt!!!

He says the longer the campaign went on, the better he felt about holding seats in Victoria.

That follows Jim Chalmers saying earlier that Labor started the campaign seeking to offset any losses in Victoria.

Very early count in the ACT seat of Bean, but independent candidate Jesse Price has come out of the blocks and is ahead in the booths which have been counted so far.

It’s early, but that is unusual for the ACT.

James McGrath is still defending the campaign:

Of course I’m going to defend it. As James Paterson set on 730 last night, prickly in relation to the work from home policy, that when a mistake is made and that policy was a mistake and we admitted it as such and it was dumped.

And I think we should be praising politicians to admit when they make mistake rather than those politicians likely prime who keep going on and telling lies, which is what the Prime Minister has done throughout this campaign, so I think it’s a good thing that politicians admit when they make mistakes…

We have already had Antony Green’s computer not work, which is one of your bingo squares!

Some of the first results we have coming in is a small early swing to Labor in Fowler.
Dai Le was speaking on Friday about the “Labor lies” she says has been deployed in her electorate, so keep an eye on that.

Coalition senator James McGrath is also on the ABC, and he is defending the Coalition’s campaign, which let’s be clear, no matter where the votes land tonight, was an absolute shit show.

When people and focus groups were given an example of this is plan A and Plan B, people clearly preferred our plan.

The challenge for us is that my view has always been at the Prime Minister was going to call an election in May and I was on the record for that because the Labor Party needed to do two things. They needed to rebuild their economic narrative and they needed another budget to do that.

Because the cost of living has been the number one issue in Australia.

…In terms of what did Labor need to do, they needed a later election because they needed to try to do something about cost-of-living because they were behind in relation to that but they also needed to run a God Almighty scare campaign against Peter Dutton and that is what we have seen.

Does Jim Chalmers think that Anthony Albanese is a ‘confidence player?’ He tells the ABC:

That was a mistake to underestimate him so I think first and foremost the prime ministers performance [is to thank for the campaign]

Secondly I think the way that we got back in the game on the cost of living. I think by most measures, public and private polling, we were at parity on the cost of living or better in some polls. In some of the research that I have seen, the question of under which side of politics would you be better off in three years, we ended up ahead on that measure in research that I have seen so the economy became a positive rather than a negative.

I think the interest rate cut was part of the story.

Does Jim Chalmers think Labor have done enough to win voters?

I would say we take no outcome for granted tonight, obviously, we have taken No vote for granted in this campaign.

But I think to be frank with all of the viewers we were in all sorts of the end of last year, we were in all sorts of trouble. And I think the way that we got back into the contest, such that there are a range of possibilities tonight as the count evolves, is really about three things, first of all, and probably most importantly, I don’t think I’ve seen a prime minister campaign as well as Prime Minister Albanese has, not just the last five weeks, but really since we rolled into Gympie at the beginning of January.

So what do we know?

Victoria is hard for Labor. Very hard it seems. And as Jim Chalmers has said on the ABC, the campaign became about overcoming the losses in Victoria.

Chalmers:

There is nothing left to be done. You’re in the hands of the people, as it should be. For us I think the key will be, we’re playing defence in a lot of places, but we can limit our losses in Victoria, in particular, and if there are losses of seats whether we can make up for them, primarily in Queensland, where we are from, but instead, for example, in South Australia, maybe northern Tasmania.

So, think whether we can limit those losses I think there will be seats changing hands in both directions not come all directions tonight, details as well, whether we can limit our losses, in Victoria, and make up for them elsewhere, but again in Queensland.

That’s because in Queensland, Labor could win up to an additional five seats.

And we are off – the count is on!

Get your snacks and your drinks – we are ready to go!

(Unless you are in WA – see what you guys do soon!)

There is about 15 minutes of open polls left on this election day.

Remember everyone of your votes count and that your preferences matter. You can not waste your vote!

Feel free to use this to add to your fun tonight. You can either have a drink every time one of these is mentioned (drink responsibly) or cross them off for a BINGO!

Bonus round:

It’s too early for these booths to count

Don’t forget postal votes are still to come in

Candidate on panel loses seat

Candidate on panel asked about next leader

TV host responds to MP defending bad result “valiant effort”

Tough night for XX speech writer

Leadership audition

I’m hearing….

“Too early to concede that seat yet, historically they have done well on the postals”

It won’t be tonight but also keep an eye on the senate – the One Nation vote is very interesting – and the Coalition could see themselves losing influence to PHON

Wannon

Bradfield

Calare

Cowper

Monash

Brisbane

Ryan

Griffith

Leichardt

Bonner

Sturt

Gilmore

Paterson

Hunter

McEwen

Wills

Macnamara

All teal seats – especially Kooyong, Curtin and Goldstein

Braddon, Franklin, Bass and Lyons (all of Tasmania really)

Flinders

AAP wrote up some of the last minute shenanigans on the polls:

Labor sent out text messages to voters during polling day about the Greens’ decision to not preference Labor in the ultra-marginal Victorian seat of Deakin, held by the Liberals.

“Preferences are critical in keeping Dutton out and this decision by Adam Bandt will put in jeopardy Labor forming government,” the text message reads.

In the nation’s capital, Canberrans took advantage of the city’s democratic heritage by voting at Old Parliament House.

In Victoria, Kooyong MP Monique Ryan was being stopped by a journalist when a bird in a tree pooed on her.

The Liberals are desperate to wrest the seat back from the teal independent, which was previously held by former treasurer Josh Frydenberg

A reminder that preferences are decided by you, not the how to vote cards. That is just a guide

Hello and welcome to Australia Votes 2025!

We will cover all the vote as the night goes on – we have a live show on Youtube and Facebook which you can tune into ahead as you prepare for your election night party – and the live stream will be going until 7.30ish (when we all know you will be turning over to the ABC to see Antony’s swan song)

So you have me, Amy Remeikis and the Australia Institute team bringing you all the live coverage of the votes. We will have expert opinion, a bit of goss, a bit of snark and some insights from different seats, campaigns and what comes next.

Thanks so much for joining us – I will be having a drink as we make our way through this, so hope you will be having what brings you joy as well.

Ready?

Let’s get into it.

(Oh and THRILLED to be able to use some of the photojournalism from Photographer-at-Large at The New Daily, Mike Bowers. Hey Mikey! Here is some of his work from earlier in the day at Bondi)