Well the government really is feeling its oats because not only has it released the quarterly emissions figures, it has also released the annual greenhouse gas emissions projections.
These however are not so good.
The projections ae less optimistic than last year about the projection of emissions out to 2040. The biggest issue is electricity, which is now project to produce 996mt CO2 from now till the end of 2040 compared to the estimate last year of 929mt CO2
What this means ius that the government is set to miss its target for a 43% cut by 2030 and massively do so for its 2035 target range of 52%-70% cuts below 2005 levels:
The government is saying that it will only just miss out on the 43% cut target by 2030, but this is only the case if “by 2030” means “by the end of 2030”. In 2029 the govt estimates annual emissions will be 36% below 2005 levels. It does however project emissions in 2030 to be 42.2% below 2005 levels, so basically at the 43% target.
But no such semantics is of any use for the 2035 target. The government has a target of 62% to 70% cuts. At the moment they are on track to be just 47.5% below at the end of 2035.
Given that target remains far too weak it is pretty dire news, made worse so when you consider that the government set those targets by estimating the cumulative emissions that will be produced between now and 2035.
The government’s projections are such that we will blow through our carbon budget for a 70% cut in 20304.
In essence this means we are set to be 2 years worth of emissions more than is currently budgeted.
Not good, and just highlights how much faster the transition away from fossil fuels needs to happen.
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And this is assuming out LULUCF and Fugitive emissions accounts are tickety-boo, which is become more doubtful with every new study.