Australia Institute Live: Day 32 of the 2025 election campaign. As it happened.

Thanks again for joining us – you are building a lovely community and we are truly humbled by your trust. And your humour keeps us going. We will be working on how to bring in more commenting, but we are loving what you are sending us (and that includes all your messages).
We will be back tomorrow with Day 33 of this campaign – we are almost there!

So have a lovely night (it is cold and raining in Canberra, so it will be a rugged up one here) and we hope to see you back bright and early.

Until then – take care of you. Ax

There is also a growing school of thought that One Nation could take a senate seat off the Coalition in NSW. Maybe South Australia. Possibly Tasmania (where her daughter Lee is running) And the Coalition could lose a seat in Queensland, with Gerard Rennick splitting the conservative vote there.

So yes, the house of reps is the main game, but don’t lose sight of the chamber of review.

There has also been a bit of reaction to Mark Carney’s win in Canada from Canadian groups involved in climate causes – something to be learned here, from the Australian perspective, you would think:

Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood, Senior Researcher, Climate, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives:

“The Liberal election victory proves that climate action is still a winning political proposition in Canada. Despite recent backsliding on carbon pricing, the Mark Carney government remains committed to important policies for reducing emissions and promised new efforts to accelerate major climate-friendly infrastructure projects, such as high-speed rail and east-west electricity transmission. However, the Liberals’ climate plans do not go far enough to meet Canada’s own domestic climate targets—let alone Canada’s fair share of the global climate effort. The hard work now begins to strengthen Canada’s climate policies in the face of increasingly costly extreme weather events. Fortunately, the future of global economic growth lies in clean power, clean manufacturing and energy efficiency, so Canada has every incentive to double down on climate action.”

Nick Bridge CMG was UK Special Representative for Climate Change 2017 to 2023. Nick was previously Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the OECD from 2011 to 2016. He served as Chief Economist at the UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office and Head of Global Economy Department. He has served for over a decade in diplomatic postings to China, Japan and the United States:

“Mark Carney is well-respected internationally and can be an out-sized voice for intensified cooperation – rather than division – between an alliance of responsible nations. If he can lead and empower Canadian citizens and organisations to work together to align economic, social and environmental goals, then Canada can play a responsible role internationally towards a more sustainable economic system and avoidance of climate and ecological collapse.”  

Tim Gray, Executive Director, Environmental Defence Canada:

“With a new mandate as Prime Minister, Mark Carney will now have the opportunity to take bold action on the ideas he has long advocated for. He can lead the implementation of a rapid shift to clean energy and a climate-solutions oriented financial system. He can lead Canada in a march forward with the rest of the world toward a prosperous new economy while the U.S. turns backward.”

Caroline Brouillette, Executive Director, Climate Action Network Canada:

“Canadians want the next government to do more on climate action; the polls have shown it, and now the election results have confirmed it. With the election over, Prime Minister Carney has the opportunity to practice what he has preached for years, and kickstart a green transformation that will build our country’s resilience for decades to come. That requires picking a lane with regard to energy: no more flirting with fossil fuel expansion and new pipelines, which would come with staggering costs to our wallets and our planet. Instead, the new federal government must focus its attention on building a renewable-powered electricity grid as the backbone of a new economy in line with Canadian values.”

We kept the blog open in case anything happened, and well, not a lot did.
I can tell you the Liberals are very worried about the seat of Sturt in South Australia though, and that they are not confident of retaking Boothby.

Flinders is on the watch list and Brisbane is ‘too close to call’ between Labor and the Coalition, although apparently some of the heat has come off the Liberal campaign in Ryan.

Kevin Hogan is starting to make calls about support for the Nationals leadership, along with Bridget McKenzie. Ted O’Brien is (laughably, but hey – stranger things have happened) looking if there is any support for him making a bid for the Liberals’ leadership.

Calare could go Nationals or independent, although Andrew Gee has lost some of his vote. Nuclear as a policy is in the absolute doldrums – no one really likes it. There is unhappiness with the Coalition spending money on trying to make Bendigo a marginal seat because – why? Especially when other seats (Calare, Cowper, Wannon, Monash, etc) need defending. Barnaby Joyce is keeping his head DOWN to ensure that there is not even a whiff of a fingerprint on the Nationals campaign result. (That way Littleproud owns it all) Labor could win Bulwinkle and the Greens are firming on Wills. The best gains for the Coalition still seem to be in Victoria, although that too is on the bubble.

By and large it seems like voters are gritting their teeth and giving Labor another chance. But Labor won’t have too many more chances to use power. So that will be the next question.

Sue has responded to Jason Fallinski’s fundraising push with a very good point:

This looks an awful lot like those over-the-top fundraising emails Trump sends out almost every day. WE NEED TRUTH IN POLITICAL ADVERTISING/COMMUNICATION LAWS NOW!

AAP’s Maeve Bannister has written on some of the women candidates challenging for electorates this election:

Female candidates are hoping to change the face of politics this election, with one independent aiming to become the first woman to ever represent her seat in parliament. 

More than 40 candidates across 10 parties are alumni of Women for Election, which aims to enable and empower women from all walks of life – and all sides of politics – to run for public office.

In the most recent parliament following the 2022 election, 44 per cent of MPs were female, up from 26 per cent in 2002. 

For Claire Ferres Miles, an independent running in the Liberal-held Victorian seat of Casey,  becoming a member of parliament would be an opportunity to represent her community on issues that matter to them.

She ran in 2022 after a whirlwind campaign and gained 8.3 per cent of the vote. 

“In Casey we have never had a female MP and we have been represented by the Liberal Party for 41 years,” she told AAP. 

“People feel like we’ve been forgotten because we were a safe seat for so long, but this time around it is winnable.” 

An unfortunate part of this year’s campaign has been the gendered abuse Ms Ferres Miles has seen, particularly in graffiti on her corflutes. 

But Labor candidate for the rural Victorian seat of Flinders Sarah Race believes a furry friend helped ensure her corflutes were not targeted. 

“I’ve got my dog on my poster and we are wondering if having him on there is a factor deterring graffiti,” she said. 

Flinders has been a Liberal seat for 40 years and is currently held by first-term MP Zoe McKenzie. 

Women for Election was a key part of Ms Race’s decision to run, equipping her with the knowledge she needed to embark on a campaign. 

While the organisation helps to arm candidates with the knowledge they need, it does not get involved in the campaigns once launched.

“We watch everyone’s campaigns like proud parents,” Women for Election chief executive Licia Heath said.

“It’s not our role to tell women what party they should run for, it’s our role to make an opaque process more transparent.” 

Ms Heath also reminds alumni that running is winning and they might not necessarily be successful on the first go. 

“It took Julia Gillard three times to run before she was elected,” she said.

Liberal candidate for the Sydney seat of Barton Fiona Douskou hopes the fourth time is the charm.

She’s taking on Labor candidate Ash Ambihaipahar, who is looking to replace retiring former Indigenous Australians minister Linda Burney. 

“This is my fourth time running a campaign, and I decided to step forward because I’ve seen first-hand how decisions at every level of government affect our daily lives,” Ms Douskou said.

Harsimran Kaur, running for the Australia’s Voice Party in the Senate, said the campaign had been full of ups and downs. 

“It’s hard to get people to consider the minor parties … it’s even harder for a diverse candidate to get public trust, even if they are born in Australia,” she said.

Meanwhile, Greens candidate Emilie Flynn is challenging Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles in his Geelong seat of Corio.

“I don’t think that we should look at anybody as having a safe seat just because they’ve been there for a long time and have a senior position,” she said.

We did a quick fact check (Dutton said 2.7% when asked) but Jim Chalmers is punching the air right now.

Former Liberal MP turned NSW Liberal president, turned almost going back into politics, turned Australians for Prosperity (a Liberal aligned campaign outfit) Jason Falinski would like you to know that the TEALS ARE ON THE ROPES! His evidence? A couple of Australian articles. Here’s his latest fundraising push:

There is good news. The so-called “teal independents” are scrambling. Simon Holmes à Court, the mastermind behind their campaigns, sent a desperate fundraising email begging his tech bro billionaires for a cool million dollars. Why?

Because communities who voted for Teals like Zoe Daniel, Dr Monique Ryan, Dr Sophie Scamps, and Kate Chaney in 2022 are waking up to the fact they have been dishonest and have not delivered.

Holmes à Court admitted that Zoe, Dr Monique, Dr Sophie, and Kate are in serious danger of losing their seats. And here’s the kicker: they are possibly too stretched to save even Allegra Spender. They’ve already poured millions into Bradfield alone, and their war chest is running dry.

Michael has responded to some of Peter Dutton’s comments in his press conference:

This js not to defend any form of vandalism, however in his response Dutton says “… we employ security guards now at booths because ETU workers and CFMEU workers intimidate older ladies. …”.

If this is true:
1. What are the AEC officials doing at these booths are they are pro-active in addressing such behaviour?
2. Why weren’t the police called to address such behaviour?
3. Furthermore, employing security guards in “public” spaces i.e. AEC hire the buildings & not political parties wouldn’t appear to an appropriate nor acceptable practice.

If it isn’t true:
1. Is this another example of Dutton’s use of scare campaigns eg. People are afraid to go shopping for fear of being attacked; African gangs in Melbourne (historical).
2. Wouldn’t this be a libellous/slanderous claim against these unions?
3. What evidence is provided that these alleged people are ETU/CFMEU members?

Seems like your divorced parents are fighting again

Anthony Albanese has responded to Mark Carney’s victory in the Canadian election – which was basically called 30 minutes after the polls closed.

Well, looks very positive for Mark Carney, and I congratulate him. I’ve had a couple of really warm conversations with him. I thank him for defending Vegemite, of course, a really practical outcome of the friendship that we have between Australia and Canada. We have a close relationship, we’re very similar countries, both part of the Commonwealth, we share a lot in common, and I congratulate Mark Carney.
 

Q: What does it mean for the western alliance that an incumbent wins?
 
Albanese:

It’s good that Mark Carney, I think, has shown in the short time that he’s Prime Minister, that he’s determined to represent the national interests of Canada. His re-election will be a significant victory for him and his party. I congratulate him. It’s important that the democratic processes take place. We should never take them for granted.

Q: He stood up long and hard to Donald Trump?
 
Albanese

Well, Mark Carney has stood up for Canada’s national interest, just as I stand up for Australia’s national interest, we’re both Five Eyes countries, of course, so I look forward to building on the relationship that I’ve already built with Mark Carney.
 

Q: A good omen for you though?

Albanese:

I think every election is different, and we take absolutely nothing for granted. Australians will have their say. Canadians have had their say today, and they’ve determined that Mark Carney will be re-elected.

Greens leader Adam Bandt also held a press conference earlier today where he was asked about Anthony Albanese campaigning in the Greens electorate of Griffith:

The Prime Minister has chosen the electorate of Griffith to announce Labor’s plan to push house prices up even further, give $180 billion in handouts to wealthy property investors, and back unlimited further rent rises.

Max Chandler-Mather is the member for renters and first home buyers. Max Chandler-Mather gives up part of his salary for free school breakfasts. He fights for his community, and he has done more than any member of parliament to put renters and first home-buyers on the political agenda.

If the Prime Minister is more interested in evicting one of the few renters from Parliament than fixing the housing crisis, I think the Prime Minister’s got his priorities wrong.”

And on housing, Bandt said:

We know what it’s going to take to fix the housing crisis.

We need to cap rent increases. We need to build more public homes that people can afford to rent and buy, rather than knocking them down, as Labor is doing right across Melbourne, and ensure that in this wealthy country of ours, everyone has an affordable place to live.

One of the ways we can do that is by regulating the big banks. The Greens will regulate the big banks to stop them ripping you off on your mortgage. Under the Greens’ plan, the big banks would have their profit margins on your mortgage regulated.

At the moment, the big banks take money from the Reserve Bank and then hand it on to people and make a tidy profit along the way. The Greens want to regulate that and require the big banks to offer a low rate mortgage product that people can choose to take up if they want to. This would save the average mortgage holder about $5,000 every year.”

Earlier today, Jason Clare held a presser where he said:

Peter Dutton has serious questions to answer today when he fronts the media in just a few minutes time, about the revelations on Four Corners last night, and this is what those questions are that he needs to answer.
 
One, why didn’t he declare his interest in child care businesses for the two year period between 2014 and 2016?
 
Two, every time the Child Care Subsidy was discussed in Cabinet, did he declare a conflict of interest to his colleagues and step out of those Cabinet discussions?
 
And three, what else did he fail to declare?
 
Normally, when things get tougher, Peter Dutton, he goes into hiding. But he can’t do that today. He’s got a front up to the media, and he’s got to answer questions. Yesterday, when he was asked tough questions like this by the media, he just refused to answer them, and he stonewalled. He can’t keep doing that today. He can’t do that every day up until election day.
 
What we know is this. We know that Peter Dutton failed to declare his interest in child care businesses when the Government that he was a member of was investing billions of dollars into the child care industry through a new subsidy.
 
What we need to know is, why? Why did he fail to declare his financial interest in child care businesses?
 
Now as we get closer and closer to election day, Peter Dutton gets angrier and angrier. Yesterday, he was attacking journalists. Yesterday, he was even attacking voters. The Australian people don’t want aggro, they want answers. They don’t want the incredible sulk. They just want a bit of honesty. And they deserve a bit of honesty. And if Peter Dutton can’t give answers to these questions today, then it’ll just show that he’s not ready to govern and that he’s not fit to be the Prime Minister of Australia. Happy to take some questions.

The Canadian voters have clearly given President Trump the elbow, or as we would say “the finger”. Whether Prime Minister Carney gets to govern in his own right, or as head of a minority government, the outcome, in the face of almost certain defeat three months ago, is a stunning event in Canadian political history. But it is an even more stunning development in US-Canada relations. The only path to Canada’s incorporation into the US is war. And last time around, in 1812, Canada won – maybe not as significant as Napolean’s defeat at the gates of Moscow, but there we are. While the leaders of Australia’s two major parties maintain their supine deference to Trump and all things American, the Canadians have shown the world what happens when an ally has skin in the game. To protect his elbows, Trump will stick to golf, rather than ice hockey.

Q: Twice this week you’ve had a go at the media saying they’re hate media, you called some journalists activists. What questions have you taken issue with?

Dutton:

I think what Australians are concentrating on only days out from the election is not the feelings of, you know, with respect, anyone but…

Q: You’re the one that’s taken issue.

Dutton:

They’re interested in what’s better for their family at this election and that’s to vote for their Liberal and National candidate. Nathaniel behind me has done a great job. Today’s announcement will change lives for the better. We know a Liberal National Coalition government will mean a 25 cent a litre reduction for petrol from day one. It will mean $1200 back by way of a tax rebate. It will mean your kids and grandkids have the dream of home ownership realised under a Coalition Government. Isn’t blaming the media just a convenient excuse at this point of the campaign? The final point I’d make is we’ll feel safer as a country and that’s incredibly important, because at the moment…

Q: What about this press conference?

Dutton:

The Prime Minister has had no interest in stopping the gangs, stopping illegal tobacco coming across the borders. I want to keep our countries safe and that’s exactly what we’ll do. Thank you very much.

Q: What about transparency?

Q: Will you front up to…..

Dutton walks away

Q: You frequently tout that the Coalition opposed $100 billion of Labor spending but $100 billion opposed doesn’t mean a saving. Do you concede that will be hard to claw back and you haven’t detailed where the savings are coming from?

Dutton:

We’ve made commitments in relation to many programs and they’ve been properly funded. We’ve gone through all of the numbers with PBO in relation to a number of policies and we’ll release that detail. But, look, what Australians know and what generations of Australians know is that the Liberal Party will always manage the economy more effectively. The home-grown inflation that the Reserve Bank Governor has warned of won’t be an issue under us. We’ll have downward pressure on inflation and therefore, interest rates will always be lower under a Coalition Government. We’re going to provide support to families, immediate support to deal with the pressures that families are facing. And we will clean up the mess that we will inherit. We’ll get our country back on track and we’re going to help young families get into home ownership. I think that’s incredibly important and I might do one or two more and then we’ll have to go.

Q: Mark Carney is on track to win the Canadian election. What impact do you think Donald Trump might have had on the Conservative Party? Are you worried that will influence the election results here?

Peter Dutton:

I haven’t seen the results yet. We’ve had a busy day and we’ll wait and see the results in relation to Canada. Look, the point I’d make here is that this election is between Anthony Albanese and myself. On the one hand, Labor has driven up the cost of everything over the last few years and they’re promising to see costs increase even further. On the other hand, the Coalition has a positive plan to get our country back on track. We’re going to reduce the cost of petrol by 25 cents a later, give $1,200 back by way of a tax rebate, restore the dream of home ownership and keep our country safe. I think that’s what Australians are interested in in this election.

Q: Anthony Albanese asked you a question around whether you’d be comfortable to have a nuclear energy site in your own backyard. You said yes. He’s had every opportunity to repeatedly say that. Can you clarify if you would have a nuclear energy site in your seat. And can I get your response to protesters crashing the press conference that was going to be at a junior sporting club today?

Dutton:

In relation to the kids who I think were disappointed to have their event disrupts, it would have been nice to spend more time with them but there were Greens and teal supporters dressed up and it was a stunt. Unfortunately, the football coaches that we spoke to were really annoyed, actually, and upset at the protests.

It made no difference to me in terms of protest activity, but it disrupted an event where we wanted to talk about helping kids play junior rugby. We wanted to talk about an upgrade in the change room facilities so young girls didn’t have to go into the canteen to get changed into their footy gear. And the teals and Greens always pull all sorts of stunts. We’ve been upfront in relation to the seven sites that we’ve identified for the end-of-use coal-fired power stations where there’s already polls and wires going out so you save 28,000 new kilometres of poles and wires that Labor has to build and those seven sites were identified around the country.

There’s not one in my electorate. So the Prime Minister can play all sorts of games. I mean we’ve been up to have a look and speak to the fishermen and fishing industry and tourism industry in the Hunter.

Has the Prime Minister been out there talking to those communities about offshore wind? No, he hasn’t. As Australians get closer to Election Day, they realise that there’s a choice to be made. On the one hand, we’ve got three more years of cost of everything going up. On the other hand we’ve got a positive plan to make sure we get our country back on track and if you support your Liberal or National candidate, that’s how we can do that.

Q: You’ve said that you’ll ditch build-to-rent and the HAFF. Why not leave them and add your measures on to the point asked earlier on top?

Dutton:

In relation to the amount of money that’s been spent, the ratings agencies are warning that this Government is a disaster (this is not true) and that if we face a global recession, we’re going to be in all sorts of strife under Labor. We have to manage our economy well. I want to provide immediate relief now, so a 25 cent per litre cut in fuel tax, $1200 back in money you’ve paid in taxes. That’s the immediate support and from there we can fix up the energy system, we can bring the prices down of electricity and gas and we can help Australians recover from a really bad three years under Labor.

Q: You’ve mentioned the $1200 tax offset and temporarily halving the petrol excise. They will cost $16 billion. You’ve looked at tax cuts to pay for higher defence spending. What will you cut to pay for these two signature policies?

Dutton:

We’ve provided some of the costings and we’ll provide those costings in due course in relation to our policies but they’ll demonstrate that the bottom line will always be better under a Liberal government. We’ll always manage the economy more effectively. We’ll provide essential services. We’ll give the rebate back to Australians to help with their immediate needs. You saw this morning, speaking to families and small business-owners, some of them had have had their electricity bills double, some up 40% and Australians can’t afford three more years of Labor.

Q: Members of a Church form early known as the Exclusive Brethren have been flocking to seats volunteering in support of Liberal Party. How have the Liberal Party recruit sod many members of a religious sect who don’t vote to hand out for them?

Dutton:

The Liberal Party has not recruited people from particular religions. We’re a volunteer-based organisation. People can volunteer and provide support to their local Liberal National Party candidate. I’d encourage them to do that. The Prime Minister says he hates Tories and Tory supporters etc. That’s an issue for him. We’re not discriminating against anybody on the basis of their religion. We have people of I suspect every religion supporting us and I’ll make sure that we have the ability to get our message out, which we do through our volunteers, because there are many Australians in their millions who can’t afford three more years of this Labor government.

Q: But, Mr Dutton, isn’t it weird that…

Dutton moves on.

Q: You’ve touted your party as plan to address domestic violence. I was wondering if you could explain to me how that plan squares with keeping a candidate who blame’s someone mother for their daughter experiencing domestic violence? I know you’re going to say the candidate apologised for those comments but doesn’t it demonstrate the strength of your commitment to the issue if an apology is enough for someone to sit in the party room?

Peter Dutton:

It shows, I think, our resolve and my lifetime resolve in terms of defeating the scourge of violence against women and children. That’s been the position I’ve taken and I’ve demonstrated that through words and action, from being a police officer through to this day, in terms of the money we’ve invested, the actions we’ve taken, the visas we’ve cancelled of offenders who have committed sexual offences against women. I’ve condemned the comments you referred to. They’ve been apologised for. I’m not going to take a lecture from the Labor Party.

Q: It’s not a lecture from the Labor Party. I’m asking the question.

Dutton:

I’m not going to take a lecture from the Labor Party in terms of candidate selection. They have people out there who are questionable to say the least. You have a question?

Q: You say you model your leadership on John Howard. John Howard made a concerted decision to preference One Nation last. Why are you preferencing One Nation second in the majority of electorates across the country?

Dutton:

We’ve taken the decision that we want to make sure that Australians can preference us first. That’s the most important way to be able to change this government and I want to hake sure that we can change the government to get our country back on track. That’s the reality and I want to make sure that we can support Australians with their cost-of-living crisis and you can do that by voting 1 for your Liberal and National Party candidate and that’s exactly what we’ll do.

Q: But why are you preferencing One Nation?

Dutton:

We have to keep moving on.

Q: But why are you preferencing One Nation?

Dutton:

I’ve answered that question. We’re really…

Q: You about why they should preference you first, but why One Nation second?

Dutton:

I’m happy to take one each or we’ll have to cut it short.

Q: Can I ask for reaction to vandalism of your office in your electorate this morning? You talk about getting inflation down. Do you know what the current inflation rate is?

Dutton:

Firstly in relation to the office, I want to make sure that we have disagreements and we can have disagreements. That’s fine. But we need to do it better than we have at the moment and to see Greens supporters and others out there shooting at booths, you know, we employ security guards now at booths because ETU workers and CFMEU workers intimidate older ladies. And you see the vandalism, that is outrageous.

So I just want to make sure… we want to support our democratic processes. But I don’t want to see a situation where we’ve got people who are being intimidated and 2.7% is the answer to your question. (It is actually 2.4%)

Q: There are warnings today against both major parties spending big and off Budget. Do you acknowledge that your election spend-a-thon would be part of the problem, potentially risking Australia’s credit rating if were to win power?

Dutton:

I think the contrast you’ve seen between the way in which Labor’s managed the Budget and the way we manage it is chalk and cheese*. A Liberal Coalition government will always manage the Budget more effectively. We’ve put in place supports which don’t have recurrent spend year after year, locking that spend in. We’re providing support here and now to provide immediate relief to Australians. That’s why the 25 cent a litre cut in fuel is important. It’s why the $1,200 tax rebate back to Australians – who are working harder than ever under this government to repay their bills – is important as well. We’ll always manage the economy more effectively and Labor will always spend more. When you do, that you drive up inflation which will drive up interest rates and interest rates will always be cheaper under a Coalition government.

This is a stupid debate, but Labor had two surpluses. The support the Coalition did want to lock in – stage three tax cuts – would have locked in massive tax cuts for the richest 10% of Australian earners.

Q: The Prime Minister often talks about how he’s been underestimated throughout his political career and even in this election campaign and I wanted to know do you think you have been underestimated by voters, by around you?

Dutton:

I think there are a long way to go and people are undecided. I want them to hear about our positive plan for our country, a 25 cent a litre cut in fuel tax, $1200 back to help but the immediate needs you’ve got and I want to restore the dream of home ownership and we can manage the economy well and keep us safe. That’s the vision that I have for our country, both in the short term and the longer term. I want to transform the energy system in our country so that we can bring prices down and I have a very strong belief we live in the best country in the world. We need strong leadership to see us through uncertainly times and that’s exactly what I offer the Australian people.

The hastily rearranged southern highlands press conference has been hastily rearranged and Dutton is in Moss Vale.

Now, he is going more and more to the right in his talking points – which maybe says more than we realise.

There is a lot of talk about the Coalition vote, particularly the Nationals vote, starting to tank in some seats (Cowper, Calare, Monash, Wannon, Hunter and Bendigo) but in some of those seats One Nation does ok. One Nation doesn’t do great nationally – but in the seats they do well in, they can make an impact and help major parties get across the line.

But their vote is often splintered. Hence the wooing from the Coalition. Dutton is doing Paul Murray for the second time this campaign – his first time round he spoke about the ‘woke’ education department, without actually being able to point to what he thought was ‘woke’ about the curriculum, so who know what is next.

I have asked our voting expert, Bill Browne to take a look at One Nation’s vote to give you some more information.

AAP has reported on the protest which upended Peter Dutton’s plans for a press conference:

A trio of unionists clad in hazmat suits and wielding mock Geiger counters have gatecrashed Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s press conference in a marginal seat.

Mr Dutton was at Sanctuary Point on the NSW South Coast to make a modest funding announcement for a local junior rugby league team when the pantomiming protesters, led by South Coast Labour Council secretary Arthur Rorris, walked onto the field and shouted mock warnings about radiation.

“Stay back everybody,” they warned, pretending to measure out a site for a nuclear power plant.

“We’re just checking for radiation.”

Mr Dutton was about to hold a press conference alongside the Liberal candidate for Gilmore, Andrew Constance, who is making his second attempt to win the electorate won by Labor’s Fiona Phillips with just 373 votes in 2022.

It is also the former Liberal NSW state minister’s fifth attempt to enter federal parliament, including two failed senate pushes and another for the lower house seat of Eden-Monaro.

A few more days of campaigning remain before the federal election on Saturday.

The chaos at Sanctuary Point intensified when a group of local kids showed up.

Shoalhaven councillor Selena Clancy encouraged the youngsters to shout over the nuclear farce.

“You’re scaring the children!” Cr Clancy yelled, while a club official called Mr Rorris an “absolute muppet”.

Mr Dutton had been chatting with locals when the disruption occurred.

One supportive attendee, Michael King, said Mr Constance had his vote while hinting at his disappointment with Labor’s climate policy.

“We cannot make any difference in our global environment, so why would you shoot yourself in the foot?*” he told reporters.

Climate change is a contentious issue in the electorate, with Climate 200-backed independent Kate Dezarnaulds taking aim at Mr Constance for a perceived retreat from his support for climate action following the 2019/20 bushfires.

But some elements of the electorate are vocally against Labor’s renewable energy push, specifically offshore wind farm developments off the picturesque coast. 

Liberal Party media advisers were unable to clear off the protesters, and the local police in attendance were powerless to move them on from a public space, so the press conference was cancelled and the media pack bundled back onto Mr Dutton’s campaign bus.

*This sort of defeatist attitude is infuriating.

Oliver says:

While voters may feel like our elections actually go on forever, at least we can be thankful our elections aren’t like those in the United States which truly do seem to be perpetual where candidates campaign from the day after the Presidential election to win the mid-terms, and then from the day after the mid-terms to win the Presidential election, rise and repeat ad nauseum.

Keep up the great work, Amy and team, your work on the blog, especially the calls for sanity in the face of this ‘debate’ around Anzac Day / Welcome to Country is one of the few things keeping me sane this election season.

Thanks Oliver

The press conference Peter Dutton abandoned due to nuke protests was in the seat of Gilmore, on the NSW south coast, narrowly held by Labor.

Our new report out today (!!) shows that just 28 journalists live in Gilmore, making home to less journos than 100 electorates out of 150.

It ranks alongside Flinders and Monash (both Vic) and just above Peter Dutton’s electorate of Dickson.

Our report shows that few journalists are based in regional and outer suburban areas, making it hard to cover an election that is supposedly fought in these electorates.

A new poll published on CNN shows the American public’s downbeat outlook on the economy and the impact of tariffs. When you dig into the data, it’s clear many Trump voters are feeling the consequences of Trump doing what he promised to do.

Surveyed in the past two weeks, around 1-in-5 or 1-in-4 of those who voted for Trump now believed that the president has worsened America’s economic conditions and increased cost of living, and expressed pessimism about the economy. And about 1-in-10 of them feel that increased tariffs, even those targeting China, were bad policy! Why would you vote for him in the first place then…

Overall, only about one-third of the public agree that tariffs against China were good, while half of the public believe it’s bad policy.

Nearly half of Trump voters seem resigned to the view that tariffs would cause short-term pain for the economy, though most of them still seemed to believe that they would bring long-term benefits. The rest of the country strongly disagree, of course.

These numbers will likely continue shifting against Trump, since only about 1-in-3 of his voters agree that the tariffs would help their personal finances or the industries they worked in, though even fewer thought the tariffs would directly harm them. However, if Trump continues down this path, the growing pain on ordinary Americas should bring more to the realisation that those ‘long-term benefits’ will never come.

What has forced Trump into a partial retreat was not the sentiments of working-class Americans, but the bond market, as the rising borrowing cost and depreciating US dollar signalled investors voting with their feet and leaving the US.

If Trump’s base starts to turn against the policy as well, then he’d probably have to go back to square one, but the MAGA movement itself was fuelled by dissatisfaction with that status quo in the first place!

ICYMI
Another story out of the Kooyong electorate – Libs threatening the local council on the permit that has been issued to all parties on the use of corflutes at the pre-poll booth.

Would this be the ultimate example of “fattening the pig on market day”.

Thanks for the work on the blog.

Greg (hi Tuck!) says:

There is something inherently wrong with an electoral system where all policies and costings aren’t made public before people vote. Early voting and postal voting see people making judgements without the full facts being presented for scrutiny and analysis. Currently the independent Parliamentary Budget Office legislation means that parties and candidates need only submit their policies and costings by 5:00 pm the day before the election. The verification of these by the PBO is released 30 days after the election!
I am not suggesting that we change the early voting and postal voting options; rather that we put in place measures whereby all parties and all candidates state what they intend to do and how they intend to pay for it, two weeks prior to the election.
For politicians to complain that it would be unfair, perhaps shows a lack of preparedness on to govern. For them to say that people only really pay attention during the last week of an election campaign shows that they think that the public don’t care about or value their vote.
Right now, we have a lot of last-minute policy releases and no costings. This allows pork barrelling to become rife as eleventh-hour pledges are made to marginal electorates. These pledges may amount to nothing after the election, because there never was any money to pay for them.
Politicians are applying for jobs. The closing dates for their full applications should be at the bare minimum two weeks prior to the decision being made. It is like the job applicant saying that they will take the job but only give you their CV after getting the job. No employer would find that acceptable, but politicians believe and expect that their employers should.

Would you look at that – actually standing for something can win you an unwinnable election.

Mark Carney, who took over from the Liberals when it seemed a complete and hopeless case that the party could maintain support for government, is expected to win the election.

A former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Carney came from outside the parliament and took a very different stance in international policy, including immediately muscling up to Trump.

Elbows up, Canada.

Looks like the Coalition campaign has had to reschedule its press conference today after anti-nuclear protesters (in hazmat suits) gatecrashed where the press conference was set up.

Climate and nature crises won’t pause while politics plays out.

The environment doesn’t care who’s in government — but Australians should. If we want to avoid catastrophic climate and biodiversity collapse, the next parliament has a clear path forward.

Here are five urgent, evidence-based actions ready to go:

• No new fossil fuel projects
• Treat environmental protection as national security issue – because it is
• End native forest logging
• End the free ride for polluters
• Plan and build for a different Australia

You can read about in more detail here.

As polls close on election night and the count begins, Richard Denniss, Amy Remeikis and Ebony Bennett will be providing live reaction and analysis.

They’ll be joined by experts to explain the key issues of the campaign, unpack the intricacies of our electoral system, and give a preview of what our next Parliament could look like.

The live blog will also be active on election night!

The white men in the White House are trying to radically reshape modern America.

On the latest episode of After America, Dr Prudence Flowers joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the Trump administration’s attempts to ‘re-masculinise’ the American economy through tariffs, its efforts to undermine trans and reproductive rights, and how culture wars are playing out in Australian politics.

You can listen here:

The AEC just released yesterday’s pre-poll numbers, and they’re a doozy: 830,000 Australians cast their vote early on Monday, bringing the total to over three million (almost 20% of registered voters).

Last election the only day with more than 800,000 pre-poll votes was election eve (which tends to have the most pre-poll votes every election). Even factoring in a pause in early voting compared because of ANZAC day, this election is well on its way to break last election’s early voting record.

Wondering how pre-polling has evolved over time, and what the implications are of so many early votes? You can read more about that here.

Here is one of the Coalition’s mini announcements:

An elected Dutton Coalition Government will commit $3.5 million to build the Bob Proudfoot Pavilion at Francis Ryan Reserve in Sanctuary Point. 

Francis Ryan Reserve is home to the St Georges Basin Dragons Rugby League Club as well as the Bay and Basin Cricket Club. 

The works will see the existing amenities building at Francis Ryan Reserve demolished and replaced with the Bob Proudfoot Pavilion which will include changerooms and amenities for women and match officials, a verandah, a kiosk and store, fitness spaces, a ticket booth, and a terrace comms box. 

Leader of the Opposition, the Hon Peter Dutton MP, said that the Albanese Labor Government has left Sanctuary Point and the South Coast behind. 

“This new pavilion will meet the needs of this growing community and the increased participation of young women and girls in rugby league and cricket. 

“A Coalition Government I lead will never leave Sanctuary Point or the South Coast behind. The community has a powerful and experienced advocate for their needs in Andrew Constance. 

“The South Coast can’t afford another three years of neglect by Labor.” 

Meanwhile austerity continues to be the go in New Zealand, as AAP reports:

New Zealanders have been told to expect cuts and not a “lolly scramble” in next month’s budget, as the coalition government slashes its own allowance in order to meet its goal of returning to surplus in 2028.

Like many nations, New Zealand is struggling with a debt blowout due to COVID-era support spending.

Worsening the state of government books, New Zealand is also battling an economic recovery from a tough recession in 2024, with rising unemployment.

In that context, Finance Minister Nicola Willis has pledged to reduce her operating allowance in the May 22 budget to $NZ1.3 billion ($A1.2 billion), down from $NZ2.4 billion ($A2.2 billion).

“We will be spending billions less over the forecast period than would have otherwise been the case,” she said in a speech in Wellington on Tuesday.

“This will reduce the amount of extra borrowing our country needs to do over the next few years and it will keep us on track towards balanced books and debt reduction.”

Why the cuts? Well the conservative government has promised a return to surplus and an increase in defence spending. So what gets cut? Public services.

Albanese treats the last question – the opposition has accused you of a ‘spendathon’ as a dixer (which is rich coming from the opposition given it has been on its own ‘spendathon’ and has matched Labor on a whole heap of policies).

Albanese:

We put out the costings yesterday that we put out the costings that were fully costed out there for all to see. Where are their costings? This mob, to be fair to them it must be difficult for them to find costings because from day-to-day their policies change.

How do you cost things when you are all over the shop? Working from home, on migration, on how to track housing policy: so many areas of some areas they are on the same day is giving different messages depending upon where people live. What we know is that they are combining with One Nation here in other places trying to do these preference deals that you have all sorts of strange occurrences [like] the Exclusive Brethren, which they need to explain going forward.

Where are all these people coming from? Why are they campaigning?

They don’t vote but they all of a sudden have found enthusiasm in their hundreds to travel around the country to hand out how to vote? What is going on there?

We have in the Labor Party, a clear consistent position going forward, of building Australia’s future, people know on Saturday if they want certainty in these turbulent times that they’ll get a tax cut, they get a 5% deposit, for first home buyers, they’ll get free TAFE and a 20 % reduction in student debt. Future Made in Australia. A government that wants to seize the opportunities and take action on climate change is well.

Asked what he has done for renters while prime minister, Albanese says:

That we have increased rental assistance by 45 present. We are the first government since rental assistance came in to have consecutive real increases in rental assistance.

Which does nothing to help lower rents, or even help more people who are struggling financially with their rent because of a) the hoops you have to jump through to receive rental assistance b) landlords usually end up increasing the rent because of the increase in rent assistance and c) the increase has not come anywhere near matching the jumps in rental prices.

So the actual answer here, is nothing.

There is another pointless back and forth about what a credit agency might be thinking.

Albanese is asked when there will be a 2035 emissions target and says:

Under the legislation that was carried in the Parliament we need to receive the advice from the Climate Change Authority when we receive that, the government will consider it. It will be released. Publicly. That’s what how we will set at 2035 target.

Joshua Black

Postdoctoral Research Fellow

Election campaigns come and go, but some go faster than others.

If the current election campaign feels long and sluggish, that may be because there have been few meaningful announcements.

The 2025 election campaign is scheduled to run for 37 days. This makes it roughly average for campaigns over the past thirty years.

However, public holidays and long weekends can shape campaign behaviour and impact voter engagement. The 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections all coincided with the Easter long weekend as well as ANZAC Day. (No federal elections from 1996 to 2016 coincided with a nationwide long weekend or public holiday.)

Public holiday dates over the Easter long weekend vary from one state to another, but as political scientists have shown, the four-day interruption to the campaign sees lower public interest, reduced media coverage and the voluntary suspension of some campaign activity.

With public holidays and long weekends excluded, 2025 is the shortest campaign of the past thirty years at just 32 days of proper campaigning. That includes polling day. It also includes the 22 April 2025, a day on which the major parties suspended their campaigns as a sign of respect for the late Pope Francis.

The law gives the prime minister some discretion in how long the election campaign runs after the House of Representatives is dissolved, but it must run for between 33 and 68 days in total and polling day must be a Saturday.

Beyond that, the timing is up to the PM in consultation with the Governor-General.

The general trend over the past 20 years has been for shorter rather than longer campaigns. The chief exception was 2016. The then-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull pursued a double dissolution in the hope of winning extra Senate seats (he ultimately lost three). Constitutionally, a double dissolution had to be called by 11 May, but the election cycles of the two houses would fall out of sync if polling day occurred before 1 July. The result was an election campaign closer to the maximum length.

And while the formal election campaign is restricted by law, politicians can – and do – start campaigning ahead of any election announcement. Another reason why this election might feel long is because the major parties started campaigning in earnest in January.

In fact, a PM could announce their preferred election date on the first day of each parliament – and give everyone advance notice so they can plan their lives around the date. In 2013 Julia Gillard announced in January her intention to hold an election on 14 September. However, this was seen as a mistake that threw away the advantages of incumbency.

Control over election timing gives PMs a tantalising opportunity to place political expedience over consistency, predictability and fairness. Parliamentary agreements for three-year fixed terms, which the Australia Institute has proposed in the Democracy Agenda for the 48th Parliament, would do much to remove the partisan advantage and opportunism from election timing.

Q: Abrams tanks the government pledged to Ukraine more than six months ago are still here in Australia, is the United States delaying or blocking the transfer of these tanks or is there another reason in Australia to blame for this?

Albanese:

We are working on providing further support for Ukraine. We are contributing like $1.5 billion, 1.3 billion has been direct military support. There are logistical issues of course in moving tanks, not something you can put on a fax machine and you need to make sure you get it right. But we are continuing to back Ukraine. It’s one of the big differences as well at this election campaign, there was bipartisanship on support for Ukraine. We have said we are prepared to inner peace situation to be part of a coalition of the willing. Keeping the peace, Peter Dutton has opposed that.

Jim Chalmers comes in here too:

Very briefly, is a very important difference. The savings we are making build on the progress that Katy and the team have made over the first three years saving billions of dollars investing in the capacity of the Australian public service but winding back some of these outrageous levels of spending on contractors and consultants.

We showed an ability to do this. We’ll make the savings without coming up to people or wages or programs and here’s another important difference here. Peter Dutton wants to sack 41,000 people with all the consequence that will mean for veterans and people on pensions and payments. That’s the difference. The reason he has this policy is because he implements his policies directly from the United States. He wants the Americanisation of health, public service and education. He draws his inspiration from the policies and politics and slogans of the United States.

We believe in the capacity of the Australian public service, that’s why we are investing in their capacity and one of the reasons we’ve been able to do that in a budget which has improved substantially since we came to office is because we’ve been winding back things like expensive contractors and consultants but also travel and hospitality in some of those areas.

This is a fun question.

Q: You criticised Peter Dutton for his cuts to the public service and say that will reduce services to Australians. Aren’t you doing the same thing in a different way? Yesterday with your costings you are cutting consultants. You are cutting consultants and he is cutting public services but both provide service to the public. You are cutting services to the public in a different way.

Albanese:

That is completely not right. What we’re is cutting out some of the waste. Some 54,000 consultants over the period of office. I have met people and I am sure you have as well as a proud Canberran, met people who used to be a deputy secretary of the Department earning reasonable wages, $200,000 for a senior role. Now they are working half the time getting paid double the amount under when the Coalition were in office doing the same thing providing advice as consultants for the big four firms in particular.

A complete collapse.

We saw that 42,000 veterans were denied entitlements. Not anything extra, men and women who served our nation in uniform, some of whom passed away before they got their entitlements they had earned. [The Coalition] had Andrew Gee, you might remember, when he was a Veterans’ Affairs Minister, had to threaten to resign before the 2022 budget and they changed the budget speech, did not change all the budget papers because it was a last-minute thing to try and keep him entertained, because it was such an outrage what had occurred.

Barnaby Joyce as the shadow Veterans’ Affairs Minister in a rare public appearance during this election campaign pointed out as well that that was a problem under the former government. as well. That that was a problem under the former government. What the former government. we are doing, we are backing Australians, Peter Dutton is sacking Australians. And there will be less services whether it’s Services Australia Australian Defence Force, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the National Emergency Management Agency didn’t exist under the former government.

What happens with ASIO, Operation Sovereign Borders, the Australian Signals Directorate. These are security agencies and defence represent more than 20,000 of 68,000 public servants who are currently in Canberra.

41,000 of them are going to be sacked. That will have a devastating impact on Australian services

Jim Chalmers steps in to answer another question about the AAA credit rating:

There will be no reason to lose the AAA if Labor is re-elected. We have shown an enthusiasm for economic management, we have a good record for responsible economic management. I invite you to recall what the budget look like the day we came into office. The Treasury Secretary coming to my place after the election and there were huge deficits as far as the eye could see, we turned into two surpluses. We had this year’s deficit, and after a whole election campaign at the end of the election campaign the budget was in better nick than the start of the election campaign.

The PM is making the same point I make today and I made yesterday and Katy made yesterday is we value the AAA credit rating, we got them stable under Labor.

We know their opinions matter. We are providing exactly the right kind of responsible economic management the ratings agencies value.

Is Anthony Albanese concerned with Peter Dutton’s return to stoking right-wing culture wars?

Albanese:

Peter Dutton has spent a political career stoking division, trying to turn Australians against each other, starting culture wars, I am not interested in culture wars, I am interested in fighting for Australians.

Is Anthony Albanese going to go to Dickson while he is in Brisbane? Albanese started his campaign in Dutton’s seat of Dickson as a bit of rabble rousing and given it it a marginal seat, there are those who think Dutton could lose it (unlikely given the seat’s history. It has always been marginal – so much so that Dutton at one stage tried to unseat Karen Andrews for McPherson, which was a much safer bet (he lost) but when the Coalition is on an upward swing Dickson increases his margin and when its on the nose, the margin gets smaller – but he has held it since 2001.)

Albanese says:

Labor can certainly win what is the most marginal seat in Queensland…we get the sense that we had in the 2022 election, Ali Francis [could] be elected, the member Dickson.

Peter Dutton has gone away from his electorate, not to it, Ali France is committed to the electorate and what’s more Peter Dutton is now saying he wants a nuclear reactor and that electorate as well.

I think Peter Dutton’s key point in this election campaign where he showed a level of arrogance extraordinary very early on when he in an interview said he wanted to live in Kirribilli House. A Queensland Prime Minister who wanted to not live in the national capital but preferred Sydney, to living in the Prime Minister ‘s residence in The Lodge. I think that will go down very badly in his electorate. And will continue to campaign, we are campaigning very hard in Dickson.

A journalist prefaces their question with ‘you had a nice walk in Cabramatta with your Labor candidate yesterday…but before they can finish Albanese says:

I am not frightened of getting out there and talking to people and environments that are not controlled and I must say it is very warm, the reception we got and that is not surprising. Because she is from the community, of the community and will make a fantastic representative for the people of Fowler.

The journalist says they didn’t even get to their question. Which is:

An organisation she founded [while she worked for the former Labor Fowler MP received government grants]. Is there a conflict of interest, the grants were received while she worked for the former Fowler MP. Do you know if a conflict of interest was declared?

Albanese:

Despite the date you network the Liberal Party will do, Tu Le is someone of extraordinary capacity and integrity. She has been involved in not-for-profit community-based organisations in her local community for a long period of time. She will make an extraordinary local member.

Which doesn’t answer the question. Dai Le looks like holding the seat of Fowler.

On campaign interviews, Anthony Albanese says:

I do interviews and I know I did the 7.30 Report last night and I note Peter Dutton has correctly shown strength by doing Paul Murray tonight for the second time in the campaign. I’m sure that will be a rigourous cross-examination of the costings. The truth is there is a big difference between the two sides. Outside have put out our costings, we had a budget on the 25th. We then had the pre-election fiscal outlook and then released our costings yesterday.

Is Jim Chalmers worried by rating’s agency S&P’s assessment that the election spends promised by the major parties this campaign puts the AAA credit rating at risk?

(spoiler – it doesn’t. A AAA credit rating just means Australia can borrow money at a better interest rate because it is more of a sure bet of paying it back. And the ratings agencies look at the 10-year bond yield rate, which as Grog’s points out:

The reality is the best way to gauge the risk of Australia’s debt is to look at the 10 year bond yield on Australian government bonds. In effect this is the interest rate the government pays when it borrows money. At the moment the rate is around 4.4%. Back when S&P gave Australia a AAA rating and back when Australia had budget surpluses due to the mining boom, the rate was around 5.5%.

So Australia is seen as a better investment now then the mining boom.

Jim Chalmers says:

One of the things we have done is put our costings out there. The other side have not. The other thing we have done is currently $78 billion deficit into a $22 billion surplus and followed it up with another so plus and followed up with halving the deficit and the we released yesterday, we made the budget bottom line better. We have improved the budget bottom line by 200 and $7 billion since we came to office. We have improved the bottom line, save some $60 billion in interest payments as well.

While we wait for the questions at Albanese’s press conference:

Almost two years after the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) began operations, it is at a crossroads. 

It is yet to hold a public hearing. Its decision regarding the Robodebt referrals was subject to adverse findings. And its findings so far have been limited.  

Reform is needed if the NACC is to win the confidence of the Australian people.  

It comes as new polling research from The Australia Institute, undertaken in collaboration with the Human Rights Law Centre and Whistleblower Justice Fund, finds Australians overwhelmingly support a Whistleblower Protection Authority. 

Key findings

• 84% of Australians support the establishment of a Whistleblower Protection Authority.  
• Polling research last year found that 67% of Australians say that public hearings should be held more frequently than the current legislation stipulates, under either unlimited circumstances or when a public hearing would be in the public interest.
• Nine thousand Australians have signed a petition calling for five key reforms:
  • Immediately bring forward the independent review of the NACC 
  • Give the NACC the power to hold public hearings whenever it is in the public interest 
  • Expand the Inspector’s powers to review more of the NACC’s operations 
  • Ensure no party has the majority vote on the NACC’s parliamentary committee 
  • Implement a Whistleblower Protection Authority 

“When the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) was created in 2022, Australians had high expectations, given a string of high-profile integrity issues in government had been identified,” said Bill Browne, Director, Democracy & Accountability Program at The Australia Institute. 

“Expanding the scope of the NACC Inspector and allowing for a non-government majority on the committee scrutinising the NACC would improve oversight of this important body. 

“A Whistleblower Protection Authority would support and protect whistleblowers, who risk their own health, careers and, in some cases, freedom in order to expose wrongdoing. 

“The NACC is yet to hold a public hearing, but public hearings are important to ensure that justice is done and to reassure Australians that the NACC is functioning well. 

“Australia Institute polling research confirms that Australians overwhelmingly believe that the NACC should be empowered to hold public hearings whenever they are in the public interest.” 

It is hard hat time for Albanese, who is in the seat of Griffith.

Albanese is at a housing development and accusing the Greens of “holding up” housing developments like the one behind him (the Greens were negotiating for a better spend on housing and rental rights, and also the Coalition refused to even enter negotiations so….)

Max Chandler-Mather is a personal bugbear for Albanese – MCM kinda drives Albanese nuts, with some in Labor speculating its because MCM has similar traits and a lack of respect for position to a young Albanese when he started making a name for himself in Labor politics.

MCM was in the Labor party, but abandoned it for the Greens.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton has also hit the radio this morning, calling in to Brisbane radio 4BC (Brisbane’s version of 2GB) to say that the internal polls for the Coalition were very positive and he thinks that the ‘quiet Australians’ (Scott Morrison’s favourite cohort) would deliver him the Lodge.

There’s a lot of quiet Australians … particularly people in suburbs, who believe that the government hasn’t delivered for them.

I think there are a few surprises coming and there’s no doubt in my mind that we can win this election.”

Morrison used to refer to the “quiet Australians” frequently – which was an expansion of the Howard’s “battlers” and Menzie’s “Forgotten Australians”. Morrison meant white, older, suburban voters of lower to middle class. It is the cohort that Dutton has staked his entire political career on.

Essentially Dutton is asking people to believe that the ‘quiet Australians’ are so quiet they are never polled. And while yes, in 2019 the expectations were that Bill Shorten would win the election, and the two-party preferred polls did have Labor in the lead, the polls were right on the primary vote for each of the major parties, which suggested Labor would fall short. And pollsters have made a lot of adjustments since then and were right about 2022.

Greens leader Adam Bandt is in his own electorate of Melbourne today, to start the campaign day.

He’ll be talking housing and regulating the big banks. Which, you know, are among the most profitable in the world?
Why? Well you and the interest you pay has a massive amount to do with it.

Sandra says:

The Exclusive Brethren doesn’t participate in voting I thought.

They don’t. But that apparently doesn’t stop them from handing out how to vote cards for the Liberal party.

Fiona says:

But omg we need something better than paper straws

To which also, yes. Anyone with a disability, mobility issues, or a toddler knows the struggle. And it is not feasible to carry around reuseable ones (forget to wash them etc). But it is also part of the transfer of responsibility fossil fuel companies and the big polluters have managed, making us all responsible for cleaning up their messes.

Back to James Paterson, who is asked whether he agrees with Peter Dutton that a Welcome to Country may not be appropriate at an Anzac Day ceremony.

Again. The ONLY reason this is on the national agenda is because of NAZIS.

Paterson:

What Peter said is, in his judgement, he thinks probably the majority of veterans don’t want to have a Welcome to Country at these events, but he also said it’s a matter for organisers. We’re not proposing new legislation or laws to dictate when there should or shouldn’t be Welcome to Countrys. We’ve said we think they’re appropriate at some events, and Peter’s given the good example of the opening of Parliament. He says he thinks it can be overdone. We’ve all seen events why where on Zoom calls people are doing various acknowledgements of country or conferences where every single person does it. It cheapens it if it’s tokenistic.

For Dolly’s sake – an Acknowledgement of Country is different to a Welcome to Country in that it is largely done by white people, acknowledging the country that they are on. What are they even on about at this stage? Paterson and co are deliberately conflating Welcome to Country, which is a ceremony welcoming people to an Indigenous person’s country, which is performed by Indigenous people who belong to that country. It teaches you about the land and sends a message as to how we can all care for each other, through the land.

An Acknowledgement of Country is something anyone can do, acknowledging the land that they are on and the peoples who belong to that land. It is literally the bare minimum. The absolute bare minimum.

But because NAZIS gatecrashed an Anzac ceremony complaining about Welcome to Country ceremonies, now we have to question the bare minimum on inclusion we do. WTAF is happening.

Albanese was also asked over his comment ‘kindness isn’t weakness’ in one of the leaders’ debates (which I maintain is a paraphase of a Lana Del Rey quote)

Q: You used the phrase ‘kindness is not a weakness’ in the second Leaders’ Debate. What do you mean by that?
 
Albanese:

What I mean by that, Sarah, is that Peter Dutton seems to think that bluster and yelling and interrupting and being rude is strength. It’s not. One of the things that you have to do as a leader is show kindness and compassion to the vulnerable. That’s part of who I am. It’s part of my character. That’s not weakness. Strength is having the capacity to go to the National Press Club, as I did, and say we are going to change the tax cuts that have been legislated because we don’t want some people to be left behind –
 

Q: Come back, let’s come back to strength. Because you gave that answer in response to a question, ‘do we need more of a hard man as a leader?’ And of course, that is how Peter Dutton has been styling himself. So, my question is, has Donald Trump come to your aid during this campaign, darkening the brand of hardmen leaders?
 
Albanese:

I think Peter Dutton has darkened his own brand. He has made a career out of promoting division, about punching down on vulnerable people, about seeking to divide the community, engaging in culture wars. What I’ve done is to try and bring people together. That’s a part of who I am.

Anthony Albanese went on 7.30 last night and was asked about some of the costings.

Q: What about student debt? How does that generate a return when you’ve just taken such a large chunk off it?
 
Albanese:

Well, that’s a benefit. That’s about intergenerational equity, Sarah. Young people feel like they’re not getting a fair crack and fair enough. And as part of our cost of living measures, we wanted to make sure that we could deliver for them, and in particular, they’ll be the big beneficiaries. 3 million Australians will get an average of $5,500 cut from their debt.

Q: But the question is, why is it sitting in an off-budget measure
 
Albanese:

Well, what it is, is making a difference by making sure that we reduce that debt. We make no apologies for that, Sarah. One of the differences at this election campaign is that the Coalition, identifying that there are cost of living pressures, identifying issues, but not coming up with any solutions. What we’ve done is, quite clearly, through a range of measures, identify where improvements can be made, whether it’s rental assistance for people who are renting, cutting student debt for students, Free TAFE to give people the option forward.
 

James Paterson does find some volunteers he has a problem with though.

Q: You’ve been quoted this morning concerned about some volunteers in Kooyong. Can you tell us about those concerns?

James Paterson:

So the Age first reported – and other media has picked this up – that an organisation connected to the united front work department, which is the overseas influence arm of the Chinese Communist Party that Xi Jinping has described as his “magic weapon” has been directing people to volunteer on the campaign of Monique Ryan in Kooyong. If those reports are confirmed, that could constitute a serious act of foreign interference which is against the law and so I think it’s critical that the Federal Police and ASIO investigate this and Monique Ryan be transparent about what involvement she’s had.

A spokesperson for Ryan told the Age:

“On April 21st, Monique attended a community dinner hosted by the Hubei Chamber of Commerce, which Mr Ji Jianmin also attended,” the spokeswoman said.

“Following the event, some attendees, including Stephen – one of the people in the video – signed up to volunteer. Monique has had no interaction with Stephen beyond being present at that dinner. Monique cannot confirm whether Jessica attended the dinner and, to her knowledge, she has not met her.

“They are not personally known to her. She is aware that they have handed out flyers at a pre-poll location in Kew, but has no knowledge of any further involvement in her campaign.”

This has been blowing up on social media and the Age recently did a report on the same – members of the Exclusive Brethren sect have been spotted handing out how to vote cards for the Liberal party at poll booths.

The sect is….problematic to say the least. Now known as the Plymouth Brethren Christian Church, the group believe the only authority is the Bible and have very strict gender rules, as well as some pretty cooked ideas about what constitutes ‘evil’

Paterson says it isn’t a problem:

There’s no religious test for participation in public life in Australia and the Liberal Party won’t start enforcing one. We do not asked ask our volunteers about their religious beliefs. Anyone who wants to sign up to our agenda to get our country back on track is very welcome to volunteer for us, regardless of their religious background. Speaking about our candidates, I can say that we have atheists, agnostics, Catholics, Anglicans, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs.

It’s probably the most diverse range of Liberal Party candidates we’ve ever put forward at a federal election because we’re united on principles of religious pluralism and religious freedom and whether you have no faith like me, or you’re a person of faith, you’re welcome in the Liberal Party.

Q: Do they share your values, though, the people within that sect? Has enough been done to vet people on the pre-polls?

Paterson:

Hang on. Are you suggesting that we should interview potential volunteers about their religious beliefs? And is that a test that just applies to this community or should we apply it to all communities? And are all parties being held to this same standard? I think that would be an extraordinary thing in a country that has no official state religion, that has freedom of religion, that we would say that some people are not welcome to participate in the political process because of their beliefs. If you support our agenda, you’re welcome to assist our campaign

And yet, the Coalition has had massive issues with people campaigning for the Greens, and Greens candidates, who oppose genocide. Huh.

Was it a mistake for Peter Dutton to so closely align himself with Donald Trump’s style of politics ahead of this campaign? James Paterson responds

There’s no need for Australians to have that concern about Peter Dutton as Prime Minister. He’d be a much stronger Prime Minister than the current one and would always stand up for our country to anybody who threat our interests and stand up for Australia in our US relationship or other relationships. Peter has demonstrated that he’s a strong leader, willing to make tough decisions whether it’s allies or enemies.

The latest Guardian Essential poll shows the two party preferred at 52-48 and Coalition campaign spokesperson James Paterson (who seems to be sent out only when Jane Hume isn’t available) says that isn’t what he is hearing on the ground.

I’ve canvassed 11 candidates and colleagues around the country in a range of different seats for their feedback and they said yesterday on pre-poll was the best reception they’ve received on pre-poll to date and it’s been pretty good generally over the first few days but yesterday was particularly strong across the country.

We’re encouraged by that.

We think the Australians who are deciding early and are turning up are very strongly backing the Coalition but of course there is a large number who have not yet made up their mind who will be tuning in particularly closely in the next couple of days to make up their mind and it’s critical from our point of view that they understand we’re going to cut their petrol tax by $14 a tank and give them up to $1200 back on tax next year and they’ll be safer under a Coalition government.

Bill Browne reported yesterday on a 180 that Jason Fallinski had seemingly done over truth in political advertising laws.

Pollietragic says:

Jason Falinski -unbelievably once regarded as a bright young rising star of the LNP, lost his seat to a Teal, scaremongered how Teals were a single party threatening democracy as he knew it. Rehoused in the executive of the NSW Liberal Party, apparently failed to operate amongst the factional war fallout of the 2022 LNP preselection bile. Rehoused now in ‘Australians For Prosperity’, comfortably cocooned amongst the the fossil fuel donors, minimising short term rejection and providing him with healing time. Aww.

Here is what Bill reported yesterday:

An interesting about-face today from former Liberal MP Jason Falinski, now head of right-wing campaign group Australians for Prosperity. He wrote in a fundraising email:

“Extremism has always benefited from an under-informed people, which is precisely why Anthony Albanese, Adam Bandt, and Simon Holmes a Court’s Teals are carrying out the most sweeping assault program of propaganda in Australian electoral history.

“Albanese is proposing to introduce Orwellian “truth in political advertising” laws that will severely limit Australians’ free speech rights.

“He is backed by Zali Steggall.”

When he was in Parliament, Falinski was a champion of truth in political advertising laws. Ahead of the 2019 election, he said:

“We definitely need rules in political advertising to make sure that people are not misleading the voters when it comes to making a decision about who to vote for. We have truth in advertising across the board. It just doesn’t apply to political campaigns.” After the election, he collaborated with independent MP Zali Steggall on a submission which used Australia Institute research to make the case for truth in political advertising laws, concluding:

“In order for Australia to keep up with international best practice and build confidence in our democratic systems we strongly urge that the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters investigates options to ensure truth in political advertising.” Truth in political advertising laws are overwhelmingly popular among Australians of all political persuasions. They have existed in South Australia for forty years, where academic research shows they are supported by most political participants, “have had no ‘chilling’ effect on freedom of speech” and “have undoubtedly changed the face of electoral campaigning” because party directors closely scrutinise all political ads for accuracy.

As Falinski pointed out in 2019, truth in advertising is no less than we already expect of for-profit corporations.

The ACT adopted truth in political advertising laws in 2020, with the unanimous support of Labor, Liberal and Greens parliamentarians, and last year Liberal Opposition Leader described them as “probably welcome”.

Australians for Prosperity has reportedly failed to authorise its social media advertising and run paid ads that feature people who did not consent to have their interviews used in that way.

Does material like this further strengthen the case for clear, nationally consistent and constitutional truth in political advertising laws?

Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson says the final Senate inquiry report into the Albanese Government’s waste reduction and recycling policies “reveals Australia is losing the war on waste and that our current and historic federal policy framework has failed”.

As if Tanya Plibersek wasn’t having a hard enough campaign as it is. I mean she had to resort to the CPRS last night on Q&A. That’s pretty desperate.

For the record, it was also 13 years ago. And it comes up so much (Jon Kudelka, one of our best cartoonists and all round incredible human added it to his Rusted On politics tea towel for a reason) the Greens have had to create a ‘why we voted against this’ page on their website)

But now it turns out we are still pretty shit when it comes to waste (surprising no one!) and maybe that is something we should act on now.

Whish-Wilson says the major parties need to “unequivocally commit to mandating our nation’s waste reduction targets, banning harmful single-use plastics, and legislating extended producer responsibility schemes in the next parliament”.

Whish-Wilson:

Plastic pollution is one of the biggest environmental challenges facing the planet – and like most environmental problems, it is also a filthy political problem. 

This report outlines compelling evidence that Australia is losing the war on waste and that our current and historic federal policy framework has failed. This is hardly surprising given our framework hinges on industry self-regulation and voluntary systems of reducing waste. 

It is absurd that Australia’s waste reduction targets are not government regulated or legally binding. Successive federal governments have chosen to put the responsibility of waste reduction and recycling at the feet of consumers, rather than hold to account the big producers, brands, and retailers of plastic packaging and other waste that is polluting our planet. 

There are many critical recommendations made by this report that our future government could act on to turn the toxic tide of waste in Australia. These include legislating a Circular Economy Act, implementing an ambitious producer-funded mandatory national product stewardship scheme, and enforcing packaging design requirements with mechanisms to drive demand for recycled materials. 

The evidence in this 200-page report is clear – there is no more time to waste. The time for constant reviews and consultation is over, we have all the evidence we need to fix the waste crisis, what we are lacking is a government with the political ambition to do it. 

In Your Comments, Simon says:

Tiny plastic soy sauce fish and those fruit stickers … its totally insane!

Sam says:

Nothing like supermarket chocolate at 7am. Life choices. Shrug.

We agree Sam. We agree.

AAP has an update on the campaign to push for gambling reform:

Gambling harm advocates are ramping up pressure on major parties in marginal seats as documents reveal a go-slow on government talks.

Paid posts comparing candidate stances on banning ads have targeted three key electorates: Gilmore in NSW, Brisbane in Queensland and Deakin in Victoria.

At least 20,000 voters in each seat have been reached ahead of the May 3 election, the Alliance for Gambling Reform says.

Labor has no public policy but has previously floated bans on gambling ads during live sports and hourly caps outside that, alongside a social media crackdown.

The coalition has proposed banning gambling ads during sports broadcasts, including an hour either side of the games.

Labor’s campaign team have been in the archives again

It’s widely predicted that Saturday’s federal election will be decided by voters feeling the cost-of-living squeeze in the outer suburbs of our capital cities.

However, it is likely that those voters’ stories are being told by journalists who cannot relate to the struggles of Australians living in the commuter belt.

New analysis by The Australia Institute reveals that more than half of Australia’s eight and a half thousand journalists live in electorates classified by the Australian Electoral Commission as “inner metropolitan”.

The report, Where Do Journalists Live?, concludes that Australia’s news media – which has already seen a sharp decline in local outlets – is not well placed to cover an election that is likely to be decided in key battleground seats where so few of its journalists reside.

Key findings:

• Inner-metropolitan electorates are home to an average of 111 journalists, followed by provincial (41), rural (35) and outer-metropolitan (31) electorates.
• Seats held by Liberal and Nationals MPs have the lowest average number of journalists living in them, with Labor seats slightly above average and seats held by Greens and Independents having more than double the average.
• Few journalists live in electorates where most people speak a language other than English at home.
• The electorates with the most journalists are all in inner Sydney. They are: Sydney (411 journalists – Labor), Wentworth (394 – Independent), Grayndler (366 – Labor) and Warringah (268 – Independent).
• The electorates with the fewest journalists are all outer-metropolitan. They are: Calwell (4 journalists – VIC, Labor), Brand (7 – WA, Labor), Spence (9 – SA, Labor) and Holt (9 – VIC, Labor).

“It seems unlikely the Australian media is adequately prepared to cover an election fought in the outer suburbs where few reporters live,” said Stephen Long, Senior Fellow and Contributing Editor at The Australia Institute.

“The decline in local media has exacerbated the skewing of where journalists live to the inner city. 

‘The death of news outlets in the outer suburbs and regions is not healthy in a democracy – and we need to look at new models to counter this trend.

“Australians need news that tells local stories and reflects the diversity of the country. To achieve that, they need journalists who live in a range of diverse locations.”

Q: Have you done enough to speak to Indigenous people post the referendum in the last 18 months? There’s some evidence of a high level of distress about the level of racism and abuse in the community. Are you speaking to that enough in the campaign?

Gallagher:

Look, I think so. I think the Prime Minister’s speech at Garma following the referendum was a really important one which sort of put out our Government’s view of the next steps, acknowledging the hurt and trauma that came with the referendum and the result that, you know, I think provided a lot of distress to many communities around Australia and so the focus really is on, I think, working with communities, First Nations communities, about the supports and investments that support their self-determination, whether it be in economic opportunities or in health or in education and that’s the work that’s under way now, led of course by that amazing woman, Malarndirri McCarthy and her team. There’s more to do, clearly, Bridget, but we remain deeply committed to it.

A reminder that we are only talking about Welcome to Country ceremonies because literal Nazis gatecrashed a dawn Anzac Day service and yelled over the Welcome to Country and then journalists asked politicians about it and Peter Dutton and co started saying that they thought the ceremonies were ‘overdone’ and now we are having a national conversation about questions asked by literal Nazis.

So yeah. Well done all involved. Way to legitimise Nazis.

Gallagher is asked if Labor will defend Welcome to Country ceremonies and says:

The Government has a position that this is a measure of respect to support Welcome to Country. The Prime Minister has been clear on that. I think, you know, the issue that Peter Dutton has raised in the last couple of days is to distract away from the train wreck of a campaign they’re having and also the fact that they don’t want to talk about nuclear and he’s got form on this. We see it as a measure of respect.

We’re very proud of the fact that we share this land with the world’s oldest continuous culture and I see that organisations, you know, who do make their own decisions about whether to have a Welcome to Country ceremony at the beginning of events, you know, have come out and, you know, not only did Peter Dutton verbal the Indonesian Prime Minister, it now appears the many RSL organisations as well. I think most Australians are generous of spirit and see this as an important part of acknowledging our history.

Yes, but given that organisations like the Melbourne Storm (knew I was right to never like them) didn’t hold a Welcome to Country on Anzac Day (which it later claimed was an “administrative oversight” will the Albanese government continue to fund them?

Also a reminder – we are talking about this because of Nazis. NAZIS.

Gallagher:

We haven’t made any changes to the way that we would be operating in the first term to how we would operate in the second term.

FFS.

Is Katy Gallagher worried about Australia’s AAA credit rating?

Gallagher:

We released our costings yesterday afternoon which show that our responsible economic management – and we are offsetting all the commitments we’ve made since the pre-election fiscal outlook was released at the beginning of the campaign – and I think that’s in line with the concerns that S&P have raised because it’s responding to that and ensuring the Budget is in better shape at the end of the campaign for Labor than it was in the beginning, just slightly improved, and that shows how seriously we take this. We do need to find savings across government. We are putting them on the table. We’re being upfront. We’ve released our costings and now it’s time for Peter Dutton and his team to release their costings and secret cuts they’ll need to make for nuclear reactors.

As Grogs said yesterday – stop worrying about the AAA:

A lot is being made about S&P warning that big spending may make Australia’s AAA rating at risk.

I’ll just overlook that S&P was one of the ratings agencies that help cause the Global Financial Crisis and just note that ratings agencies always say this and then well… not much happens.

The reality is the best way to gauge the risk of Australia’s debt is to look at the 10 year bond yield on Australian government bonds. In effect this is the interest rate the government pays when it borrows money. At the moment the rate is around 4.4%. Back when S&P gave Australia a AAA rating and back when Australia had budget surpluses due to the mining boom, the rate was around 5.5%.

Australia is seen as less risky now to lend money to than it was when we had no net debt.

Does Katy Gallagher think that the Canada election can predict what might happen in Australia? (After being written off, the Canadian Liberals (its more progressive mainstream party) have staged a comeback under new leader former central banker Mark Carney, who took a strong stance of standing against Donald Trump very early in his leadership)

Gallagher:

I don’t think so, necessarily. Obviously different countries, different issues. I think the contest here – and people are pretty switched onto it – is between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton and I think there’s a…there’s certainly a feeling around the need for stability in these uncertain times, if you were to look at international events. I think that’s probably an issue and the need to hold the course and continue to, you know, build on the work that government has done in the last three years. I think when it comes to the Trump influence or the American influence, I think certainly in policies where we’ve seen, particularly from the Opposition, the Americanisation of, say, Medicare or working from home, those types of things, naive definitely been a factor in this campaign.

Finance minister Katy Gallagher is speaking to ABC News Breakfast this morning and is asked about pre-poll:

The pre-polls are busy. I think as you’ve been tracking this week, you know, lots of people voting early as we’ve seen in previous elections. I don’t think it’s any surprise that cost of living is the main focus, certainly in the discussions I’ve been having, and you wouldn’t be surprised to hear in Canberra that there’s concerns about Peter Dutton and cuts and nuclear basically. They seem to be the three issues that keep continuously being raised.

Hello, good morning, welcome.

We start the day with Anthony Albanese in Brisbane and Peter Dutton in Melbourne.

Both major parties are now spending their resources where they matter – seats it is possible to win and seats they absolutely must defend.

Labor think they can take Brisbane from the Greens, while the Coalition have remembered the teal seats exist and that they once held them. So it is Kooyong and Goldstein on the list today (which means more Amelia Harmer and Tim Wilson. Huzzah.)

After releasing costings yesterday, Labor will spend the day pointing out that the Coalition is still to say how it will pay for its election promises, while both continue to accuse the other of a spendathon (which is basically the spiderman pointing at each other meme).

We will cover the day for you, with fact checks where needed, as it happens.

You have Amy Remeikis on the blog, with Greg Jericho jumping in, along with the rest of the Australia Institute brains trust. Coffee number two is on the stove and almost ready (it is so necessary) and my stress eating is reaching new heights, so RIP to that block of chocolate I tried to hide from myself.

Ready?

Let’s get into it.