Jim Chalmers (and Grogs):

Unemployment is now projected to peak lower, at 4¼ per cent. [This is big item in the budget papers for economic nerds – the Treasury is telling the RBA it is wrong – we can have unemployment at 4.25% without any pressure on inflation. The RBA still thinks it is 4.5%. Of course the whole “NAIRU” is a bit of mythical thing, but at least here the Government is saying 4.25% is the aim, not 4.5%]

Employment and real wage growth this year will be stronger, and participation will stay near its record high for longer. [The government is arguing the removing non-compete clauses for workers will raise wage growth. It’s a good move. One that Joseph Stiglitz talked a lot about last year when he was out here as a guest for our 10 year anniversary. Non-compete clauses mean for example someone can’t go from working in Big W to K Mart. They make sense for executives stopping them going from say Westpac to ANZ, but not for bank tellers or people working in a store – if you can’t compete, then companies don’t need to compete for workers by offering higher wages]

Inflation is coming down faster as well.

Treasury now expects inflation to be sustainably back in the band six months earlier than anticipated.

All of this means the soft landing we have been planning and preparing for is looking more and more likely.

Because of our collective efforts, the worst is behind us and the economy is now heading in the right direction.