It's the first week of the new parliament. All the day's events, with fact checks, live.
And on that note, we are going to close the blog for the day – there is so much news all the time and we don’t want to overload you, and it is going to be a big week. So we will close off early ahead of the main show starting tomorrow.
We will be back bright and early tomorrow morning to start the new parliamentary year – until then, please take care of you . Ax
Anthony Albanese finishes with this:
This is our task. The short-term – making a positive difference to people’s lives. But always with our eye on the horizon.
Where are the big opportunities going forward?
Where are the rewards that come from gender equality, from the net zero transition, from making sure that we grow new industries and that we make things here in Australia, including the potential for green steel and other products together?
This is the task which we have. We should go about it with determination, with humility, making sure – if people have got a good idea – we’re up for engagement positively and constructively.
But I am absolutely committed to making sure that we seize the opportunity that we’ve been given to be able to create that fairer economy, that stronger economy – stronger because it is fairer, stronger because it is fairer is a core belief that we in this room have as Labor Party members.
And we must also – and I’ll conclude with this – we must also remember those people who won’t get to sit in this room, but who proud that we’re sitting in this room. The people who gave up their time, their commitment, their dollars, they sold the raffle tickets, who brought us here as well to a position which we should cherish and honour by delivering for them.
The new caucus is sitting – it’s the biggest caucus many of us will have ever seen.
Albanese says that Labor has spent more time in the opposition corridor historically, than the government side, but that if people focus on what is important, there is no reason why they can’t all be returned at the next election.
Albanese:
More often than not, Labor has been at the other end of the corridor. Which is why we should never, ever, ever take it for granted. The fact that not a single member of the Labor Caucus in the last parliament has not been returned here is due to the hard effort of you individually – the people who knocked on doors, made phone calls, made sacrifices. It also is a product of the collective will of this group.
The discipline.
The sense of purpose that was there in the government in our first term – one which we must maintain.
And if we maintain that sense of discipline, sense of purpose, clear idea about why we are here – to represent people in our electorate, but also represent the national interest in promoting the Labor values of fairness, of aspiration, and opportunity for all – there is no reason why every single one of you can’t just be returned to the next parliament but can’t be added to as well.
But we know that, each and every day, we must work hard to we repay the faith that has been shown in us. And I know from campaigning with every one of you that that is the determination which is there.
Anthony Albanese is about to address the Labor caucus.
It is not the first time since the election – there was a celebratory gathering shortly after – but it is the first one ahead of a parliament sitting.
Get your bingo card ready – mandate, humbleness, focus, no hubris
The run up to Jim Chalmers productivity roundtable has got all the vested interest groups scared, and today’s group is the housing industry.
The Housing Industry Association has just put out a release not just arguing against any changes to taxation on housing but arguing against even talking about changes to taxation.
Why? Well because they say “talk of more taxes” will “impair market confidence”.
Oh no, anything but that!! Yes, the market confidence fairy is so important for ensuring housing supply!
The HIA media release comes after a report put out today by the McKell Institute arguing for changes to how capital gains is taxed.
As you might know if you buy an investment property and then sell it more than 12 months later , you get a 50% tax discount. So if you made a $100,000 profit, you only pay tax on $50,000. This has distorted the hell out of the housing market and worked with negative gearing to turn the housing market into a casino where you almost can’t lose.
The McKell Institute has suggested changes which it says will be revenue neutral (ie won’t reduce or increase the amount of tax).
It argues three things:
OK this is fine. I would go to 25%, but sure. This means you could still buy an apartment and get a CGT discount, but just 35% not 50%. What they are doing is getting rid of the CGT discount for established houses – so you could not buy an old house and then sell it later and get any discount. Seems good.
OK, why keep the 50% distortion in place? A new detached house is one that is a stand alone. (ie a :”house”) and has been built but no one has lived in yet. Not sure how they can say this will improve supply given this discount is already in place – I suspect they are putting a lot of store in people shifting from buying established houses to new houses.
Wait, what??!! They want to increase the tax discount from 50% to 70%?!
Holy wow. This is essentially a big boon for property developers, because your “mum and dad” investors are sure as heck not building new apartment complexes.
Cripes.
Here’s a tip – how about stop distorting the housing market with massive discounts that will transfer wealth to those who can afford to invest in property and build apartments and instead have the government borrow and build the houses and apartments and rent/sell them to the public?
Anyway, it says something that even changes to the CGT discount which would see property developers get a 70% discount on building apartment get criticised by the housing industry.
The local bourse* has been unable to push further into record territory, with most sectors losing ground at the start of a busy week for markets.
Near noon on Monday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index had given up three-quarters of Friday’s gains, dropping 86.1 points, or 0.98 per cent, to 8,671.1, while the broader All Ordinaries was down 82.4 points, or 0.94 per cent, to 8,921.8.
Investors’ attention would be fully captured by stocks this week as US company reporting season hit full stride and a number of important Australian companies addressed shareholders, Moomoo market strategist Michael McCarthy said.
It might be a hectic week for markets, he added, with a number of US Federal Reserve board members speaking publicly, the release of New Zealand inflation data as well as a gauge of Australian and US business activity known as the purchasing manager index.
At midday, nine of the ASX’s 11 sectors were in the red, with energy and materials up marginally.
The financial sector was the biggest loser, dropping 1.8 per cent.
ANZ had fallen 2.3 per cent, Westpac was down 3.1 per cent, CBA had retreated 2.0 per cent and NAB had fallen 2.2 per cent.
But AMP was up 8.8 per cent to a five-month high of $1.67 after the financial services company said it had recorded its first quarter of positive cashflows into its superannuation business since the second quarter of 2017, when it was scrutinised by the financial services royal commission.
“This reflects our continued efforts to build a compelling member proposition which is delivering outstanding investment returns, service and education,” said CEO Alexis George.
In the heavyweight mining sector, Rio Tinto was up 1.5 per cent, Fortescue had added 1.2 per cent and BHP had edged 0.1 per cent higher.
South32 was up 3.6 per cent following its quarterly operating report.
The Australian dollar was buying 65.04 US cents, from 65.02 US cents at 5pm on Friday.
*Bourse is usually a term for a stock market in a non-English speaking country, and usually applies to the French stock market, but when used as ‘local bourse’ is used to describe the domestic stock market. People who write about the stock market like to mix up the terms.
A large number of starving people in the Gaza Strip have been killed by Israeli fire while waiting for UN aid trucks, the Rome-based World Food Programme says.
Shortly after crossing through the northern Zikim crossing into Gaza, a 25-truck convoy from the World Food Programme (WFP) encountered large crowds of civilians waiting to access food supplies, the UN agency said on social media platform X.
“As the convoy approached, the surrounding crowd came under fire from Israeli tanks, snipers and other gunfire.”
The incident, on Sunday morning local time, resulted in the loss of “countless lives” with many more suffering critical injuries, the WFP said.
“These people were simply trying to access food to feed themselves and their families on the brink of starvation. This terrible incident underscores the increasingly dangerous conditions under which humanitarian operations are forced to be conducted in Gaza.”
Local health authorities reported 67 Palestinians were killed, while Palestinian news agency WAFA reported 58 dead and at least 60 injured.
The Israeli military said warning shots had been fired amid “an imminent threat” and expressed doubts about the reported casualty figures.
The details of the incident are currently being investigated, the military said, but added an initial review indicated that the reported casualty figures do not match the information provided by the army. (Amy edit: The IOF often disputes information which is later independently verified to have been correct, or if anything, understated)
The information could not be independently verified at first. (Amy edit: there are multiple first person accounts, including footage on social media from Palestinian reporters)
WAFA, citing medical sources, reported that 132 people had been killed in the Gaza Strip on Sunday, including 94 aid seekers.
The UN and aid organisations report catastrophic conditions in the Gaza Strip, whose almost two million residents are almost entirely dependent on aid to survive. (Amy edit: Israel controls what goes into the strip and has banned food, medical supplies, fuel, power, baby formula, and other life essentials. This deliberate starvation has been compounded by the little Israel would allow into the strip even before the events of October 7.)
Gaza residents have been subjected to almost 22 months of fighting between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas.
According to UN figures, hundreds have died in the vicinity of aid distribution points and around aid convoys since the end of May.
WAFA put the death toll from Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip since October 2023 at at least 58,895, with more than 140,980 injured. The agency cites Palestinian medical sources for its figures.
The Israeli army is expanding its operations in the city of Deir al-Balah in the centre of the Gaza Strip, according to a statement from an army spokesman, who called on residents to leave the area in a post in Arabic on X.
The Israeli military continues “to operate with intensity to eliminate terrorists and to dismantle terrorist infrastructure in the area and is expanding its activities into new areas,” the army said in a statement.
“For your safety, immediately evacuate southward toward Al-Mawasi.”
Al-Mawasi in the south-west of the embattled area was designated by Israel as a “humanitarian zone” earlier in the war.
However, the Israeli military has since also attacked there multiple times. The army said targets included facilities of Hamas.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs warned the mass displacement order had dealt “yet another devastating blow” to the Gaza Strip.
Initial estimates indicated that between 50,000 and 80,000 people were in the area at the time the order was issued, including some 30,000 people sheltering in 57 displacement sites, the UN office said.
The newly designated area included several humanitarian warehouses, four primary health clinics, four medical points, and critical water infrastructure, it said.
“Any damage to this infrastructure will have life-threatening consequences.”
One of the biggest issues civil society has in fighting back against growing authoritarianism, centrism and corporate politics is that no one wants to be impolite.
Respectability politics has led us to a point where tone is more important than action. Ketan Joshi shows some of the problem here, in this post.
There are still a lot of groups and people in the civil society space who are warning that the Labor government can’t be pushed too hard, or the result will be a Coalition government. There is no evidence of that – in fact, history, evidence and the numbers tell us we actually have six years of Labor, with no guarantee the Liberal party will even survive. Centre-right politics will, of course, but not necessarily this incarnation of it.
So if Labor doesn’t actually do anything with its power now, then when will it is the question people should be asking themselves.
Glenn Connley
For those asking, this week is going to be mostly ceremony and welcomes.
Tomorrow is a bit of a write off – there is all the pomp that has to take place to open a new parliament, plus first speeches with Ali France (who toppled Peter Dutton) and Sarah Witty (who took Greens leader Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne) among those given the first slots.
Labor has already said it will put through its legislation to lower the HECS repayments for existing students – which is good for those with a HECS debt, but is also a bit of a distraction from Labor could be doing – which is lowering the cost of degrees, particularly Arts degrees, after the Coalition turbo charged the price.
Then it is penalty rates and the new childcare protection laws.
But don’t expect a lot of work to be done over the next couple of years. It’s all about how it looks.
Bill Browne
On Saturday, Tasmanians elected a new parliament – just 15 months on from the last election in the state. While the final results are yet to come in, what we know so far suggests the House of Assembly (the Tasmanian lower house) will be very similar in raw numbers to the previous House.
Tasmania went into the election with 14 Liberal MPs, 10 Labor MPs, 5 Greens MPs, 3 independent MPs and 3 MPs formerly of the Jacqui Lambie Network.
Election analyst Ben Raue predicts the result of the election will be 14 or 15 Liberal MPs, 10 Labor MPs, 5 Greens MPs, 4 independent MPs and either a Shooters MP or another Liberal MP.
Read his thorough blog post for more details on the election result.
In other words, Premier Jeremy Rockliff will face a parliament similar to the one that voted no confidence in his government just a couple of months ago.
The easiest way numerically for Labor to form government would be to negotiate with the Greens, something Opposition Leader Dean Winter reiterated on Sunday that he was unwilling to do. However, Australia Institute polling shows more than twice as many Labor voters support Labor forming government with Green and independent crossbenchers as oppose (61% agree vs 25% disagree).
This is the parliament Tasmanians have chosen – one very similar to the one they chose last year.
Fortunately for Tasmania, there are many ways of sharing power. This latest Tasmanian parliament is the 26th power-sharing parliament Australians have elected since 1989. Australia Institute research finds great variety in how power is shared, and what is negotiated in exchange for supporting the government:
Our research also shows that most power-sharing governments see out a full term (which is four years in the case of Tasmania) and are often re-elected. They can be very successful in implementing policy reform; indeed while Labor is reluctant to work with the Greens again in Tasmania, there has been a long-running and productive collaboration between Labor and the Greens in the ACT.
One possible way through for the Tasmanian parliament is what’s called a “grand coalition”. That’s where the two major parties form government together, in an alliance of the centre-left and centre-right. This would be unprecedented for Australia, but is common in some other Western democracies.
Earlier in the election campaign, former Greens leader Bob Brown suggested a grand coalition made sense given the major parties’ agreement on issues like the AFL stadium. Psephologist Malcolm Mackerras made a similar argument, suggesting the position of premier could rotate between Rockliff and Winter.
One thing the election should do is dispel the notion that power-sharing governments are punished by the Tasmanian electorate. The Rockliff Government has faced its second election as a minority government, and did about as well at this election as it did in the last (in fact, it looks to have done better in primary vote terms).
Matt Thistlethwaite was the chosen Labor sacrifice for a political Sky News panel this morning, where he was asked about the prime minister’s three priorities: passing the HECS legislation which will lower HECS debt for existing students (while doing nothing for students who are about to be slugged with the new fee structure set by the Coalition – which if you want to study arts, (I have a Bachelor of Journalism which is basically an arts degree) means you will be going deeply into debt just because the Coalition didn’t like Arts (who needs critical thinking and media literacy in this climate?!) and Labor have done nothing about it – as well as putting the new penalty rates into law, and child care safety laws.
Oh, and the Productivity round table.
Thistlethwaite said:
Well, we’ve got a clear agenda that we took to the last election, and the focus really is on cost of living support for Australians. So, on the 1st of July, a number of those measures began, like the energy rebates, PRAC payments, as you mentioned. Our first pieces of legislation will be reducing student debts and ensuring that we’re protecting penalty rates. So, we’re going to get on with delivering the mandate that we sought and had approved from the Australian people, and that’ll be our focus.
Obviously, with the Productivity Roundtable coming up, business and unions are going to have their ideas, and we welcome people putting their ideas. But we want to try and bring everyone together on a consensus basis to ensure that we’re putting in place policies for the future that we can grow our economy and improve living standards.
The Australia Group are meeting tomorrow.
What’s that?
It was established under the Hawke government in 1985 and is designed to promote the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. It was created in response to Iraq’s use of chemical weapons in the Iraq-Iran War. Australia is still a permanent chair and secretariat of the group, which has expanded from 15 countries originally to 42 countries and the EU.
Penny Wong says:
Through Australia’s leadership of the group, we have played a pivotal role in preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
At a time of rising global tensions and increasingly complex challenges, the Australia Group remains responsive to dynamic international events and technological developments to ensure it remains ahead of emerging proliferation threats.
But given Australia has not sanctioned Israel for its use of chemical weapons against civilian populations, or indeed sanctioned Israel for it’s slaughter of civilians in Gaza, and can’t even call out breaches of international law, it all seems a bit hollow, doesn’t it?
Looking at both Sussan Ley’s and David Littleproud’s comments there, you can’t help but notice the lack of cohesion.
Ley is pretending that the Coalition is going to be constructive. She also sayus that Australians want an opposition that will not just get out of the way:
Australians deserve the strongest possible Mr Albanese is giving interviews and suggesting we should just get out of the way – well, we will not. Our job is to represent the millions of Australians who voted for us and the millions who maybe did not but still expect us to be the strongest and best opposition that we can be and we will be.
But at the same time, claiming that Australians want a government that will get out of the way:
We are here for the values that we have always stood for as a Liberal Party. For hard work, reward for effort, a government that gets out of the way. That is what people expect. They want to Parliament that understands their lives and what their lives are like and a government that gets out the way.
So Ley says Australians, who just reduced the Liberal party to their lowest level of representation ever, a complete and utter repudiation of the party and what it stood for – which has been compounded in the time since the election, where the Coalition has gone BACKWARDS – actually want the Coalition to throw its (limited) weight around and want the government to get out of the way.
Kay.
Meanwhile, David Littleproud says the Coalition’s job is to FIGHT and actually NOT change. Because even though the Nationals are a fringe party now, and are threatening to blow up the bit of power they do have by splitting the Coalition, everything is fine and it is the voters who are wrong. Or something.
The fundamentals have not changed and we do not need to change but we need to prepare to have that fight. We will agree where we can but where we must we will hold true to our values and beliefs and have the courage to stand up. We will do what is right for this country and articulate a different vision, where we need to and be constructive where we can.
That is what the Australian people expect. That is what the Australian people expect of each and every one of us, to come to this place and make our country better. That is not rolling over on everything, it is about making sure that we stand up where we need to one values and principles that will change our country for the better.
Get your popcorn now fans.
David Littleproud is now pretending the Nationals are still relevant, while standing next to Ley, like he didn’t try to blow up the Coalition in the days after her mother died by announcing a ‘split’ which is now on hold, while a bunch of pointless reviews are underway within the party.
Littleproud:
The hard work starts today. The fundamentals in this country have not changed. Australians are still doing it tough and Anthony Albanese has been swanning around the international stage* and has forgotten that there are Australian struggling to put dinner on the table tonight, were struggling to pay energy bills, who are unable to insure their own homes** because he has let the fundamental slip away.
The fundamentals have not changed and we do not need to change but we need to prepare to have that fight. We will agree where we can but where we must we will hold true to our values and beliefs and have the courage to stand up. We will do what is right for this country and articulate a different vision, where we need to and be constructive where we can.
That is what the Australian people expect. That is what the Australian people expect of each and every one of us, to come to this place and make our country better. That is not rolling over on everything, it is about making sure that we stand up where we need to show our values and principles that will change our country for the better.
So, please, we have to be humble for what has happened to us but we can do one of two things. We can sit in the fetal position in the corner and give up or come out swinging.
And we will come out swinging. We rely on the collective wisdom of this room to be able to come forward and collectively put forward a cogent argument to the Australian people over the next 2.5 years. We have time, no matter what it looks like today, it will be a different landscaping 2.5 years time if we stay committed and focused and stay together.***
*Shoring up relationships with Australia’s largest trading partner – which the Nationals constituency relies on.
**That’s because of climate change, which the Nationals are actively trying to derail any action over.
***HAHAHAHAHAHAH
Here is part of Sussan Ley’s rah-rah to the Coalition party room. The room has the energy of the Gold Coast Titans in the final rounds before finals or my phone battery around midday (loooooooowwwwwww) if you’re not a NRL fan.
Less than half of this room support Ley as leader by the way.
Ley:
We also know that we are an incredibly strong and talented team and when I look around this room it brings a smile to my face to see what amazing quality we have with the colleagues in both Liberals and Nationals who are out there fighting the fight, prosecuting the case and taking it up to the government.
But the real work in the Parliament of Australia will start this week and I am up for the job, I am excited and I know all you are as well. We will not be judged by the headlines of the day, what we will be judged by is what we offer the Australian people at the next election*. And Australians deserve the strongest possible [offering].
Mr Albanese is giving interviews and suggesting we should just get out of the way were we will not. Our job is to represent the millions of Australians who voted for us and the millions who maybe did not but still expect us to be the strongest and best opposition that we can be and we will be.
Now I said this before and I will say that again, if the Prime Minister and his team bring forward constructive policy in the national interest we will support them and we will work with them, a good example of that is the child care legislation. We want to see implemented for the safety of children in child care centres across this country. But if they do not do that, if they bring forward legislation not in the national interest and not in the interest of Australians then we will fight them every step of the way.
*Predicting now they lose more seats.
Also happening today, Sussan Ley will address the joint party room ahead of the week’s parliament sittings.
What a fun time for her! The Coalition’s primary vote (according to Newspoll) is at 29%. That is also the representation of the Coalition in the house of representatives (a historic low. Before that, the lowest was 31% and that version of the Liberal party collapsed). The Newspoll analysis breaks down this as about 23-24% support for the Liberals.
It is even worse when you break it down for the Nationals, which hold at best, 6% of the primary vote.
One Nation is doing better than the Nationals.
You know – the same Nats that are demanding to set Coalition policy? Despite being, at best, a fringe party with fringe representation? Yeah.
Meanwhile, Anthony Albanese, his son Nathan and a few friends (security detail) walked from The Lodge to Parliament today to start the day off, as captured by The New Daily’s Mike Bowers:
For those who didn’t see the news yesterday, ABC reporter Peter Ryan passed away yesterday.
Anthony Albanese paid tribute on twitter.
Events have a way of dictating responses, which is why the federal government is trying to come up with a national solution to the working with children checks.
You would have seen the horrific reports that have led to the calls for the government response.
Attorney-general Michelle Rowland told Sky News yesterday that a national working with children checks is the first standing item on her agenda for meeting with the first law officers (a standing meeting of attorney-generals) and that there are other recommendations in the 2015 Royal Commission into Child Sexual Abuse which can be looked at.
(Yes, the report that is now 10 years old)
Education minister Jason Clare has also been tasked with finding solutions. So while the government will be looking to put its agenda to work, it is also going to have to find solutions to this, and quite quickly.
Checking in on Tasmania, and the state is in for another drawn-out round of negotiations, with both the Liberals and Labor falling short of majority government. The Liberals are in a better spot – with Labor dropping to nine seats to the incumbent government’s 14.
But that doesn’t mean it is over. Oh no. This IS Tasmania after all, which means there is no guarantee that Jeremy Rockliff will be able to form government. So Labor is also speaking to independents across the crossbench.
Bridget Archer won her bid for a state seat, after losing her seat at the federal election, which will make Eric Abetz turn that delightful shade of purple estimates watchers may recall.
Hello and welcome back to Australia Institute Live!
It’s been quite a few lifetimes since parliament last sat (in March) and while the election campaign was only 37 days, it too felt like a lifetime.
As Anthony Albanese told his new MPs at Government House at a special reception yesterday:
I acknowledge Jodie and Nathan for the sacrifices that they have made for me during what seemed like a lot longer than 37 days, the campaign. I’ve been going since 5 January. I will have a day off at some stage, not withstanding some of the commentary made from time to time. But at some stage, maybe before the end of the year, I will have some time off. But they give up a lot. As do all of the families of your representatives.
Whether you’re elected for the first time or on multiple occasions, your families won’t see as much of you as they would like and you won’t see as much of them as you would like. You come back – for the little ones, you come back home after a week sitting and there will be changes in your sons or daughters or the children that you care for and missing out on those moments is a big deal. It’s a big sacrifice for them as well as for you, and today is about acknowledging the families and saying thank you to them as we go forward.
The world as we knew it, has changed. America is completely untrustworthy (whether it ever was trustworthy is a question for another time). Israel’s war on Gaza has intensified and spread across the Middle East, with Palestinians still be slaughtered on a daily basis. The first week of parliament will not be able to ignore these global events – anti-genocide protesters have already descended on Canberra to ensure that Gaza and Palestine are not forgotten by the new parliament, while urging them to act.
Those protests will continue throughout the week.
While Albanese has just returned from a very successful trip to China, Australia still has not worked out how to handle Trump’s America. That too is going to have ramifications, with Trump threatening tariffs on Australia’s medical exports (of up to 200%) and US pharmaceutical companies attempting to destroy the PBS.
Domestically, the Albanese government has said that it will be “humble” and stick to its election commitments, keeping that small target. There is some tension within the Labor caucus to push for more, so that is something to keep an eye on.
But the polls are in Labor’s favour, with the latest Newspoll showing an increase in both primary support for Labor and the 2PP. The Coalition are at 29%, which incidentally matches its representation in the House of Representatives. That’s a new record low.
So join us as we take you through the day before the parliament sits. You have researchers, experts and more to answer your questions and help guide you all through it. Amy Remeikis will be your blog mistress.
Ready? I am not. But coffee number two is on, so let’s get into it!
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